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레이 달리오의 '세계 질서 7단계' 프레임을 소개하며 미국이 6단계(혁명과 전쟁) 진입 가능성을 경고. 3대 리스크로 관세발 정치적 경기침체, 외국인 자금 유입 감소에 따른 미국 자산 리스크, AI 경쟁을 제시. 분산투자(주식, 금, 원자재, 암호화폐, 부동산 등)를 권고하며 유료 강의를 홍보.
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Rayio claims that the United States could be on the verge of a financial reset unlike anything seen in almost 100 years. And according to Rayalio, it's not a recession; he's worried about something worse. What is it about ? Well, he calls it a financial heart attack due to the multiple economic factors converging at the same time.
That's why in this video I want to break down what Ridalio is seeing. That way you can understand different people's philosophies about where the economy is headed. That way you can win whether the economy goes up, down, or sideways. Ryio is the founder of Bridge Water, which is the world's largest hedge fund .
In 2018, Rayio warned Americans about a debt crisis that has not yet occurred. Well, after the 2020 pandemic, Ryio's warnings didn't disappear, they were amplified even more. In 2022, Ryio posted this on his LinkedIn. The changing world order is approaching stage six, the stage of war. In Ray Dio's book The Changing World Order, which is a great book by the way, I recommend everyone read it, he highlights the seven stages that every empire goes through, which his company has studied over the last few centuries, including the US dollar, including the British pound before that, including the Dutch guilder before that, and how every empire has risen and fallen following the same seven patterns.
He says they always start here at stage one, when the new world order is established . And what that usually means is that there is a new world reserve currency, like in 1944, which was when the United States dollar became the world reserve currency after World War II . After that comes stage two, which is an era of peace, prosperity, and productive debt growth.
And generally, this new world order comes after some kind of war, as we saw with World War II here. And after that time, peace is seen because now there is this new currency and the world respects this new world order. And this creates an opportunity for the growth of productive debt, because now you have this new strong economy, this new strong currency.
Then, this country can borrow dollars productively and invest them in the country and produce more growth, more economic growth, and see increased productivity. In stage three the debt bubble begins and the wealth gap widens. Initially, the government borrows sustainably and increases productivity. Okay, when you start to see more growth, you want to keep feeding it faster and faster, and to do that you need to keep borrowing, which creates more debt problems, and that starts to create more wealth inequality because you start to see more inflation, and then inflation disproportionately benefits the financially educated and the rich, making everyone else poorer.
Fifty years ago, you didn't need as much money to buy a house, you didn't need as much money to buy a car, since the economic disparity was less than it is now. And this is a common trend that Ry Dallio has observed across civilizations for centuries. This leads to phase four, the explosion of debt and an economic recession.
We saw this happen in 2008 when the debt bubble burst, leading to the great financial crisis, which in turn led to a severe economic recession. The worst recession we 've seen since the Great Depression, and then we saw something similar happen during the pandemic, although during the pandemic it wasn't really due to the economy, it was a shutdown of the economy that then led to a collapse of debt problems that were then resolved through more money printing, although resolved might not be the right answer, but it mitigated the pain of that recession.
This then leads to stage five, which is the printing of money and credit as a way to stimulate the economy. Do you see this recession happening? We saw it happen in 2008 and now the Federal Reserve Bank has begun to print quantitative easing. They printed one trillion dollars to stimulate the economy.
We saw the same thing happen in 2020. We saw trillions of dollars printed and injected into the economy to save it, which created that band-aid. But it creates a problem, and the problem is the debasement of our currency, the devaluation of our currency, which means that the dollar loses value, inflation increases, the wealth gap widens, the average person gets poorer, and the rich get richer.
That's stage five, and that's a problem we've been seeing happen, and this is where Ryio says on his LinkedIn that we're entering stage six. Stage six, according to Ry Dalio, is revolution and wars. And this is where what Rydalio says is that people get fed up with this wider wealth gap, so you start to see more unrest within the country, which means that more of the country's resources are used to keep the country together instead of protecting the country against foreign threats.
And this creates opportunities for foreign countries to attack and take over that leading country, that leading empire, because the country is weakening because its own country is no longer united. This leads to stage seven, which is debt and political restructuring. Rydalio calls this the final stage of an empire, because after this everything restarts again and then you have a new world order and then you start to see the same cycle happen again and usually in the past Rydalio says that these kinds of cycles take between 50 and 150 years.
That's why we don't really notice them because they only happen once in a lifetime. Now, for total transparency, Raidalio says there are things an empire can do to extend its lifespan. Just as there are things you can do to extend your life by eating healthily and exercising, there are things that countries and empires can do to extend their own lifespan, such as by managing their national debt, controlling inflation, and keeping the country united.
These are things that can be done to extend the lifespan. But there are three things that Ray Dalio and his firm have been highlighting recently that may indicate where the economy and world order are going to move next, which I want to highlight for you. Again, I'm recording videos from various angles, because there are as many financial opinions as armpits, and some smell worse than others, but the smartest thing you can do is understand the different points of view.
That way you can be a smarter investor. And the three things Rayio is talking about right now are a possible politically induced recession . I'm going to explain what that means. Number two are the risks to US assets. Number three is artificial intelligence. Let's break this down into 1, 2, and 3 points.
Remember, this is key for investors or future investors. I've prepared a new investment masterclass in which I explain how you can start investing and find hidden investment opportunities before anyone else. And I'll show you the exact system my company and I use to research investment opportunities before they make headlines.
This masterclass offers great value and is completely free. By registering you will also gain access to market summaries and My Investor Newsletter. Get the investment masterclass and market summaries for free by clicking the link below in the description. Starting now with this politically induced recession, Ray Dalio says that the tariffs imposed by the United States will cause an economic slowdown around the world, which could put us in a recession.
Now, so far, we haven't really seen much inflation due to tariffs, but at the same time you have people saying that price increases due to tariffs are coming. Companies have postponed price increases as much as possible, but in 2026 you will notice increases in your budget. Once again, nobody knows what's really going to happen.
Ultimately, we're going to have to wait and see, but we know that the United States has imposed tariffs on many countries around the world, which means that companies that import products from those foreign countries will have to pay a fee to bring that product into the United States. This means their profit margins will be reduced, or they will have to raise their prices to maintain their profit margins.
Or those same companies will have to import those products from a different foreign country that doesn't have those tariffs, or they will have to bring that manufacturing, bringing that product to the United States. to do it here, which could have higher costs because producing a product in the United States is more expensive than producing the same product in China or India.
So there are a few things happening at the same time and companies are trying to find ways to manage those higher costs , but in the next three to six to nine months we should really understand whether these tariffs are going to lead to higher prices or not. The second risk that Ryio's firm mentions is the risk to US assets, because foreign investors are investing less aggressively in the United States.
Read this. We see exceptional risks to US assets that depend on foreign inflows. Again, this is a quote from Bridge Water, which is Raidio's hedge fund, and the price of any asset ultimately depends on supply and demand. When you have more buyers than sellers for an asset, whether it's a house, a stock, a piece of gold, when you have more buyers than sellers, the price of that asset goes up.
When there are more sellers than buyers, the price of that asset falls. Because when there are more buyers than sellers, the buyers fight each other to get that asset. And what do they do? They engage in a bidding war and drive up the price of the asset. When there are more sellers than buyers, sellers compete with each other to sell their asset.
And how do they compete? reducing the price of your asset. Now, the reason this matters is because since 2021 we have been seeing a steady decline in foreign investment in the United States. On one hand, that's good because it means you don't have to compete against foreign investors if you're in the United States .
But on the other hand, that's bad because if there are fewer buyers, fewer investors in the United States, then there is less demand for those same assets, which is less upward pressure on prices because you have fewer potential buyers. There is still no final report on what will happen in 2025. Some investors suggest that 2025 was worse due to concerns about tariffs and the stability of the US dollar.
Therefore, foreign investors could seek assets outside the US, which would reduce demand for US assets. If this trend persists and foreign investors reduce their investments in the US, this could imply a reduction in demand for US assets and less upward pressure if the flow of dollars decreases. And then we have number three, which is possibly the most important factor right now, which is artificial intelligence, because there are trillions of dollars flowing into AI companies and countries are fighting to be the world's leading expert in AI.
The reason is that AI is going to change the trajectory of the world economy, and the country that possesses the largest share of the artificial intelligence market will be the one that succeeds. Well, that country is going to see its economy boom and you can bet that can extend this life a lot because this is the biggest change we 've seen in our economy since the internet, but it's being adopted at a much faster pace.
It took the internet three decades to reach 1 billion users. We're talking about 30 years. Chat GPT took about 3 years to reach the same mark of 1 billion users. The internet was the biggest change in our economy in modern history, and the United States of America was home to most of this internet change.
That is, we have Meta, we have Amazon, we have Netflix, we have Uber, and in second place is China with Alibaba and TikTok, but the United States was a clear winner. AI is currently leading the next wave of global economic change, and the countries that control the most of that AI change will own a significant portion of the world economy.
This is why Dubai is investing money in artificial intelligence startups. China is competing in artificial intelligence while the UK is investing in this field to avoid falling behind. Well, in 2024 the winner of AI investment is the United States by a wide margin, but the winner of this race has yet to be crowned.
Now, I know all of this may seem very overwhelming, very intimidating, and the final question is, what the heck does this mean for you? Should I panic and be scared? No, according to Rey Dalio, what this means for you is that it creates opportunities, but it creates opportunities for those who are knowledgeable about finance.
And this is where what he says about having true asset diversification can be very useful. This includes investing your money in things like the US stock market , investing in things like foreign stocks, which by the way can be invested in foreign stock ETFs on the US stock market . This includes investing your money in things like U.S.
Treasury bonds. This includes investing your money in things like raw materials, physical gold, and oil. This includes investing your money in things like cryptocurrencies. This includes investing your money in things like physical real estate. Now, with this protection, when one asset falls, another asset may be rising at the same time, keeping you safe.
This is how you can protect yourself from what may come in the economy, because we know that volatility is coming. 2025 has been one of the most volatile years for the stock market in history, partly due to tariffs. But now with all these changes happening, with things like policy changes, with tariffs, we have risks to US assets, with dollars perhaps not entering the US as quickly as before, with changes in the global economy with things like AI.
All these things can create volatility, but that also creates opportunities for those who know their finances. And this is where having a simple portfolio where your money is invested in a single asset comes in. It's riskier now than it was 50 years ago. But for finance experts, this actually creates more opportunities.
And if you understand this, you can now build a more diversified portfolio and see more upside potential now that you understand what's going on . If you'd like more resources, I recommend my masterclass on free investing, where you'll learn how to research investment opportunities to always stay one step ahead.
I have that link for you in the description. The United States government owes more than 37 trillion dollars. That means your taxes are being used to pay interest on all that debt. And this is where President Trump has been proposing a new plan to help pay off this debt that involves gold and crypto.
And most people have no idea how this plan works or what this new plan means for their money.
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