저자: MinorityMindsetEnEspañol채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼의 인플레이션 경고를 인용하며, 미국 정부 지출이 2019년 이후 급증하고 재정적자가 확대되어 향후 인플레이션이 재가속할 수 있다고 주장. 4월 CPI는 기대치에 부합했으나 연준 목표 2%와 거리가 있어 승리로 보기 어렵다고 함. 연준은 경기와 인플레이션 사이 줄타기 중이며 선거연도 정치 압력이 있다고 설명. 이후 금융 교육·투자 전략(현금흐름 준비, 추세 이해)을 강조하고 Bridgewater CEO의 향후 10~15년 경제 전망 언급으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
Jamie Diamond criticized the Federal Reserve Bank last week in an interview because he said inflation is n't coming down as the Fed claims. He said we could see higher interest rates for longer and that there's still a possibility of a hard landing. Everyone says there's no more talk of a recession.
Listen to that. So I'm a little cautious about thinking that looking at the monthly numbers, yes or no, will tell you what next year will bring. He's referring to the latest inflation figures, which show that although inflation has come down a bit, that doesn't mean inflation will remain calm in 2025.
Interestingly, part of the reason he says this is because the Fed Bank keeps printing money to fund government spending, which ultimately creates more inflation. He added that restructuring trade could be part of it. We still don't know exactly how inflationary the green economy will be. Fiscal spending is inflationary.
Commodity prices—if we look at copper or oil— will be scarce for a couple of years. In the years to come, inflation could increase in the future due to various causes, but today is not one of those days. In this video, I'd like to address Jamie Diamond's concerns about our economy and also talk about the direction inflation is heading.
And number three is that I want to talk about what you need to know and understand, so let's start by talking about number one. Jamie Diamond is worried about our economy. What he says is that many people in the United States are focusing on short-term inflation trends, but what he says is that might not be an indication of what's coming with inflation next year or the year after that.
And the main culprit for this, according to Jamie Diamond, is government spending and government borrowing. I think fiscal stimulus is still high, and it's a global phenomenon. Yes, since COVID, a lot of money has been spent. There was a lot of spending and things like that. They're still kind of surfacing through the system.
Now, I know these numbers seem very alarming, but let me break down exactly what it says and means. In 2019, before the pandemic, the US government spent $4.4 trillion with a deficit of 948 trillion. I'll explain what that means. In 2020, with the pandemic, the government spent $7 trillion, which increased spending and also increased the national deficit to $3.1 trillion.
In 2021, the government spent $6.8 trillion with a deficit of $2.7 trillion. In 2022, spending was $6.1 trillion with a deficit of $1.4 trillion. In 2023, they again spent $6.1 trillion with a deficit of $1.7 trillion. For 2024, spending is expected to be $6.5 trillion with a deficit of approximately $1.6 trillion, and in 2025, it is estimated that the government will spend $7.3 trillion with a deficit of $ 0.8 trillion.
Now, the reason this is so significant is that between 2000, 2019, and 2024, in the last five years, government spending has skyrocketed by 49%. by. Well, inflation in the last 5 years at least the declared inflation is less than 23 percent. That means the government is spending money twice as fast as the inflation figures report, and that money has to come from somewhere because the government ultimately only has one source of income, and that income is taxpayers through taxes.
You go to work to get paid, you pay government taxes; you run a business and make a profit, you pay government taxes; you sell your investments and make a profit, you pay government taxes. So now the government makes tax dollars, and the more taxes it earns, the more it can spend. But what they've been doing is spending more money, but they've also been increasing the national deficit.
Remember, before the pandemic, the government had less than a trillion dollars of national deficit; now it's a national deficit of 1.6 trillion dollars. What does that mean? If they spend money they don't have, well, think of it this way: if the government wants to build a highway and it's going to cost a million dollars, hypothetically, it can do two things to get the money.
It can impose a tax on you and me to raise 1 million dollars and build a highway. They need to get the votes, get their approval, and then collect this tax from us. Getting the money to build the highway. But that can be difficult because tax increases aren't very exciting. Unless you're saying, "Tax that person, not me," that's how it works.
But that's not so easy. So what the government has been doing is, instead of raising taxes to increase spending, increasing spending without raising taxes. Which may sound a little strange. So how do you increase spending without raising taxes? How do you keep spending more money without making more money?
And what they've been doing is borrowing money to keep spending money. And now, where does the government borrow this money from? Well, you and I can go out and lend money to the United States government. This is called a treasury, right? Anyone can go and lend money to the United States government, but the biggest buyer of these treasuries is the Federal Reserve Bank.
The Federal Reserve Bank is the central bank of the United States, and they have the special little power to essentially print money. So now, if the government wants to spend one six trillion dollars that they don't have, if they want to build highways, if they want to build bridges, if they want to do whatever they want, now they have to raise funds, but I don't have a A trillion dollars, you don't either.
So what do you do? You call the Federal Reserve Bank and request a trillion and a half or even 600,000 trillion. What's the difference? A minimal rounding error. Could you give us the money? Now the Federal Reserve Bank can print it and lend it to the US government. Suddenly the government has an extra $1.6 trillion to spend in the economy, investing in bridges and highways.
They can create jobs. They can do all these things that stimulate the economy. But there's a small consequence here, which is what Jamie Diamond is talking about: inflation. Because remember what caused the inflation problems we've been seeing? Now, a lot of people have different opinions about this, but the ultimate root cause, the root cause of inflation, was the Federal Reserve Bank in the first place.
Because when you print money, that devalues the individual dollars we have. Right? If the Federal Reserve Bank doubles the amount of dollars in circulation, it effectively reduces the value of each individual dollar we have in our bank accounts and in our pockets because now there's more currency available to value each individual dollar.
It goes down to... Right, you can print more dollars, but you can't print more wealth. And that's what you have to understand: there's a difference between what we call money, our currency, and wealth. Look, it's easy to print dollars, but wealth has to be created. You have to work to create wealth.
It costs about $13 to print a $100 bill, but it takes a lot of work to produce $100. Now, of course, $100 worth of work today is different from $100 worth of work in 2019. But this is where what Jamie Diamond says comes in: well, we're still increasing spending. I mean, we're spending $65 trillion now through the government, which is almost 50% more than we were doing five years ago, which is already extremely high.
Now it's extremely, extremely high. We've increased our national deficit by more than 60% . Which means the government is spending more and more money it doesn't have, which is inflationary. Now, you might say, "Well, some of these things are good, but they could be." But you know what? Buying organic food is also fine, but you have to have the money to be able to afford it, or you have to spend the money first.
And that's the dilemma. And this is what Jamie Diamond is saying: Sure, you can spend the money first, but then you may have to pay the consequences later. You have to pay the price later through inflation. And this brings me to the second part of the video, which is really understanding where we are with inflation and where inflation is going.
So, if we go back to the beginning of 2024, when we got the January inflation figures, they were higher than expected. When we got the February inflation figures, they were higher than expected. When we got the March inflation figures, they were higher than expected. And when we got the April inflation figures, they came in line with expectations.
And this is why many people now feel they are winning the fight against inflation. The inflation numbers in April met expectations of cooling it down, reaching... 3.4 per. However, Jamie Diamond warns that the government is increasing spending, which could worsen inflation next year. Nevertheless, 3.4% inflation is not a victory, especially when the Federal Reserve is aiming for 2%.
Although there's still a way to go, remember that even 2% inflation still implies price increases, albeit not as rapid as before. So, if you're wondering where inflation is headed, well, it really depends on what the Federal Reserve does. There's a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve to help stimulate the economy because the economy and inflation go hand in hand in different directions.
If the Federal Reserve were to lower interest rates tomorrow, what would that do? It would stimulate the economy. More people would buy houses, real estate agents would earn their commissions, mortgage brokers would earn more commissions, title dealers would earn more commissions, and house prices would likely rise.
You'd have more equity in your home, you'd see more refinancing, and you'd see more spending. But then there are the consequences: the problem of inflation also worsens, and this is where the Federal Reserve comes in. It's a kind of balancing act, this balancing act: on the one hand, trying to balance inflation; on the other hand, trying to balance the economy and not push the United States into a deep recession.
And now, when they're trying to do this, this tightrope walk, what they want to do is bring inflation down without having a deep recession because—guess what?—a lot of people say we 're already in a recession. The economy is still strong, people are still getting paid, people still have jobs. They may not be the best jobs, people may be struggling, but it's still not what we were in 2008 when we were facing real difficulties in the economy.
I understand, a lot of Americans are facing difficulties, but it could be worse. And this is where the Federal Reserve is doing this balancing act. During an election year, you have to imagine there's a lot of political pressure to keep the economy strong because that's good for whoever is in office.
I don't care if you're a Democrat or a Republican, it's the same thing. If you want to be re-elected, you want to have a strong economy when it comes time for your re-election. And that's, of course, why Jamie Diamond says again that there's still a risk of a hard landing. The United States, that is, the risks of a recession in the United States.
Although many people have completely dismissed this idea of any slowdown occurring in the US economy, which brings us to number three, what you need to know to watch this video: You probably need to have more financial knowledge; you need to be more interested in finance and education and in building your wealth; you are interested in investing; maybe you have already started.
The key here is to understand that our economy goes through cycles. And that is fundamental: our economy goes up and down; this has happened every decade for the last century. We see cycles like this, just as we see asset cycles. We see real estate prices go up and down, up and down; we see stock markets go up and down, up and down.
Our economy also goes up and down, up and down. What you have to understand is that no market can go up or down forever, which means that you must be able to profit regardless of the market you are in. And that means, number one, that you want to be able to profit even when the markets are going up, and also, number two, be able to find the opportunity when the markets are going down.
But for that to happen, you have to do three things. One thing is that you have to be financially prepared. Number two is that you have to be financially educated. And the third is that you have to understand the trends. So when it comes to being prepared, that means you have to have cash on hand to invest.
Now, how you invest is a different matter. I'm going to go over that in this video. But the way you invest is really that you have to have the money to invest, which means you can't spend all of it. And that means you have to control your finances, have money coming in from your job or your business, and then not all of it going out.
Now you have a lot of money to invest. How you invest depends on your strategy and whether you want to invest in stocks, real estate, or other things. It depends on whether you're looking for cash flow or growth. It's important to keep your goals in mind when defining your strategy. I have tons of videos on my channel where I talk about how to do that.
The second thing is that you have to be financially educated, which means how to choose your investments and how to choose your investment strategy. Your financial education is all about what you're investing in and how you're investing in it. If you're investing in real estate, how do you find a good property?
What are the... Your goals. How do you choose a good team? How do you actually manage your assets and how do you maximize cash flow? To invest in stocks, or to invest in index funds, or ETFs, or mutual funds? Or to invest in individual companies, or to invest your money every week? What's your strategy?
And what kind of investments are you going to make? That's what your financial education is all about. Again, I have a lot of resources on my channel about that. You can read books on this topic, you can take classes on this topic. There are many ways to invest in financial education, and you can also go out and do it to learn.
I mean, you can do all of that: read books, watch YouTube videos, listen to podcasts, and also go out and do it to build your financial education because, well, you have to do it. Investing is risky; you're going to lose money at some point, and don't blindly listen to just any guy on YouTube. Small disclaimer on that.
And number three is that you have to understand the trends. And this is really understanding now what industry you're going to invest in because what you want to do now is be an investor. You want a position of money; you're the captain of your money, and you want to be sending your money where the flow is going to go tomorrow, next year, or the year after that, not where it was last year.
It consists of understanding the trends. We do a lot of this in media summaries and market summaries. My newsletter tries to cover what's happening so you can get ahead of events and not be the person who's always behind. Because if you only make decisions based on what's in the news, you've already missed it.
And this is where your job is to pay attention to what's happening and not be an emotional investor, but rather understand the trends. We can be long-term investors but also be ahead of what's happening in the markets. They innovated the way they invest money and have been able to get very good returns in recent years.
And what the CEO of Bridgewater is saying now is that the next 10 or 15 years of the economy might not be like the last 15 years. Take a look. When you look at the last 15 years, the stars
Comments 0