Researcher Ed Yardeni shares his case for the 'roaring 2020s'

요약 보기

1920년대식 생산성 주도 성장(roaring 2020s)이 이어진다는 낙관론. 실질 GDP와 소비가 사상 최고치이며 생산성 향상이 인플레이션을 억제할 것으로 봄. 다만 재정부양(세금환급)과 연준의 국채매입(월 400억달러)이 겹쳐 상반기에는 채권시장 불안과 변동성이 예상되며, 10년 국채금리는 4~5%가 정상 수준이라고 주장. 금리 인하는 노동시장에 큰 도움이 되지 않고 귀금속 등 자산 인플레를 자극할 것이라 우려. 2026년 증시는 약 10% 상승을 예상하나 상반기는 험난할 수 있음.

다듬은 글

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01. The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research. He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup. Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade.

02. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, the supply chain disruptions, inflation, the Fed tightening tariffs, and here we are at an all-time record high for real GDP, all-time record high for real consumer spending and real consumer spending per household.

03. Pretty good. What messes up the story? I I think we need to explore that, right? I had three people I had three people on top of the show largely bullish. I just finished an interview with Kevin Simpson. He's bullish. makes the comments hard to be anything but, which makes people nervous and says that's exactly a reason maybe not to be as bullish.

04. I agree. I agree. It's something to be concerned about. Uh look, I'm expecting that we'll get up uh be up by 10% next year, but I'm I am thinking that maybe in the first half of the year, it's going to be a rough rough going as as it was at the beginning of this year. And what I am concerned about here is u we've got sort of a confluence of two policies fiscal and monetary policies that are going to be very stimulative at the beginning of the year.

05. monetary policy is on course to buy $40 billion per month in Treasury bills uh through April of next year. And uh the uh fiscal authorities uh are about to give us uh some pretty substantial refunds uh in the April uh period reflecting the fact that the big beautiful bill re did not take the uh tax cut into consideration.

06. It was retroactive. So, we're going to have some pretty substantial fiscal stimulus as well and um some pretty large deficit numbers, I would think. I mean, the money has to come from somewhere and it's going to be deficit financed. So, the bond market gets spooked by all that. And the bond market really hasn't cooperate has not been cooperating with the Fed.

07. The Fed's lowered rates by 175 basis points since uh 2024 and the bond yield is still above 4%. So when you have people like Torsten Slack and others say hire for longer and investors need to adjust themselves to that idea. Sounds like you're one of them. Yeah, I've been in that camp for a while. I've been arguing uh for quite some time that uh bond yields are kind of back to normal.

08. They should be between four and 5%. I really don't have a a problem with that what whatsoever. That's where they were before the great financial crisis. Uh I see productivity led growth. I mean certainly the second and third quarter numbers for GDP suggests productivity led growth. Uh that implies that the uh so-called uh normal interest rates or the neutral interest rate isn't 3%, it's probably more like 4%.

09. So I think a lot of the what the Fed's doing here in terms of easing is not going to help the labor market very much because of structural problems there. Uh but it is going to continue to fuel asset inflation as we're seeing particularly now in precious metals. So we don't even need rate cuts at this point.

10. But you know there are some who say but some who say they they should just do it anyway as we discussed with Steve Leeman. Just follow the Greenspan model from the the mid90s when there were the same concerns or at least similar. Sure. Today then that there are there are today. But productivity saved the day.

11. And you've been talking so much about that same thing. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean it's the roaring 2020s is based on productivityled economic growth. I think uh we've seen a fair amount of it. I think we'll see more of it over the uh the rest of the decade. That will keep inflation down. But again, I think that in that kind of environment, you don't need lower interest rates.

12. Uh normal interest rates is what you need. And normal interest rates, I think more like four to 5% in a roaring 2020 scenario. I I don't want a meltup meltdown scenario. And uh Greenspan certainly uh gave us some of that in the late 1990s and 2000.