저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
2025년 초 제기한 거시 질문들의 결과를 점검. 10년물 국채금리가 4%를 먼저 하회(4월 3.88% 저점)했고 현재 약 4.15%. 고용시장은 약화(6개월 평균 약 1.7만 명 증가, 실업률 4.0%→4.6%). 트럼프 행정부 정책은 관세 발표 후 급락 뒤 되돌림으로 나스닥 +21%, S&P500 +17%, 다우 +14%. 정부 셧다운(43일)은 영향 제한적. S&P500 이익 전망은 2025년 소폭 상향, 2026년 이익성장률 기대치 약 14%로 상승(월가 기존 12%)이며 이 전망 달성이 2026년 상승장의 전제라고 강조.
다듬은 글
At the very beginning of the year, we ran this three-part segment on my 25 questions for 20 2025. Look, I came up with four big macro questions. One question for each of the 11 major sectors, and of course, 10 tech specific questions. So, now that the year is nearly over, let's talk about the answers.
First question, does the yield on the 10-year Treasury go to 4% or 5% first or neither? At the time, the tenure was sitting at just over 4.5%. This is one where we got a definitive answer because the tenure went to 4% first. Given that so much wealth from housing to your portfolio is related to the tenure, we have to follow like a hawk.
What happened in 2025? Specifically, the tenure broke below 4% briefly in that post liberation day wash spring, setting a 52- week low of 3.88 in April. More recently, now the Fed started cutting short-term interest rates. The tenure has touched the 4% level a couple times. First in mid-Sepptemeber, then mid-occtober, and then again in late November.
Of course, the bulls would feel better if the tenure had fallen below 4%. And stayed there. But that's not the case with benchmark yield currently sitting at about 4.15%. Don't let anyone scare you. That's fine. Fine for stocks. And there's a lack of consensus about how much help we can realistically expect from the Federal Reserve next year.
Not even the members of the open uh market committee can agree on the number of rate cuts that are needed. Say nothing about investors or people betting in the predictions market. The second question for 2025, we wanted to know whether the labor market would remain tight. And here the answer seems to be seem to be definitive.
No. We went from adding over 100,000 jobs per month in the first few months of the year to averaging around 17,000 jobs added over the course of the past 6 months, meaning June through November. That's actually kind of pathetic. In June, August and October, job growth was actually negative. And that I'm going to call that bad.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rates rise from 4% in January to 4.6% in November. That's not good either. Now, the silver lining here is the fact that the labor market weakness has allowed the Fed to remain our friend. But to answer the question from the beginning of the year, no, the labor market has not remained tight.
Third question, we asked what uh what what's going on in Washington, specifically what's going to happen. Now, that was a catchual question. What I was really asking was how the Trump administration would impact stocks. Uh in retrospect, though, maybe I should have been more detailed because Trump 2.0 cuts in many different directions.
Long story short, the NASDAQ indices up over 21% for the year. That's incredible. S&P up almost 17%. I'll take it. And the Dow closest 14%. The Trump administration has overall been just fine for stocks. Of course, it didn't look that way initially. The year began with this huge pullback with the S&P falling 21% in anticipation of the president's increasingly hardline tariff agenda.
And in response to those initial liberation day tariffs rates that were announced in early April. But once the president reduced or postpone most of those tariffs, the market bounced back and bounced back quickly. It spent most of the year since then rising gradually. whether you love him or Trump or whether you hate him.
I look if he does something that truly panics the market, he tends to roll it back. Now, the only major piece of legislation out of Washington this year, the one big beautiful bill act didn't impact stocks much yet. In fact, some of the specific policies in the OBBBA uh concerned immediate expensing of capital investments might actually be underappreciated as a huge catalyst as we enter 2026.
It could boost earnings dramatically, but no one's talking about there. I just did. And the government shut down this fall. The largest longest in history in 43 days. Well, that didn't hurt that much. It did it. Not stocks. Once it ended, we bounced right back. I want you to remember that because I'm got to going to tell you there going to be more of them.
Of course, there's a ton of controversial stuff happening in Washington any given moment. But at the end of the day, it's just not that relevant to the market. Maybe you think the Trump administration is pushing the boundaries of executive power. Look, but I I guarantee you that Wall Street doesn't care either way.
Fourth, the last big macro question we asked was whether corporate earnings would keep growing like we expected in the end about end of 2024. As a reminder, at the beginning of the year when I first posed these questions, the consensus expectation was that we'd see about 12% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, followed by another 12% of earnings growth in 2026.
Those expectations were at the heart of the bull thesis for this market coming into the new year. So, uh, how does does that look? Well, um to start the final tally for S&P 500's 2024 earnings ended up slightly like it will come in slightly lower than anticipated more like 10% instead of 12%. But not for bad reason.
In fact, the S&P 500 earnings projections for 2025 slightly higher than it was the beginning of the year on absolute basis. Earnings expectations for both 2025 and 2026 came down after the president's tariff rollouts, but bottomed in May and June. Then we had strong second and third earning seasons.
So the estimates have gradually climbed back to levels that are now above what we were looking for at the beginning of the year. The other big thing to note here is the fact that the earnings expectations for next year are higher. Rather than the 12% earnings growth that Wall Street was projecting for 2026, now we're looking for nearly 14% earnings growth next year.
That's going to be very high benchmark. Of course, those are just estimates, not something you can take for granted. For the market to keep rolling in 2026, we're going to need to hit that 14% collective earnings growth forecast. But looking at these numbers, you can see why the markets had another strong year of gains.
At the end of the day, earnings growth is the single most important determinant of your stocks. the direction and the fact of the matter is that earnings growth outlook has gradually gotten better over the past 12 months. So, the bottom line, there you go. Those are your answers for my four big macro questions that I asked at the beginning of the year.
But we're far from done. Stick around because after the break, we'll revisit our sector specific questions and see how those have worked out in 2025. Noney's back after the break. Coming up, Kramer's answering more of our 25 questions for 2025 as he's taking you sector by sector and seeing how they each fared this year. .
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