저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
영상의 주 출연자 Tom Lee는 Fed 회의를 시장 친화적(비둘기파적)으로 평가하며, 올해 후반 약세장 성격의 급격한 시장 여건 변화 가능성을 언급했다. 근거로 SpaceX IPO 이후 유동 물량 해제, OpenAI·Anthropic IPO, 호르무즈 해협 공급망 차질, 투기 자금 소진 가능성을 들었다. 다만 현 시점은 시기상조라는 입장이다. 진행자는 Tom Lee의 장기 투자 적중률은 높지만 단기 예측은 약 50/50 수준이라고 평가하고, 영상 대부분은 자사 트레이딩 서비스 홍보와 비트코인 관련 종목 언급에 할애했다.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee's saying a crash is coming and I think this is good. I think this is good for Bitmain because he's talking about the Fed. He's talking about OpenAI and he's talking about one third thing. All about this and what they did last week with the purchases of Ethereum. All about this here in this video.
Welcome to the have no idea who I am, I'm the guy who's on a holiday right now. Yes, that's why my frequency of videos doesn't come every single day. I try to be here in the south of France. You know, be there for my training group and you know, also make sure that I watch the market every single day.
But I do a little bit less of videos. Just like a answer to my last video. Maybe you have seen, we talked about my hater that actually said after my video that he apologized. And I think this is the most positive way you should be around. You know, understand the other you know, side of bearishness or disappointment in Bitmain.
But on the other side, you also have to understand the bulls that are doing this for years and professional investors like myself, right? If you don't know me, then that's a pity because since 2018, I'm on YouTube. I was early in Tesla for example. I bought it at 23. It crashed to 11. I was the bull man for half a year, one year or even longer until then it went to 500 and .
And beside my YouTube channel where I have like free long-term content on long-term investing, I also talk about my own product which is xtend-day-trading.com. And we are killing it this week. We started off with a SMCI trade off of great news, great catalyst. We did a 30% trade. We closed the day and because our team and our systems saw that maybe the market will not do so well today, right?
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Now, let's talk about first what happened with the current update, right? Because every Monday we see like a huge update on you know, what Bitmain did, and I haven't checked it. I was today in the beach club, guys, okay? So, uh let me just save this tweet here. You should follow me also on X, by the way.
Um so, let's go to Bitmain on X, and they usually have the update there there. Yeah, 36 minutes ago. So, you know, I was on the way from the beach club to home, and now the World Cup is starting. Guys, I enjoy you know, one of the most beautiful things being a professional investor is just to having like all the time in the world, right?
You can be at the beach club, you can trade a little bit, you can watch the market, you can make great investments. As you might know, my GTA investment uh to take is taking off as well. As you know, I think this is just the beginning. So, you should be subscribed to all of my channels because you might miss that, okay?
And I still it's I think it's still early, okay? So, anyway, so uh Bitmain provided its latest holding update. They have about like 600 million in cash. It means that they raised more money while buying a little bit more Ethereum. They meet eligibility criteria to be added to the Russell 1000 and on the 18th of June.
Today is the 22nd. So, why they are talking about uh the past, actually? Okay, so maybe they are essentially already added and will be added on the 26th. Maybe one of us, you you know, have researched it. Make it sound in the comments. But obviously, I think it's not hard to get into this index and that's why, you know, Bitmain and Riot did quite well today, actually, until the market sold over over obviously.
Um you know, we bought 52,000, guys, which is great. I think these levels are always a little bit should be a little bit higher. So, we raised money, we bought more Ethereum. That's why Bitmain uh quite a whole crypto market is quite interesting right now. I saw a couple of updates on upgrades on MSTR and the other stocks.
So, um that's about the update. But let's dive into Tom Lee because Tom Lee is warning about a crash in 2026. So, let's have a look. joins us now. It's good to have you on our program today. Tell our producers investors overreacted to the Fed meeting. It seems to be the consensus, the growing consensus that that was what happened yesterday.
Why do you think that? Um hi, Scott. Um Kevin Warsh has a very different communication style and he he plans to kind of modernize how the Fed monitors data. So, I think the markets took the removal of that forward guidance, and even looking at those dot plots as a hawkish pivot, but I think instead, I think it's a Kevin Warsh that's saying, "Listen, I'm going to be using modern data, real-time alternative data to understand what's going on with inflation, and at this moment we have no conviction." So, to me, I think it's actually a very market-friendly view.
Um I think the the homework now is for investors to understand that if data changes, those dots are going to move pretty quickly. So, I I think overall, it's actually quite a dovish meeting. So, 7,500 is where we sit right now on the S&P. Been looking for a few different scenarios to play out in the market between now and the remainder of the year.
If you think that yesterday was dovish, and a lot of other people thought it was hawkish, and you came into yesterday thinking that we're going to have some moment where the market was going to have a correction of some magnitude, have you changed that view? Um Scott, we still believe uh later this year, there is going to be an abrupt change of market conditions, one that feels very much like a bear market.
Um but we don't want to stand and uh call a top. I think conditions are still favorable for stocks. You know, the SpaceX IPO was very successful, and as you know, there's been a cadence of pretty good news coming out of that company, and it is a very small float company with only 90 billion of flow.
Um and I think Kevin Warsh uh his view, this was actually kind of a a market reaction to his first press conference, but I think that the the real challenge is going to come later this year. So, I I think yes, very much there is going to be a change in market tone, but I think it's too early for people to expect that to happen now.
But when you say there's going to be a quote abrupt change of market conditions, I mean, you can't make a statement like that without telling me why you you think that. What what's going to happen? Uh well, I think that there are Sorry, let's say I we can see with pretty good visibility three things happening.
You know, one is that we know markets eventually test, especially if a Fed that's redoing the five, you know, framework with five task forces. I think that's in 2026. The second is that the IPO of SpaceX, today there's very little flow, but that's going to unlock later this year in phases along with the IPO of Anthropic and OpenAI.
And the third is that because of just the the disruptions we experienced so far in the Straits of Hormuz, there is in the supply chain coming shortages. That Those are actually the preconditions. I think the fourth catalyst is that speculative firepower runs out. Um that will happen when some things like margin debt, you know, experience levels that are associated with short-term corrections.
Or it could be that you could see a lot of cash move off the sidelines. But I don't have any sense that investors are that bullish yet. So to me, I don't think that fourth piece is in place yet. All right, good stuff, Tom. Talk to you soon. Thank you. Fun strats, Tom Lee. So as you can see, first of all, I believe in the following, okay?
And think about with me. I think that Tom Lee has like a tremendous track record of great long-term trading ideas, okay? Or or investment ideas, right? Bitcoin at 3,000, Ethereum at, you know, 500, S&P 500 at 7,000. All of these great, great, great picks, okay? So I would say like he's like a, you know, 80% of his long-term trade [snorts] ideas or investment ideas work out, right?
What he's not so good, and which is the hardest thing in the world, is to give short-term predictions, okay? Sometimes he says that Ethereum will be maybe, you know, 10,000 by the end of the year. Like we all thought it will be because we all believe in him and so on. But it's very hard to predict these kind of things, right?
And that's why I believe that he is like maybe 50/50 or even 40/60% winning rate on those short-term predictions. So, if he says we might crash, maybe we saw the crash already in the whole package of Iran consolidation, crashing, selling, because like the AI is just so strong. AI will not go away, right?
So, and it brings the market higher and higher, specifically companies like MU, Micron, right? Nvidia is good. You know, we saw this Iron or other stocks that, by the way, my colleague here on YouTube, Michele, he has three channels. He talks about SoFi, Hims, and Iron now, our first AI stock that we cover with our team.
So, make sure to be subscribed to him as well. And you can see here, Tom Lee says about three things. Number one, the market might be a little bit draining capital with the AI super IPOs, right? Like Open AI. Then the market will test the Fed as well, right? So, I think that this are the main two points.
The other one is not so interesting. So, I want to talk about the Fed more. I think that the Fed is always being tested, okay? It's like you can go on statistic and the Fed is being always tested, right? So, I believe that we might have seen this testing as well, right? Because we have seen like, you know, there was a lot of considerations, will the Fed raise or reduce the rates, and so on.
So, I think that we might have seen that as well. So, in overall, maybe he's wrong about that the market go lower. Maybe we have seen that. It was like pulled forward, okay? That the market actually had its crash because think about it, how many times now the market got like hit in the face, right? We had the Trump tariffs, we had the Iran war, we had the deep six saga.
We had like so many things that that the fears that the Fed will not cut in the in the next two three years. Like all of this fear is already baked in while we have the biggest AI revolution brewing under the hood of the market while we don't see even close to the valuations where everybody say, "Oh, it's a bubble." But it's it will be A, much bigger.
B, it will be also obviously, you know, also totally crazy in maybe 5 years or 10 years while we have much more AI products in our daily lives and it gets absolutely crazy when the, you know, AI will, you know, find a way where we can live forever or create the super AGI where, you know, everything will be just like that invented.
Like they will be some chat GPT moment for chat GPT and the whole AI industry where we say like, "Oh my god, we have to turn the whole planet into a data center." And you know, and and put like, you know, double that amount into space. And essentially that will be then our Dyson sphere. I know if you know what a Dyson sphere is.
A Dyson sphere is actually how you say it? Like a civilization that, you know, uses the whole power and harvest the whole power, you know, around their star, so our sun. But actually, you know, we would be like full of AI and data centers that we, you know, see also some headlines recently that Anthropic, you know, shuts down Mythus because it's too dangerous.
Like crazy stories like from a sci-fi movie and like Elon Musk say, "Maybe we're all in the in a simulation that are just like galactic Netflix that just entertains some aliens because some crazy things are happening around the world every single day. So, uh but I know what is not crazy and this is xandeytrading.com.
If you If it's crazy when you not check it out and schedule a call before we raising our joining fee for the months of July. We never come again. We never have discounts. We never have specials. It always goes up. Our performance gets always better and you know, we are using also AI, but we have like a real five-head trader team that is all professional.
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I don't know when I will have some time between sun, beach, and the beautiful Côte d'Azur here in South of France and some World Cup games. I will be for sure letting you know what I think about the current news about Bitmain and other stocks. So, make sure to stay tuned. I see you next couple of days and don't forget, the grass is greener always on the other side.
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