저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라 단기 마진 악화는 큰 문제가 아니며 장기적으로 자율주행과 로보택시가 현실화되면 테슬라 주가에 큰 상승 여력이 있다는 낙관론. 실적: 최근 분기 매출 약 250억 달러, 희석 주당순이익 0.78달러로 월가 예상을 상회. 인도량은 약 48,000대로 전년 대비 86% 증가. 마진: 매출총이익률이 2022년 2분기 25%에서 최근 18%로 하락. 원인은 고금리·인플레이션 속 수요 진작을 위한 여러 차례의 가격 인하. 연구개발비: 분기 약 9억4,300만 달러로 전년 대비 41% 증가해 수익성을 압박. 다만 장기적으로는 기술 선도 유지에 필수적이며 결국 수익으로 돌아온다고 주장. 경쟁력: 테슬라는 제조 역량 투자로 원가 우위를 확보했고 포드·GM은 전기차 부문에서 손실을 감수해야 해 경쟁이 어렵다고 평가. 자율주행: 현재 FSD는 완전 자율주행이 아니어서 운전자 주의가 필요함. 일론 머스크는 올해 안에 완전 자율주행이 가능하다고 주장하나 과거 일정은 자주 지연됨. 완전 자율주행이 실현되면 로보택시로 막대한 매출·이익 성장이 가능하다고 봄. 리스크: 머스크의 일정 지연 경력, 단기 마진 하락, 높은 R&D 지출이 불확실성 요인으로 언급됨. 전망: 단기 마진 압박은 작은 문제이며 장기 그림이 중요하다는 입장. 머스크에 맞서 베팅하기 어렵다는 낙관적 태도.
다듬은 글
now if you look at the recent Trends Tesla did beat Wall Street estimates with its latest Financial update generating a revenue of $25 billion and diluted earnings per share of 78 cents the business also produced $48,000 Vehicles During the period which is up 86% year-over-year and however shareholders were not happy to see that Tesla's gross margin has gone down from 25% in the second quarter of 2022 to8 18% in the most recent quarter so that is down from where it was last year Tesla's gross margin in the previous year was 25% and now it is 18% so now this is a cause for concern for the investors and the management was forced to cut the prices of cars multiple times this year and that is the reason why you don't have a lot of gross profit margin and I think you should understand why they had to do that they had to do that in an effort to boost the demand at a time when consumers have been dealing with High interest rates and inflationary pressures and Warren Buffett always said that now when you look at the company when you're analyzing a company what you should also look at is the economic situations now with higher interest rates and inflationary pressures where prices of Commodities are going up very frequently how many people would go out ahead to buy a Tesla so even the people who would normally want to buy a Tesla with this High interest rates and inflation people are likely to postpone their plan of buying a car and at in that time if you offer your car at a discount sound then a little bit more percentage of people are likely to buy but when you do that sure the sales are up but the gross margin also takes ahead but I don't think Tesla did anything wrong here Warren Buffett always said that you should always operate in regards to the economic situations of the country and so the pricing Cuts certainly deserve a lot of the blame for the shrinking operating margin too and however Tesla's research in development expenses of 943 million during the quarter which were up 41% year-over-year hurt the profitability as well Tesla wants to grow rapidly and Tesla wants to be ahead of the EV race which means spending a lot of money in research and development and those expenses were at a tune of 940 million almost a billion Tesla spent almost a billion dollars on research and development in one single quarter which was up 41% as well now even the margin is high anyone just imagine spending a billion dollars a quarter on Research Now that takes a lot of toll in the profit ility as well but in the long run this the billion dollar spent in the research and development would be very much profitable and though people can't see today this will this the billion dollars spent today on research and development in the quarter won't go to waste for sure and the benefit of continuously spending heavy money on research and development is that it can maintain Tesla's lead as a Trailblazer in the industries which Tesla needs to do so that its market cap does not go down to its competitors so this is very crucial for for Tesla which means it is crucial for all of the investors like us as well now looking at the bigger picture Tesla has quickly become a powerful brand in the technology and the automotive sectors known for its massive Innovation disruption and Forward Thinking designs and additionally thanks to the company's brilliant investments in building up its manufacturing capacity it's starting to develop a cost Advantage when making automobiles the company is profitable while a legacy automaker like Ford constantly loses money in its eveve division now this is something that Kathy W mentioned a couple of years before that even for companies like Ford and GM to compete against Tesla they will have to operate at a margin of loss they'll be losing money while trying to compete with Tesla and that is why Ford and GM could never become a competitor to Tesla and having this competitive Advantage puts Tesla in a position to make progress towards Elon musk's long-term goal centered on autonomous self-driving and while Tesla does sell cars with its branded full self-driving FSD capabilities they're not fully autonomous at this point of time this means that right now a driver still must pay attention and be ready to intervene and take full control if necessary and a full autonomy is achieved something Elon Musk beliefs Could Happen later this year but even if it happens a few years from now it could be a huge financial Advantage for Tesla that's because this software coupled with Tesla's expanding manufacturing capabilities could really turn the company into a provider of Robo taxes which could experience unprecedented demand from consumers and drive outsized revenue and earnings growth over time and then the Tesla stock price will all make sense for everyone and now this might be a too far-fetched goal for Tesla but if it achieves that the amount of changes it could bring to this world and all so the revenue Tesla could be making would be enormous and the short-term vacancies in gross margin and profitability really are they pretty minor at this point relative to the long-term picture and in the Q2 earning call of this year Elon Musk said that autonomy will make all of these numbers look pretty silly he has been overly aggressive with his timing deadlines before so who knows when and if it will happen but when it does but it's also pretty hard to bet against Elon Musk at this point and thank you so much for watching I hope you all have a good day
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