저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 세계 경제는 공급 충격 중심의 구조적 체제 전환기에 들어섰으며, 스태그플레이션이 기본 시나리오다. 구조적 전환: 과잉 수요 시대에서 공급 부족 시대로 넘어갔고, 기후변화·이민·식량/에너지 불안 등 공급측 과제가 장기 전망의 핵심이다. 우크라이나 전쟁의 영향: 전쟁 이전부터 존재하던 요인을 증폭시켰고, 경제 결과 분포에서 좋은 시나리오(고성장·저인플레)가 거의 사라졌으며 침체 위험이 크게 높아졌다. 다만 기본 시나리오는 여전히 스태그플레이션이다. 정책 대응 실패: 중앙은행은 공급 충격이 왔는데도 여전히 유동성을 공급하는 등 수요 충분 세계의 전제에 머물러 뒤늦게 대응했다. 기업도 효율(저재고·적시생산)에서 회복탄력성 중시로 전환해야 하는 상황이다. 금융시장: 중앙은행 예측 가능한 유동성 공급에 익숙했던 시장이 왜곡됐고, 안전자산이 사라졌으며 자산 간 상관관계가 변하고 있다. 해법과 한계: 국내적으로는 인플레 기대 관리, 취약계층 대상 재정, 생산성 개혁, 비은행 금융 안정이 필요하다. 국제적으로는 협력이 필요하나 현재는 비협력적으로 대응 중이며 침체·불평등·글로벌 분열·시장 불안이 우려된다. 결론적 조언: 비정상적 불확실성 시대에는 회복탄력성(실수 후 복구), 옵셔널리티(다르게 생각하는 열린 사고), 민첩성(명확해지면 빠르게 움직이기) 세 가지가 필요하다.
다듬은 글
let me just say it's a great pleasure to be here and it's wonderful to catch up with friends and colleagues including two friends that i work with at the imf on the prior panel i say that because i'm going to pick up where they left and make six points about the operating environment that faces us all and what i'm going to do is wider widen the aperture of the analysis because if the aperture is narrowed on greece and to a certain extent on the eurozone i would sleep well but once you widen it and ask what operating global environment is facing us it makes for a less nice night of sleep it's the old thing you cannot be a good house in a bad neighborhood you have to care about the neighborhood and if you look at the neighborhood there's six things you need to take away number one we are in the midst of a fundamental secular regime change klaus wiglin spoke about higher interest rates we spoke about higher inflation food insecurity energy insecurity basically we have moved from a world where demand was insufficient to a world in which supply is insufficient and the main driver now of the secular outlook is the supply side and that comes on top of other secular challenges climate change migration you know the list the second point i would like to make is the drivers of this change were in place before the ukraine war we would be having a discussion on this even if this brutal war had not broken out but what the war has done is massively amplified the issues and it has changed the distribution of potential outcomes for the global economy so here's the distribution of potential outcome the most likely is stagflation a period of low growth and high inflation the right tail the good tail is that we go back to high growth and low inflation and the bad tail is a recession and what the war has done is it has virtually eliminated the right tail made it very thin it has significantly increased the risk of recession for the global economy it's not still the baseline it's a risk and it has maintained the stagflationary baseline the third issue is that this regime change has caught people by surprise policy makers were still operating in a world of sufficient aggregate demand when they were actually facing sufficient insufficient aggregate supply i'll give you a very simple example that i think captures all this the federal reserve in march of this year when the united states printed a seven percent inflation the federal reserve was still putting liquidity into the system it hadn't touched interest rates but it's still also still putting liquidity so so the policy makers and central banks in particular got caught offside companies got caught offside suddenly it's not enough to talk about efficiency you have to talk about resilience so when you have an operating model that is targeted as just in time you tend to forget that just in case and what we've seen is companies scrambling to respond to the supply side of shock and third financial markets frothy markets used to massive predictable injections from central banks totally distorted there is no safe asset anymore correlation is working down and somehow they have to respond which leads to the next issue is can you solve this in theory you can solve this you can solve this through the sort of domestic policies we heard about in the prior session central banks making sure inflationary expectations do not get out of control governments focusing their fiscal effort on the most vulnerable segments of the population much more pro-productivity for reforms measures and much greater emphasis on financial stability in the non-bank sector it's not the banking sector that's the problem and then there's an international element a lot of these issues are collective action problems if you if you like game theory this game has to be solved cooperatively are we there no we're not there on the domestic side and we are certainly not there on the global side on the global side we're trying to solve a cooperative game uncooperatively so what is the result recession concerns inequality concerns global fragmentation concerns and unsettling market instability and then my final point is what's next adapting a phrase that came from from the u.s central bank you need they said you need skill and you need luck i would add you need time skill and luck and the time element is important because we've already lost a lot of time for you for everybody is the reality that we are going to be operating in a world that's subject to many more outcomes this notion of unusual uncertainties not just uncertainty it's unusual uncertainty and if you want a basic question that you have to ask yourself is are you confident that you have the three attributes that you need in a world of unusual uncertainty that is resilience the ability to bounce back from a mistake you don't want to make a mistake but you're likely to make a mistake most mistakes are recoverable if you have resilience second optionality the mindset that is open enough to think differently and third agility the ability to move quickly when you have clarity without the resilience optionality and agility this may be a much more difficult operating environment than it should be thank you
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