저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 '경제 기계가 작동하는 법' 요약 영상으로, 특정 자산의 가격 전망이나 투자 조언은 없음. 경제는 모든 거래의 합이며, 소득은 생산성과 신용(차입)에서 나온다. 한 사람의 지출은 다른 사람의 소득이 된다. 단기 부채 사이클(5~8년)은 중앙은행의 금리 조절로 신용 확대와 수축이 반복되며, 인플레이션이 오르면 금리를 올려 차입을 줄이고 경기가 침체하면 금리를 낮춘다. 장기 부채 사이클은 단기 사이클이 반복될 때마다 부채가 소득보다 빠르게 늘어나 누적되는 구조다. 자산 버블이 형성되고 소득 증가가 부채 상환 부담을 따라가지 못하면 디레버리징(부채 축소)이 시작된다. 디레버리징의 네 가지 방법은 긴축(지출 축소), 부채 탕감·재조정, 부의 재분배(증세), 중앙은행의 화폐 발행이다. 화폐 발행은 인플레이션과 자산 가격 상승을 부르므로 네 방법을 적절히 배합해야 아름다운 디레버리징이 가능하다고 설명한다. 결론적으로 세 가지 원칙이 제시된다: 부채가 소득보다 빠르게 늘지 않게 할 것, 소득이 생산성보다 빠르게 늘지 않게 할 것, 장기적으로 생산성을 높일 것.
다듬은 글
bestbookbits.com brings you the summary of how the economic machine works by ray dalio how the economic machine works is a video made by ray dalio it explains how the economy works in a capitalist system i learned that the economy is governed by two cycles the long-term debt cycle and the short-term debt cycle these cycles depend on the amount of credit in the economy and the interest rates a little bit about ray dalio before we begin ray dalio is the founder and co-chairman of bridgewater associates which over the last 40 years has become the largest and best performing hedge fund in the world he's the author of the number one new york times bestseller and number one amazon business book of the year principles dalio has appeared on the time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as bloomberg markets list of the 50 most influential people he lives with his family in connecticut summary of how the economic machine works by ray dalio the economy is the sum of all transactions made a transaction is made when one provides a good or service against money transactions are made by different actors people businesses banks and the government people businesses banks and the government the government is the biggest spender it is composed of two parts number one the central bank which controls the amount of money in the economy and the interest rate of the debt number two the central government which collects taxes and spends them the government is made out of the central government and the central bank money can be obtained from two sources income which is salary and credit borrowing money you get money through a salary or by borrowing from the bank your income depends on your productivity the more productive you are the more money you will earn the more money you will be able to borrow because lenders lend money to those that can pay it back you can't borrow money without earning money the borrower must have an income that will let him repay or he must possess a collateral that will be sold to repay the debt in case he cannot if the collateral loses value or if the borrower's salary decreases the borrower becomes less credit worthy it's important to understand that the way the economy is structured is that one man's spending is another man's income one man's spending is another man's income when you spend to buy a beer you enable the bartender to make a living if you increase your productivity your salary will increase so you are more likely to spend more at the bar and the bartender will earn more money so he will spend more at the butchery and the butcher will earn more money etc the economy grows and produces more however it doesn't matter much in the short term because productivity stays mostly flat and doesn't really fluctuate understand people rarely increase their salary so it doesn't influence the economy much what influence is it though is credit the short term debt cycle credit allows borrowers to get money now and repay it later if you get money now you'll have more to spend when you spend more at the bar the bartender increases his salary etc credit enables the economy to grow good but we don't want too much of it when the money spent in the economy grows faster then the economy produces goods and services prices rise and when prices rise we call this inflation you're buying more beer than i can produce so it's now 10 more expensive eg if the butcher is selling 10 stakes and there are 11 buyers he will raise his prices the central bank does not like inflation so it will prevent people from borrowing to do so it increases interest rates since borrowing becomes more expensive people borrow less if they borrow less they spend less so the economy contracts a little but it's not all at some point debt has to be repaid to do so borrowers need to decrease the amount of money they spend no more drinks at the bar so the bartender will earn less money which will make the butcher earn less money etc the productivity of everyone decreases which drives the income down when people spend less everyone is earning less people buy less prices go down this is called deflation economic activity decreases and we have a recession if the recession becomes too severe understand people are not buying enough and inflation disappears the central bank will lower interest rates again to get people to borrow and consume again when interest rates decrease borrowers have to repay less debt spending increases and the economy expands again as you can see spending is constrained only by the capacity of lenders and borrowers to lend and borrow when credit is easily available the economy expands when credit isn't easily available the economy shrinks notice how this cycle is controlled primarily by the central bank this short-term debt cycle lasts five to eight years and happens over and over looking at the image you can see the central bank decreases interest rates people borrow and spend less the economy expands inflation rises the central bank increases rates people borrow less plus debt needs to be repaid the economy shrinks and then the central bank decreases interest rates and on and on it goes the short term debt cycle the level of debt as cycles go notice that at the end of each cycle we finish with more growth but also with more debt why because people love spending and many of them never repay they have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt it's human nature because of this over long periods of time debts rise faster than income creating the long-term debt cycle the long-term debt cycle despite people becoming more indebted lenders are always happy to extend credit why because people only take into account short-term data rising salaries and rising asset values homes help borrowers remain credit worthy everyone is buying stuff goods services assets with borrowed money when people do that prices reach heights they shouldn't we call it a bubble as long as salaries continue to rise debt can be repaid so asset value increases people borrow even bigger amounts of money to buy these assets as investments causing their prices to rise even higher but this obviously cannot continue forever and it doesn't at some point the need to repay debt grows faster than salaries forcing people to spend less since one man's spending is another man's income incomes decrease this makes people less credit worthy causing borrowing to go down debt repayments continue to rise which makes spending drop even further and the cycle reverses scrambling to repay debt borrowers must sell assets the rush to sell assets floods the market while at the same time spending falls the stock market collapses the real estate market tanks and banks get into trouble because they lent too much money as asset prices drop the value of the collateral borrowers can put up drops which makes borrowers even less credit worthy people feel poor credit rapidly disappears less spending equals less income less wealth less credit less borrowing and so on it's called deleveraging looking at the image you can see people consume even less which debt decreases people borrow and spend the economy expands inflation rises the central bank increases rates people borrow less plus debt needs to be repaid the economy shrinks the central bank cannot decrease interest rates more as debt level is too high borrowers sell assets to repay debt as the economy is down assets flood the market the bubble explodes the market crashes and again up the top people consume even less and on and on it goes in a deleveraging people cut spending incomes fall credit disappears asset prices drop banks get squeezed the stock market crashes social tensions rise and the whole thing starts to feed on itself the other way this appears similar to a recession but the difference here is that interest rates can't be lowered for two reasons first they are already low second borrowers don't want any more debt anyway because the debt burden is too big and they won't be able to repay the lenders realise they have to stop lending the economy has become not credit worthy so what do you do about a delivery gin you must decrease the debt burden and there are four ways to do that number one business and governments cut their spending this is called austerity while we might expect the debt burden to decrease the opposite happens since everyone stops spending everyone stops earning salaries fall faster than debt repayment which makes the debt income ratio worse when a borrower doesn't repay the bank people rush to the bank to withdraw money banks get squeezed and people and businesses and banks default on their debts this severe economic contraction is a depression and a big part of the depression is people discovering much of what they've thought was their wealth is not there anymore debt burden must therefore be lightened which leads to the second point number two debts are reduced through defaults and restructuring many lenders don't want their assets to disappear and agree to debt restructuring changing the terms of the debt eg paying less paying more slowly etc even though debt disappears debt restructuring causes income and asset values to disappear faster because people are refunding their debt slower so the debt burden continues to get worse all of this impacts the central government because lower incomes and less employment means the government collects fewer taxes but it also means it needs to increase spending to care for the unemployed to conduct daily business and to create a stimulus plan government's budget deficits explode they need to find money somewhere which leads to the third point number three wealth redistribution since governments need more money they increase taxes on the rich and redistribute the money to the less fortunate they resent the rich for being rich while the rich resent the poor for not having to give them their money social disorder can break out tensions can arise in and between countries since most of what people thought was money was actually credit when credit disappears people don't have enough money and are desperate for it since the interest rate is already low and no one wants to borrow money we need to go to the last point number four the central bank prints new money unlike cut in spending debt reduction and wealth redistribution printing money is inflationary and stimulative inevitably the central bank prints new money out of thin air and uses it to buy financial assets and government bonds which drives asset prices up and makes people that own assets more worthy of credit with that money governments can pay for social security and launch their stimulus plan while this increases people's incomes and lowers the economy's total debt burden it increases the country's debt this is very risky especially for countries that import a lot from abroad policymakers must balance the four ways that debt burdens come down the deflationary ways austerity need to balance with inflationary ways printing in order to maintain stability if balanced correctly there can be a beautiful deleveraging where debts decline relative to income real economic growth is positive and inflation isn't a problem it is achieved by having the right balance which requires a certain mix of cuts of these four methods but will printing money not trigger inflation it won't if it offsets falling credits understand as long as you don't print more than the level of debt remember spending is what matters a dollar of spending from a salary is the same as a dollar of spending from a credit card by printing money the central bank can make up for the disappearance of credit with an increase in the amount of money in order to turn things around the central bank needs to not only pump up income growth but get the rate of income growth higher than the rate of interest on the accumulated debt income needs to grow faster than debt grows you need to print enough money to get the rate of income growth above the rate of interest however printed money could easily be abused because it's so easy to do and people prefer to do it to the alternatives the key is to avoid printing too much money and causing unacceptably high inflation if policymakers achieve the right balance a deleveraging isn't so dramatic growth is slow but debt burdens go down that's a beautiful delivery gin when incomes begin to rise borrowers begin to appear more creditworthy and when borrowers appear more creditworthy lenders begin to end money again debt burdens finally begin to fall people can spend more and the economy begins to grow again leading to the reflation phase of the long-term debt cycle the leveraging takes roughly a decade or more for debt burdens to fall and the economic activity to get back to normal hence the term lost decade conclusion so in summary there are three rules of thumb first don't have debt rise faster than income because your debt burdens will eventually crush you second don't have income rise faster than the productivity because you'll eventually become uncompetitive don't pay people higher than the value they produce and third do all that you can to raise your productivity because in the long run that's what matters most and that's wrap on this book summary how the economic machine works by ray dalio if you're interested to check out his books principle and check out the long version of this video on his youtube channel how the economic machine works we at best bookbits have done over 1000 book summaries in video written in audio format so subscribe to our youtube channel check us out on spotify google podcast apple podcast and our website bestbookbits.com if there's a summary you want me to do please comment below thanks for watching listen have yourself an amazing day take care bye bye now
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