저자: MichelleMarki · 외국인
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결론: 제이미 다이먼 발언 요지는 경기침체 가능성과 금융 변동성 확대를 경계하라는 것이며, 영상 자체는 명시적 종목 매매 추천이 거의 없다. 출처 및 배경: 2022년 6월 1일 Sanford Bernstein 전략 콘퍼런스에서 다이먼이 발언한 내용을 유튜버가 요약·해설한 영상이다. 자막은 자동인식이며 발언 해석은 유튜버 개인 의견이 섞여 있다. 소비와 경기침체 시점: 다이먼은 소비자가 약 6~9개월 치 추가 지출 여력(코로나 재정지원 저축)을 갖고 있어 경기침체가 2023년 3월께 올 수 있다고 언급했다. 영상은 이를 2023년 3월 침체 가능성으로 전달한다. 재무 건전성: 다이먼은 JP모건이 '요새형 대차대조표(fortress balance sheet)'와 보수적 회계로 침체에 대비한다고 강조했다. 신용손실충당금(Cecil) 등 약 30억 달러 수준의 추가 비용 가능성도 언급했다. 거시 3대 변수: (1) 재정·통화 부양에 따른 비정상적 성장, (2) 연준의 금리 인상과 양적긴축(QT), 과거 없던 규모의 유동성 회수, (3) 우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 원자재(밀·석유·가스) 가격 충격. 금리·유동성 리스크: 과거 QE의 주요 매수자였던 중앙은행·외환당국·은행이 QT 국면에서 국채 매수 주체가 되지 못해 국채 수급과 변동성이 커질 수 있다고 봤다. 마이너스 금리는 실수였다고 평가했다. 신용 사이클: 신용 사이클은 정상적 궤도를 따를 것이며 신용카드 연체율은 현재 역대 저점 수준이다. 다만 사모신용 등 특정 영역에서 부실이 나올 수 있고, 그림자금융(repo·MMF·CP 등) 위험이 커질 수 있다고 봤다. 장기 수익성: 다이먼은 JP모건의 목표 자기자본이익률을 17%로 제시했다. 침체 시 이보다 낮아질 수 있다고 언급했다. 종목·자산 언급: 대상 자산 목록 중 직접적인 가격 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않았다. 원자재(석유·밀·가스) 가격 상승 우려와 석유 가격 장기 상승 가능성(175달러·150달러 언급) 정도가 언급되었다. 출연자 전망 요약: 다이먼은 단기 낙관과 장기 경계를 함께 내비쳤다. 영상 진행자는 '폭풍 전 고요'로 해석하며 대비를 권했다. 주의: 해당 발언은 2022년 6월 기준이며, 이후 실제 경기와 시장 흐름과 비교해 평가해야 한다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and welcome back to my channel if you haven't already you would mean a lot to me in the youtube algorithm if you could please like and subscribe to my video and youtube channel because today i'm going to be sharing the insights and wisdom from jamie dimon the ceo of jpmorgan chase where at the sanford bernstein 30th annual strategic decisions conference on june 1st 2022 jamie dropped the mic on delivering this master class about banking and also a warning about bracing yourself for the impending economic hurricane coming and also serving up some soup du jour of banking acronyms and also if you live on the east coast like i do hurricanes can either be no big deal or they can be a really big deal like super storm sandy was and you're lucky if you can escape from the destruction so imagine what an economic hurricane is like and it's probably all the bad things you can imagine where he said that consumers have about six to nine months worth of spending which would put a recession right around march 2023 so brace yourselves for sure and i'm probably biased but i think that chase has got a pretty decent slate of consumer products when jamie said we already have a huge share of gen z millennials and you know they like our products like our servers they like our sapphire card and also jamie dimon said that a company can be protected from a downturn by having a fortress balance sheet and also protecting customers so i appreciate jamie diamond's candor and the following of what i'm going to share of what he said and i haven't done this before but i'm going to match jamie's audio with the transcript of what he said so it can really sink in the economic lessons we can take away from jamie and also prepare ourselves for what could be coming and not that it's a big deal but i briefly hung out with jamie dimon at the berkshire hathaway omaha annual meeting so i think that was pretty fun and not that i really know jamie but let's listen to what he said i mean you know what protects a company in a downturn is first of all you're prepared that you know we always talk about through the cycle so we acknowledge when we're over earning on credit and that that's going to normalize we're quite clear about that and that might be three billion dollars of charges more a year and we have to prepare for things like cecil and aoci and downturns and all that but your bet your best preparation is that fortress balance sheet it's conservative accounting we don't have a lot of not a lot we have almost no one-time gains or losses or msr even when you look at msr that's conservative too because there's very little fha service in there when things go bad fha servicing is very expensive when the delinquencies hit five or ten percent which is guaranteed to happen in the downturn and the same with you know look at our real estate portfolios they're mostly the ones you worry about mostly class a fully leased up no spec you know all these various things which is hard to look at but that protects you in those margins when when things get bad we'll still have margins but still be making money and the reason we want to do that so we can serve clients in the toughest of times and uh and we have plenty of capital plenty of balance sheet there's a lot of capital uncertainty because we still don't know scb we don't know if there'd be any adjustments of g siffy which we're not counting on we did some acquisitions which took away from some buy-back capability though you know i much prefer to do really smart acquisitions of stock buyback you may not like that so much sometimes because you want our consistency and all that but uh so yeah we'll we'll be a fortress balance sheet and next go around too and we're you know we're quite concerned about the environment so you know i try to separate for the hours committee what right now if you have a benign environment like you all have forecasts which in your forecast that's your forecast it's a benign environment i don't know what it's going to be like by the end of the year you know i'm prepared for a non-benign environment by the end of the year so you know to me it's we try to explain all that as best we can and i think it's important we do that but we will be prepared for bad outcomes i'm going to change the storm clouds i said i said there are three things that we're going through which are i hate the word unprecedented which are kind of unprecedented and you got to put this in back your mind when you haven't when you've seen things that have never happened before then you have to question your ability to predict okay one is huge growth in this country driven by fiscal and monetary stimulation that isn't a normal recovery okay and that that fiscal stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers they're spending it they're spending at very strong levels for and the data is completely distorted it's stored by inflation it's stored by they went from goods back to services it's destroyed by all these things but jobs are plentiful wages are going up consumers are spending the lower income folks not quite as much as before but everybody else it looks like they have two trillion dollars more savings rate drop i don't think there's going to stop the spending the six or nine months and and so it is so that to me is the bright clouds out there uh but it's different the fed has to meet this now with raising rates and qt and the new part of this isn't the raising rates it's the qt the qt has we've never had qe before like this therefore we've never had qt like this so you're looking at something you're gonna be writing history books on for 50 years what was qe what worked what didn't work i think a lot of parts of qe backfired i think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of different reasons i'm bored with now uh but they've got the raised rates and they might be they have to do qt they do not have a choice because there's so much liquidity in the system they have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation to reduce home prices stuff like that and you've never been through qt so all the major buy if you look if you go back to 2010 and say who are all the major buyers of treasuries all that time it was central banks foreign exchange managers banks who were topping up the liquidity profiles because we had to for regulations all three it just won't happen the go round banks are topped up foreign exchange matters are topped up the central bank would be selling not buying and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance that's a huge change in the flow of funds around the world i don't know what the effect of that is i'm prepared for i tell people minimum huge volatility and the third thing is ukraine that you've not had a european land war since 1945 okay and you could and the and the complexity of ukraine is we don't know the outcome i always make a list you know if you predict the outcome well you couldn't predict the outcome of vietnam korea afghanistan iraq 10 other conflagrations all wrong wars go bad they go south they have unintended consequences and this happens to be whirling the commodity markets of the world wheat oil gas and stuff like that which in my view will continue we're not taking the proper actions to protect europe from what's going to happen in oil in the short run and we're not taking the proper actions to protect you all whereas capital oil in the next five years which means it almost has to go up the price we're not investing enough money you know uh to keep oil a number and for all those who love climate change if oil prices go to 175 or 150 which i i kind of think is in the cars to tell the truth you know not in the immediate run but down the road then co2 won't go up down which is everyone predicts because people buy less oil and gas it's going to go up because all those other countries out there the poor countries who need oil and gas to feed and heat their their citizens will turn off will not buy oil and gas they'll buy coal that's what's going to happen co2 will go up it won't come down and we're not we're not dealing with these challenges so those three things fiscally induced growth qt ukraine war so i'm going to change the storm clouds out there because i look i'm an optimist you know i i said they're storm clouds they're big storm clouds they're it's a hurricane it's we right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you better brace yourself so jp moore is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very conserving our balance sheet on with all this capital uncertainty we're going to have to take actions and you know i kind of want to shed non non-operating deposits again which we can do in size you know to protect ourselves so we could serve clients in bad times and so that that's the environment we're dealing with and you know i i'm i think it's okay to hope that'll end up okay i hope it that's my goldilocks i hope the hell knows the banking industry is in great shape and credit cycles follow a norm okay and even in the great financial recession it followed a norm with a couple of little exceptions mortgages there's a trillion dollars actually to be lost you we all woke up sometime in 08 or 09 and said my god it's a trillion dollars and it was everywhere it wasn't derivatives no it was in cos it was in banks it was an insurance companies it was but that caused panic because people woke up investors and they said my god it's everywhere what do you do you sell you know so is panic selling and stuff like that and i think you may see that again by the way too because i i don't think that banks could intermediate in the markets that we're used to so when when all this liquidity gets run down we're going to hit a wall and then when that wall gets hit in terms of intermediation you're going to see very volatile markets again and no one's going to be able to step in other than the fed which maybe they can't do this time so um but the credit cycle follows a norm normally and you know and that's the minimum you should expect and we've shown people you know credit card i mean it's all-time lows today but you know in the great recession it hit peaked at 10 we would have told you before that eight percent you know often not that much what surprises people is it won't be mortgage this time it won't be we don't see it there might be something in the private credit markets you're at okay ghosts i mean when things happen it will someone will get hurt uh somewhere uh and sometimes it's industries you just least expect and so you have to be very careful on that like in oh in the zero zeros it was telecom and utilities the ones that were the most stable you know 0708 it was warren buffett newspapers i mean so you know there's underlying changes in credit you have to be very careful about very hard to spot and therefore the discipline is you never put all your eggs in one basket you're very careful no matter how people people think real estate or something like that and so anyway you will have a normal credit cycle uh charge also go up will will still be earning money cecil makes it very volatile you know like i i think i point that investor today we put up in two quarters so the first quarter of 2020 in the second quarter 15 billion dollars of cecil and then the next four quarters we took it down i mean i know what kind of accounting that is i think it's crazy i don't know who invents this but uh but we have to deal with it regardless and in 2023 remember if you have a if a severe recession starts you know sometime in 2023 inflation you know wage inflation can go to zero like literally overnight so we said 17 is what we expect to earn through the cycle and we have you know when if you have a recession well it won't be 17.
it'll be something lower like that's life do the calculation that jp morgan earns 17 percent on capital and grows at 7 a year for how many years does it take before 50 of the gdp of the united states of america i mean i would take 17 all day long okay that's pretty good now you all don't earn 17 of your capital i mean the worst thing a ceo can do a company is is have this abc arrogance bureaucracy or complacency if you put your head in the sand you die i i think that i'm just trying to note that i think jp morgan's in pretty good shape i think your competition is going to be brutal and fun to watch and i think there'll be a lot of losers in it too by the way so is that systemic i don't know there's a lot of leverage lending out there will someone get hurt probably will that credit dry up in that segment the market probably uh are there other things we see out there that are particularly bad no but we have this little report we have called shadow banking and you put it all together you know middle you know from repo to money market funds to commercial paper to close to you know mortgage banking the mortgage businesses have moved away from banks for good reason and so you're going to see this stuff is going to get worse if the markets get tighter and you know liquidity dries up a little bit we will be prepared for it and uh so should you if you were smart and so my key takeaways from jamie are that even though it looks sunny outside it's probably the calm before the storm because he thinks that a lot of quantitative easing or money printing has backfired on the american economy because he believes that the federal reserve doesn't have much of a choice but to raise interest rates as part of quantitative tightening to fight high inflation and also even though he didn't elaborate on why he thinks negative interest rates were such a huge mistake i think that it's part of because there's been a lot of cheap money that fueled corporate debt and leveraged lending which led to unsustainable growth initiatives across all asset types and there will probably be a reckoning and a reversion to the mean at some point so as a bank captain of the jp morgan chase ship jamie dimon is battening down the hatches and trying to prepare the ship for an economic super storm and also minimum to huge volatility in the markets and so if you take away nothing else the three main things that he said we're going through which are unprecedented include how we've had pretty much non-stop quantitative easing since the great recession of 2008 and 2009 and also the pandemic recession and now the ukraine war and also quantitative tightening now and i like jamie dimon because he's not only buddies with warren buffett but he also tells it like it is so i'm trying to get prepared and i hope you are too and go listen to jamie diamond talk about this some more on the jpmorgan chase investor relations page and also you can probably listen to this on some youtube videos so definitely give jamie diamond a listen some more and his full talk that was about an hour long and i hope that will help you too and if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe and i wish you well on getting through this economic hurricane and making it out on the other side with your wealth not only intact but also in a position to grow your wealth till next time you
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