Ray Dalio & Jeremy Grantham's Investing Advice To Grow Wealth With Stocks Crashing

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2022년 6월 영상의 결론: 주식시장 하락과 고인플레이션 국면에서 자산을 지키고 키우려면 인플레이션 노출 자산을 늘리고 현금·채권·부채성 금융자산 비중을 줄이는 쪽이 낫다는 주장. Jeremy Grantham은 현재를 미국 증시의 세 번째 대형 버블로 보고, 2000년 닷컴 버블과 유사한 신호(고평가 성장주 급락과 우량주 상대 강세 같은 괴리)가 나타났다고 평가함. Grantham은 인플레이션·실질성장 4사분면 중 상단 우측(인플레 상승) 노출을 줄이면 위험은 낮추고 수익은 높일 수 있다고 주장함. 기관 포트폴리오가 이 구간에 취약하다고 봄. Ray Dalio는 현금이 쓰레기(cash is trash)이며 채권과 부채성 금융자산은 실질 마이너스 수익이 불가피하다고 봄. 인플레이션 연계 채권, 원자재(금·은), 신흥국 신용 등을 언급함. Dalio는 중국과 인도에 장기적으로 강세 견해를 보임. 정치 리스크, 기후변화에 따른 인구·자원 감소, 고부채 리스크도 함께 제시됨. 진행자는 Dalio 스타일의 올웨더 포트폴리오 배분(금·원자재 15% 등)을 예시로 소개하며 본인은 전부 동의하지 않는다고 밝힘. 현금 일부 보유를 선호하고, 주가 추가 하락 시 우량 기업을 저가에 매수할 계획이라고 말함. 전체적으로 2022년 6월 시점의 하락 경계와 인플레이션 방어 관점이 중심이며, 개별 종목에 대한 명시적 가격 전망은 없음.

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01. 'm going to share advice on how to not only preserve your wealth but also to grow your wealth during stock market declines that are similar to what we saw in the 2000s after the dot-com bubble burst and also with rising inflation similar to what we saw in the 1970s from renowned investors ray dalio of bridgewater associates and also jeremy grantham of gmo in a conversation that they had on may 9 2022 and from them we'll learn what they suggest we do and you can decide if it makes sense for your personal portfolio or not and if you enjoy content like this i hope you'll consider liking and subscribing to my video and youtube channel and let's listen to them we live in an age where some much more important issues are playing out and i know ray shares that view to some considerable degree but i i view the stock market now really as a hobby and the one thing that i have kept going is resources and climate change related investing and also for old times sake investment bubbles since i've been doing that for 40 or 50 years and um and since i find myself unexpectedly in in the third great investment bubble of my career in basically in the us so i can't avoid it and this is a wonderful day to be having this discussion it's not only victory over hitler in russia day but it's it's also a day where the market is showing signs of breaking down and the other meme stops are in ragged disarray so this is the real mccoy seems to be playing out pretty close to 2000 always considered myself a fairly serious amateur historian what i've done in bubble territory is i i don't try and build models to explain every day as you guys do i i focus on the four great bubbles which are characterized by nearly hysterical behavior really seriously weird over optimism which is very rare and which are characterized by accelerated price moves on the upside and by a weird uh deviation on the upside between the blue chips going up and the risky stocks going down and that that is rare as hen's teeth it happened brilliantly in 29 it happened during the year 2000 again in spades with the s p x growth continuing to go up through september of 2000 and the growth starts basically going down 50 and the internet starts dropping maybe 60 70 percent by that so that was spectacular and we saw a very handsome deviation between the s p rising last year and the russell 2 for example dropping quite handsomely so there was a 20 25 point spread on the upside and that for me is a pretty good indicator and i tell you what it describes it describes mr prince's i've got to keep dancing because the music's still playing and we understand that completely the enormous commercial imperative of the industry to play up to and over the edge but they're not complete idiots and so they say well i've got to keep dancing but i don't have to keep dancing with puma tech the most advanced stock in 99 i'm going to transfer to coca-cola and i'll keep dancing it off the edge but i'll go off with coca-cola and it works the coca-colas may be handsomely overpriced but in 1929 and 2000 2001 and so on they always go down a lot less as the bubble breaks and that's the phenomenon that causes this very rare indicator of impending doom which we saw last year and so by early this year it seemed clear to me that this was not only the real mccoy bubble which had been clear for a year or so in terms of pricing and enthusiasm but it had triggered this very rare indicator of impending doom in other words now and so uh our piece of a year and a bit ago was called waiting for the last dance and our equivalent follow-up this january was let the wild rumpus begin i.e we're in it dudes and i do believe we are and i i believe that the clients will be very substantial i think that uh looking at it year by year this is the third year of the expansion with a very aggressive monetary policy so we're in the part of the typical expansion where there's a lot of inflation pressures because it happened in a giant big way and we where everybody's long the world is at it's the end of a paradigm because everybody believes that they want everything to go up and of course that creates a dynamic where policy is long everything goes up and of course that happens by creating money and credit and which creates and that dynamic means that you must have uh decline in real wealth measured by that because that's the financial wealth has become enormous relative to the real wealth everybody who's holding bonds or assets that particularly the debt assets believes or financial assets in general which are just journal entries their their claims but they believe that they can take that buying power and sell it and buy goods and services and they can't and by its necessity there must be negative real returns negative returns relative to buying power so if we take it chronologically i think there's the short term cycle which is usually the business cycle takes you know seven years on average in the give or take depending on where you start the cycle you would take a few years i think we're moving along here quicker so we're now going to be in a very tight environment and that changes everything so when we look at the returns of equities and we look at the well-being of companies you see that the cost of interest relative to the expected returns of equities creates a squeeze on equities create changes the economics a lot of borrowing has been done at much lower interest rates and so on the return on equity for a company in the versus the return uh the cost of that of debt is changing and all of those things are are changing and like all bubbles or paradigm shifts the mentality that did exist we don't have to worry about inflation cash is a safe place and so on gets a shock there's a punch in the face there's been a 40-year bull market and there's a punch in the face to the all investors we're going through it as jeremy describes and when that happens things that were never supposed to happen because everybody believes in the tech companies and that which is the same as the nifty 50 or the the dot-com companies they get hammered right so like you say 75 percent decline in cathy woods funds and so so and so forth that causes the adaptation so we're in the beginning of that adaptation that is most similar i think to the 1970s period my main things are first cash is trash and that there's in bonds and debt it's it's not going to be good and the claims of financial assets so either avoid those or position yourselves so that when those things operate and and position yourself for inflation so there are investments lots of investments pertaining to inflation i agree with jeremy's comments about commodities how do you create a truly well-balanced core portfolio and we know that the typical well portfolio is not well balanced with its greatest vulnerability being in that upper right quadrant in our box which is the inflation box and we know that we're in that environment so from a starting point of view i would encourage all investors to look at that those four quadrant box that box that we have rising inflation falling inflation rising um real growth relative to discounted falling real growth relative to discounted and see what the biases are in those portfolios i believe that now you can simultaneously reduce risk and raise returns reduce risk of that portfolio by having more in that upper right quadrant rising inflation and you will reduce your risk because if you look at your portfolio typical investor's portfolio that is the environment that it is missing so you start with that how do you get more neutral how do you get back better balanced and you cover yourself from that exposure and then you make your tactical moves around it and the tactical moves again should not be in those debts it should be very well diversified and when ray dalio is suggesting to allocate a little bit more toward the upper right quadrant of rising inflation it looks like this matrix where some potential assets we might want to consider investing in include things like inflation-linked bonds so in an american example this would be something like the series i us savings bond where we can currently get an interest rate of 9.62 percent that will change after six months but that's the current going rate and then there's also things like commodities like gold or silver and then there's also emerging market credit which i don't even know how one can invest in emerging market credit but i'm sure there's some etf or index fund dedicated to something like that so definitely something to look into if you're interested in that but i know that ray dalio is super bullish on the future of china and india so if you can figure out a way to invest in those countries whether it's in bonds or stocks or other kinds of businesses then you might have something going for you there so those are some things to consider and also some of what ray dalio's all-weather or all seasons portfolio asset allocation looks like is indicated on tony robbins website where perhaps a potential way to allocate your wealth would be to put 15 split across gold and commodities but that's just one idea i don't necessarily agree with that but it's just one suggested idea of something you should consider and decide if it makes sense to you or not and so some of my key takeaways from these distinguished investors and students of history is that per ray dalio we could be seeing unpredictable political risk that will have huge economic and social ramifications as well as per jeremy grantham we're seeing declining populations and declining resource levels due to climate change and also high debt risk which along with the debt and equity bubbles that are popping we could see substantial declines as he said and so even though ray dalio says cash is trash i still like holding on to some cash per warren buffett and then when equities decline some more and when i think some wonderful companies are available at wonderful prices then i look forward to investing even more and hopefully they'll be able to recover someday as we go through some of the cycles that ray dalio has talked about where we're currently in rising inflation but eventually we'll see declining inflation or deflation and then we'll see low growth and then we'll be back to rising growth so i definitely have hope for the future and i hope you do too your journey to investing well during this period of high inflation and also stock market crashes so take care until next time