저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치는 개별 종목은 사업 내용을 알고 리서치해서 고르고, 시장 타이밍 예측은 무의미하며, 장기 투자가 유리하다고 주장한다. 투자 철학: '아는 것에 투자하라'는 말은 기업의 재무제표(부채·현금 등)를 직접 확인하는 리서치를 전제로 한다. 단순 '주식 투자=도박(시장 때려잇기)'은 위험하다고 경고한다. 지수 대비 초과수익: 지수를 이기려면 쇠퇴하는 기업(철강·석유·시어스·페니 등)을 피하고, S&P500 내에서 개선되는 기업이나 편입 전 성장 기업(카맥스 등 200배 상승 사례)을 찾아야 한다. 이익 실현 관련: 좋은 기업은 매도하지 말고 오래 보유해야 하며, 워런 버핏과의 일화(1989년 통화, 손실 종목에 추가 매수하는 것은 잡초에 물 주고 꽃을 자르는 것이라는 조언)를 인용했다. 시장 예측 무의미: 마젤란 운용 13년간 10% 이상 하락이 9번 있었으나 장기적으로는 상승이 하락보다 컸다. 단기 자금이 필요 없다면 꾸준히 투자하라고 강조했다. 산업 구조 변화: 섬유 산업처럼 업종이 나빠져도 바닥을 잡으면 사이클성 반등이 가능하다. 경기순환 턴어라운드는 2~3년 지속될 수 있다. 에너지 업종: 셰일 생산 감소로 현재 공급 과잉(글럿)이 해소되며 원유 수급이 타이트해질 것이라 봤다. 셰일 유정은 초기 생산량이 급감하는 특성이 있고, 현재 PE·IPO·채권시장 자금이 빠져 있어 셰일 생산이 둔화될 것으로 전망했다. 미국 생산이 1,250만 배럴까지 늘었지만 지속되지 않을 것이라 판단. 리스크: 산업 쇠퇴 장기화, 셰일 생산 재가속 시 에너지 반등 실패 가능성. 출연자 전망: 린치는 에너지 업종 회복을 긍정적으로 봤으나 구체적 가격·목표가·기간은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
so Peter you're investing philosophy is often summed up as by what you know and there's some truth to that and it's also often way oversimplified can you explain what you did mean by that and what you didn't mean well it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet if you if you could have had a get fairly close to 16 you can find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble should have known it so a little bit of research people carefully buy a refrigerator they can't really take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand awesome stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous So when you say buy what you know you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside Advantage by sticking to an industry he's familiar with or seeing something that she realizes is a great product imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you ever seen Gap when it was hot you ever seen lemon was hot we've seen it was not had you seen when they were starting people weren't excited about Gap anymore or then you do some research say well gee there's a lot of limited stores but we're only 20.
you know they can go to 400. so you you see a company I did really well Dunkin Donuts a local company I do well with Stop and Shop but people could see that this is really some people showing up or against the Sunglass Hut no one's there anymore so I mean that's research that's fundamentals so in with that you don't leave the mall though and by that day you have to do some more work that's the important Point yeah so today uh there's so much information everywhere information overload does that make it harder for active investors the indexers say everyone's got access to the same information at the same time you can't beat the market well the way you beat the index is you you avoid the stocks to go down you avoid the steel companies and the oil companies and Sears and Penny and when it comes to deteriorated I mean companies are Dynamic the behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so you're trying to find the companies within the sv500 that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crappy to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time you're trying to avoid the companies that are going so that's how you beat them or you find sometimes outside the sphere 100 that are that are great companies CarMax was not in the sv500 then went up 200 fold there's a lot of times they enter and a lot of their Great Performances before they go in now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up they then they take their profits right and you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and you even got a call from Warren Buffett as a result yeah 1989 I'm at home the phone rings and those were my friends but one of my daughters and your six-year-old Annie picked up said she just there's a Mr Buffett online I said this could be a joke I pick it up and this Warren Buffett I'm from Omaha Nebraska you know I read your book but my Airport's doing two weeks I use the line you said that almost seven seconds and I said that's great I'd love to do it what you know what's the line he said I love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your great companies and add to the losers it's like water in the weeds and cutting the flowers he said I want to put it in he said if you ever come to Nebraska you don't call me nailed me mud all over Nebraska so did he call him oh yeah I said several times we play bridge together we've had several meetings great guys another point you've made and this is I think particularly relevant 10 years into a bull market is that I think you said more money has been lost anticipating a downturn than actually in the downturn can you explain well obviously the markets Market's gone up tenfold since I stopped running Magellan so you make more money upside the markets be a lot higher than 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste I don't know what's going to do it can go down when I ran Magellan 13 years declined 10 or more nine times the market wow I had a perfect record I went down more than 10 every time whatever the market went down it went down more but over the long term the upside is more than the downside so you're going to save yourself do I need the money in the next month do I need money next year do I have kids going to college do I have a wedding coming up then you're a bad investor if you can keep putting money in you have 5 10 15 20 25 year you should do well one thing we're thinking a lot about at Barron's is the secular changes we're seeing in the market where there's so much disruption that we wonder if certain industries they may be cheap and they may just keep on getting cheaper I mean retail would be an obvious one in some cases victims of Amazon but even the Auto industry very low price earnings multiples maybe the market sees something do you think secular changes is moving more rapidly now than it did in the 80s when you were running money no I saw the textile industry deteriorate I was recommend all the stocks on the way down I saw the signature go away Industries the industries can go from terrific to terrible there's a great expression that it's excellent industry they helped me a lot textile industry yeah it's always darkest before pitch black judging things are terrible they get terrible squared I mean so just because industry's getting bad that's not a reason invest wait for things to get better because again somebody might be involved in facility might be involved in Coal it may evolve an iron ornament they might be involved in Plastics they'll see it aluminum pickup before I do so you might that's a cyclical turnaround that might last two or three years you might see way before Wall Street season one broad area that you've recently said might be interesting is energy and it's very unloved on Wall Street right now uh what do you see in there well the difference between a glut right now and a shortage is like one million barrels a day you know the world consuming 100 million barrels a day one million each way so if the economy stays okay and these Shale Wells you deal with thousand barrels a day the first month a year later the 300.
wow and then they're 150 big drop off it's a real treadmill and right now there's no private Equity money there's no IPOs there's no bond market the banks want out private Equity wants out shale's going to slow down so these people think the chill is going to keep growing two three million barrels a day we've gone from 5 million barrels in the U.S producing to 12 and a half people think that's going to continue I don't believe it will Fearless thank you very much thank you
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