저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 전기차 시장 점유율 유지와 AI·배터리 경쟁력으로 장기 상승 여력이 크다는 주장. 사이버트럭은 성능 면에서 F-150 등 기존 픽업트럭을 크게 앞선다고 주장하며, 구글 트렌드 분석상 관심이 중서부·농촌 등 픽업 수요처에 집중돼 F-150의 실질적 경쟁자가 될 것이라고 언급. 테슬라의 배터리 원가 우위와 AI 칩, 실주행 데이터(140억 마일, 구글 1000만 마일 대비)가 경쟁 진입장벽이라고 설명. 기존 완성차는 전기차를 손실로 팔거나 가격을 올려야 할 것이라고 주장. 5년 최소 목표주가 700달러 제시. 이는 비관 시나리오(전기차 점유율 17%→6%로 3분의 2 상실)를 가정해도 연 15% 수익률을 얻는 수준이라고 설명. 낙관 시나리오는 점유율 11%를 예상했으나 17% 유지 가능성을 재검토 중. 2024년 전기차 판매를 3,700만 대로 전망해 전체 자동차 판매의 3분의 1 이상이라고 설명. 테슬라가 점유율을 유지하면 장기적으로 전기차 시장 성장의 수혜를 받는다고 주장. 진행자의 비관론(주가 10달러 하락) 질문에 대해 현실적 장벽을 간과한 주장이라고 일축. 시가총액은 테슬라가 자동차 회사가 아니므로 중요하지 않다고 응답.
다듬은 글
So, with us now is the " bull" on Tesla and Uber, Katie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest. Katie, it's so nice to see you. Thank you, Becky. Glad to be here. Tesla is the main asset in several ARK funds. Yes . Is this still the case? That's true. What do you think about the news we are seeing? It seems like every week there's a new story—either about Elon Musk or Tesla.
What do you think about it at the moment? What do you think of the Cybertruck? What do you think about the court that just found him not guilty of defamation? As for the Cybertruck, we analyzed it from many perspectives and metrics, and it far outperforms other pickup trucks. I mean, you saw him towing an F-150.
There were some doubts about whether the Cybertruck was the super pickup truck that... There were even questions when people saw it pulling a Ford F-150, because the car that started moving first got the advantage due to the slack in the cable. We did...Sam Korus , if you look on Twitter, you'll see a series of graphs he did comparing the Cybertruck to the F- 150 and other pickup trucks.
There's simply no comparison. Do you think that this... I think that's also a valid point. This is not necessarily a fair comparison. Do you think these will be people who would buy a Ford F -150, or is this a whole new market for... That's interesting. We did a Google Trends analysis of interest in the Cybertruck compared to the early days of the Model 3.
And we see that interest is concentrated exactly where it should be: in the Midwest, in more rural areas. So I really think it will be a serious competitor for the F-150. What should happen next with Tesla and its shares? What people are paying attention to now, because they had quite interesting and strong profit figures.
They worked better than expected. A lot depends on the next quarter. But what do you watch for to say, "Hey, we were right." "This is where things are headed, and the rate will continue to rise." Well, there are four barriers to entry that Tesla has, and I think many are now starting to realize them.
Their battery, the cost of their battery, is so much lower, much lower than other automakers , that these other automakers will be forced to sell their electric cars at a loss or at a higher price; or, if they want to compete with Tesla, they will have to sell at a loss as they lose their combustion engine business.
So, that's one competitive advantage. The second is their artificial intelligence chip. It's like taking an example from Apple, when Apple promoted the smartphone market much faster than Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola. She developed her own chip, and the rest is history. How much market share do you think Tesla needs to capture to reach the price you've been talking about for years for the stock price?
Well, our minimum five-year target price is $700, and that's assuming they lose two- thirds of their market share and don't have autonomous technology. They lost two- thirds of their market share. That is, from 17% of global electric vehicle sales to six. And by the way, just so we understand each other, you measure this by total electric vehicle sales and consider it a separate market.
the market is growing if their market share is decreasing. How did Apple do it, huh? But Apple kept 80% of the profits. What did you say the target price would be in your pessimistic scenario? $700, that's a doubling in five years, which is our minimum annual rate of return of 15%. But they have...you're talking about the total market share of electric vehicles, not the total automotive market share .
Right. So, they will be at the level of 17%. No, no, no, no. Now it is 17%. Yes. And our pessimistic forecast says they will lose two-thirds of that, dropping to 6%. Our optimistic forecast previously predicted that they would lose a third of their market share, falling to 11%. We are reviewing this because they have maintained a market share of 17% over time, and it is entirely possible that they can grow it.
How do you relate the electric vehicle market to the overall automotive market ? So if you were to take those numbers and translate them for us, well, the automotive market, do electric cars have to take over for those numbers to work, if you think about it in that context? Okay, we think electric vehicle sales in 2024 will be 37 million units.
So, this is more than a third of total car sales . And so if Tesla maintains its market share, I would have to do the math, but I think the more important statistic is the percentage of electric vehicles because that's where the market is headed. Right. Is n't that right? But I'm trying to understand, so ultimately, to the extent that you believe in your scenario, and I think pretty much everyone's scenario, that one day the entire auto industry will become 100% electric, I'm trying to understand: what does that mean for Tesla?
Yes, we believe that it could capture , we are inclined to believe that it will be able to maintain this market share of 17%. Yes. And what do you think when you hear people say that your "bearish" scenario is stocks rising more than twice from current levels? And our "bullish" scenario... But what do you think when you hear people say, " My bearish scenario...", there was that guy last week who was talking about it .
My bearish scenario is that the stock will fall to $10. Well, I think they ignore a lot of realities. We talked about the battery as a protective barrier, the AI chip as a barrier, their collected miles, real-world miles, which will power the AI engine. They have 14 billion miles, Google has 10 million miles, and yet Tesla is the only automaker that can make over-the-air software updates to change performance .
Which car manufacturer in the world has the largest market share right now? Well, I think it's Toyota and Volkswagen. What numbers would you give them now ? They have approximately, if I'm not mistaken, 10 million units each. Good. So what percentage of that... So, autos are about 85 to 90 million units sold per year.
Okay, and one last question: what about their market capitalization? Their market cap... it doesn't matter to us because Tesla is not a car company and it doesn't have and doesn't face the same obstacles that they face when trying to go electric and autonomous . This will be quite difficult. Katie, thank you for coming today. Please. Thank you.
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