저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 미국 주식이 실적과 밸류에이션 확장을 동시에 누리는 18~24개월 슈퍼사이클 진입을 주장. 현재 S&P500은 10%급 하락 후 11거래일 만에 회복한 V자 반등을 보였고, 유동성 주입(미 재무부 350억달러, 중국 4140억위안, 연준 대차대조표 확대)이 자산가격을 지지한다는 논리. 크립토는 Tom Lee 측이 이더리움을 대량 매집하며 5년 횡보 후 폭발적 상승을 예상. 기관 설문에서 79%가 디지털자산 배분을 고려한다는 근거 제시. 진행자는 20% 조정 가능성도 언급하고 개인 투자자가 늦게 들어오는 패턴을 강조.
다듬은 글
Whether it's in tech, healthcare, or financial services, or fintech, that's really US companies. And I think there was a an argument the US PE should derate, but but the war has exposed that the US multiple should be going up. Really? So, that could be accounting We could get both earnings and multiple expansion this year?
Yes, I think once we're through uh you know, this is still going to be a very tricky year because we we have a new Fed chair coming, and the market's going to test that Fed chair. But once we get through that subsequent turbulence, we will probably entering, you know, an 18-to-20-month 24-month period that might be the one of the best we've ever seen in our life.
So, Tom Lee is essentially calling for a stock market super cycle. Now, I will say this. The Fed chair getting tested, he also warned that a 20% pullback could happen. Now, not too sure if that's going to be the case or not, but we definitely need to be prepared for, you know, a major pullback at some point, especially with how vertical stocks have been going.
Now, you might be questioning, "Well, what about crypto?" And also, can we trust Tom Lee? Because for months on end, he was calling for a bull run, bull run, bull run going into October. October 10th hit, markets sold off. Going into the end of the year, he was still saying that we were going to bounce back big.
Again, we had a nice little bounce in the market going into January, but then, of course, we did have the war hit, and crypto just com- completely died. Um but obviously, nobody can predict what's going to happen with wars and things like that. Um I do think that Tom Lee is correct here, though. I feel like we are looking at a very prosperous time frame for, you know, stocks, for crypto, for financial markets.
And the The why is because of a few factors and I want to go over that here in a moment. Uh but real quick before we do continue on to this video because I know that a lot of you have been talking in the comments about the titles, things like that. Guys, I'm just going to be honest with you guys. YouTube is all about clickbait.
I hate to say it, but yes, if you do not do clickbait or some sort of clickbait or something to get clicks, YouTube does not push your content through the algorithm. So, please, if you have any complaints, take it up with YouTube. I I'm telling you guys right now, if I did titles that talked about the content 100%, YouTube just simply would not push it and there would be basically no life to this channel at all.
So, I do apologize for the clickbait and things like that. Um but it is a very competitive landscape and the landscape is, well, full of clickbait. But, with that being said, let's dive on in and let's talk about a few things. So, let's start off with, of course, the market psychology. Um I saw a great post from James Easton.
Now, he does work at uh Real Vision or at least he's an affiliate of Real Vision. And we have disbelief looking good here. And just taking a quick look at the overall chart, um yeah, I mean, where do you honestly think that we are here? Do you think that we are in the euphoric level of the crypto market or do you think that we are in complacency?
Like, where would you argue we are here? In my opinion, we are here is at disbelief. I actually think that disbelief is a perfect area to say that we are, you know, pretty much ranging around this level because again, everyone is saying, "Oh, yeah, sure. You know, this is, you know, just a nice little bounce in the market, but things are going to die die down and we're going to repeat what happened back in January.
Again, I hate that everyone is looking at the pattern and comparing it to January when if we go back to January, well, look what ended up happening. We invaded but it's the way I love, right? Quickly after that, we started to see the market bouncing slightly. But again, we were still hearing uncertainty in the market.
Then going into the end of February, well, we got the Iran war. So, the market really I would argue that the market is completely different today than back in January. But everyone has been saying like, "Oh, no, like we're we're still going down. We're going to go down past like $50,000 on Bitcoin. Altcoins are going to get absolutely slaughtered." It does feel like we are in that disbelief area.
Now, disbelief would lead into hope, optimism, belief, thrill, and then euphoria. And the good thing about the disbelief side of the market is that it's still very early, which means we have a lot more upside potential. And the prices in the market, especially for XRP, are not that low at all compared to like the prior cycle, which is something that's very very bullish.
But taking a quick look at a few other things, let's go back to the whole idea of this crazy, you know, cycle where prices are just going to go crazy. Well, we look at one factor, liquidity. And is liquidity improving? Yes. The US Treasury pumped $35 billion in liquidity last week. This is a very significant amount of money.
Now, is it close or similar to like the 2020 time period? No, because we were pumping trillions per month into, you know, the markets. The liquidity injection that we saw back in 2020 was a historical one. Do I think that we see something similar to it anytime soon? It's hard to say, but we know that Trump has been asking for, you know, a $1.5 trillion defense budget to, you know, improve our military.
Uh that's going into 2027. Um we know around the Iran war there was definitely a lot of talks about, you know, improving the budget. So, that's all money being printed. Now, war is the best excuse for propping up markets, injecting liquidity, and printing more money. It's also going to be very good for inflation going up, which is very bad for Well, yeah, you guessed it, us, the consumer.
Um however, during inflationary times, guess what prospers? Oh, yeah, that's right, assets, specifically risk-on assets, stocks, crypto. We also have gold and silver go crazy. So, this is a very good time to be positioning in That's right, assets. That's why I've always stated, own assets or be left behind.
The US Treasury is pumping money into, you know, the markets. We also know that China just injected 414 billion yuan in liquidity this week. And again, this is about 60 billion US dollars. It's pretty crazy, but liquidity is back on the table, and markets typically love to eat. And the market that's most sensitive to liquidity injections is, well, yeah, crypto, because it's so small.
So, a small piece of liquidity, well, crypto loves it, and it reacts in a big way. Do I think that we're there yet? No, but I do think that we will get there very soon. We also have here a little bit more of a glimpse into what is happening at the Fed. Uh so, since December, when QT ended, roughly $171.6 billion dollars has been added back to the Fed's balance sheet and we could actually see that chart here, which is pretty interesting to look at.
Um now, we do know that this is all quiet injections. Yes, we can see that it's made public. Yes, you can track this. You can track it all through, you know, specific websites. And you know, although yeah, it's not crazy because like in April, we injected 17.6 billion dollars, it's not going to affect things too much.
Um however, we know that the two-month total is about 40.3 billion. Again, yes, it's, you know, something interesting to watch, but but is this enough money to really, you know, make the market go crazy like 2021? No. Again, I I will say that 2020, the liquidity injections that we were seeing were absolutely face-melting.
They They were historical amounts of liquidity injections. Um and the question is like, how do we get back to that? And I don't necessarily think that we get back to it unless we see like a major black swan event or something similar to like a pandemic uh that causes, you know, the need for major injections like that.
War is definitely a good excuse, uh but it's questionable on if we're going to get that with this Iran war because it seems as though things are starting to kind of cool down a bit. Um but again, we definitely still focus on injections regardless because there could be a major, you know, bank implosion.
Uh there could be, you know, a warning sign that, you know, the banking system might actually have like an implosion and that calls for, well, yes, the Fed stepping in. Um but on top of all this, we go back to we go back to Tom Lee because he also stated, the rally shifts to retail. So, big shout to CryptoZombies for this.
So, institutional players bought the dip. Retail missed it, but still has firepower. That's fuel for the next move. Now, he is talking about stocks, but I do want to talk about this in regards to crypto as well, because I am seeing something very interesting in the crypto market. But, check this video clip out.
It's about 56 seconds long. Check it out. and 7238 is where I'm looking at right now on on the S&P. Where are we going, Tom? Where I mean, you figured we'd get here cuz you said as much when you thought we hit the bottom. But, you know, we we've come so far, so fast. Does that mean we've stolen some from the future and moved it forward?
What does that tell us? Well, I know um strong markets tend to and I I I'm going to sound uh not very original, but strong markets stay strong. So, I I think the strength that we've seen is is a good sign and and we also know when we look at the data that institutional investors caught the bottom. But, I think in this particular in 2026, it's retail that kind of missed the low.
But, they have a lot of firepower. So, I I think it's going to be a retail driven um buying of stocks, and that's why I think broadening can take place cuz as you know, retail investors do like small mid cap stocks as well. in 7 So, basically what he's saying is that retail will, you know, chase the the gains as they usually do.
And the main thing that I look at is crypto. Like, what about crypto? Are we going to see something similar to crypto? Because yes, the S&P 500 pulled off an absolute massive V-shaped recovery. It was a, you know, record-breaking one. And it's 10% to fully re- covered in 11 sessions because we did see a significant crash in the market.
It was a 10% loss, and it only took 11 days to bounce back in a massive way compared to like all of these other um you know, market reaction levels like the dot-com crash or global financial crisis or even the EU debt crisis. Like, it took 50 days, 318 days, 103 days. Like, even back in 2025, it took, you know, 55 days in total to the back.
And well, liquidity, as you guys can see, has been very powerful in having a major V-shaped recovery in stocks. But, what about crypto? Well, we know that Bitmain, which is a Tom Lee company, they actually bought up a ton of Ethereum. Tom Lee and Bitmain emerging believe Ethereum is set for an explosive move after a massive 5-year consol- consolidation.
Lee says that the next rally will be mainly driven by tokenization and agentic AI. Agree 100%. Now, although yes, they are buying up a ton of Ethereum. They're very bullish on Ethereum, as you guys can see just from this chart. This is basically that 5-year consolidation phase, and you know, the last time that we consolidated back in like 2018 going into 2020, we saw a 54x.
Now, this time around, I'm not Like again, like we know that diminished gains is, you know, a real thing. Like going back to 2017, 2018's bull run, you know, Ethereum saw a 227x. After that, a 54x. So, this time around, like I'm looking at this and possibly saying like, all right, well, maybe, you know, maybe like a 10x from here.
And that's still like a 20 almost $4,000 Ethereum. But, if we see that, imagine what happens to XRP. Like imagine what happens to XRP. Imagine what happens to all coins, because again, remember, Ethereum typically is the one that leads the way for all coins to go crazy. And Tom Lee has been buying a ton of Ethereum, and I mean a ton of Ethereum.
So far, they sold a total of 56.52 million of Ethereum to Bitmain, and they're talking about the Ethereum Foundation because they sold another 22.9 million of Ethereum to Bitmain. And Vitalik is selling, but Tom Lee is buying. And if we're looking at all of the transactions here, yeah, there's tens of thousands of Ethereum being sold to Bitmain.
They constantly are buying and they're basically becoming the Michael Saylor of Ethereum. And this is actually kind of wild. Um but again, Tom Lee is putting in his, you know, money where his mouth is and basically buying up a massive amount of Ethereum at this point. And I don't blame him. Um especially in in the current landscape of the crypto market because again, we know institutional players, just like stocks, they have been buying or at least planning on buying heavy in crypto.
Here we have from Nomura. They published their 2026 institutional survey. 518 Japanese investment pros. The number many are citing is 31% positive outlook. That tells part of the story. So, 79% of Japanese institutional players are considering digital assets plan to, you know, allocate within 3 years.
And we know that 60% of those allocating intend to put 2 to 5% of portfolio assets under management to work in digital assets. Staking, lending, uh collateralized loans, tokenized assets, stablecoins. This is very beneficial for networks and assets like the XRP Ledger and XRP. Well, so have the number of that matters.
Uh 79% of Japanese institutional players are considering digital assets have plans to invest in the next 3 years. So, I don't necessarily look at this like a 3-year period. I think that institutional players are going to move in a lot quicker. We even have over here, the percentage doesn't surprise us as much as who is saying it.
That's from 1,000 leaders across banks, asset managers, fintechs, and corporates. The signals are getting stronger that institutional players are reorienting around on chain. And here we have from March of 2026 that 72% of global finance leaders believe that digital asset solutions are needed to remain competitive.
And also, what was talked about last week back in the beginning of April, 25% of institutions plan to add XRP exposure in 2026. What's even crazier about this is if we look at this, yes, 56 plan on or 56% plan on adding any other coin beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum 90%, Bitcoin 91%. So, institutional players have been buying the dip.
Um I don't think that there's a better time for institutional players to be putting money to work right now, which is also why you're starting to see so much institutional grade adoption. Very similar to the S&P 500, yes, institutional players always buy at the right time. Retail is typically chasing.
And the same goes for crypto. Like I keep seeing a lot of people saying like, "Oh, just so you know, like retail is going to come back and buy and pump everything to new highs." Retail does not win. Retail is typically screwed over every single time. Which means this time around like is no different from any other cycle.
I said people in crypto still don't have it figured out. The retail crowd was never the driver of previous cycles. Even in 2020, right? Like most of retail showed up after, you know, Elon Musk was talking about Dogecoin or after we started to see like the run go absolutely insane. 2017 was the same thing.
Like retail was barely paying attention until the last final move in the winter. And by that point, like the market was already almost topped out. This cycle, retail is barely here while institutional players are accumulating, launching crypto-driven products and ETFs. If you are still here, you are positioned before the crowd returns.
And yeah, like it's the same exact setup here. And Tom Lee is basically telling you like, "Listen, stocks are going to continue." And in previous cycles, yes, typically stocks have rallied and then crypto followed. Crypto typically lags behind stocks. If you go back to the full time frame, everyone was wondering, "Why is gold Why is silver going crazy?
Why are stocks going crazy, but crypto is doing nothing?" Do you think that that will last forever? No. Crypto will play catch-up and when it does a lot of people are going to be shocked by because everyone is still in that disbelief side of the market. The psychology here is old coins are dead. They're never having an old season.
The market has completely changed. So, there's no more, you know, get getting rich off of, you know, old coins. You have to be in Bitcoin or Ethereum. Oh, all the institutional players are saying that you need Bitcoin, Ethereum. You need to lock in on Solana or you need to do this. No. I understand that this time around, yes, things are a bit different.
Yes, the cycle is starting to mature a bit. But, the main thing that we're looking at here is that, yes, there's a ton of old coins that are still sitting absolutely flat. And when we start to see liquidity improve and when we start to see capital entering crypto you're going to start to see these old coins go absolutely insane like similar cycles as well.
The setup here is just a little bit different. However, all of the facts are still there. You have liquidity improving. You have this war cooling off a bit. At the same time that stocks just pulled off a historical V-shaped recovery. One of the most historical ones in history. And we're supposed to believe that crypto is just going to sit still?
By the time that crypto starts to actually bounce back and rally you're going to hear so many people say like, "Oh, dead cat bounce. Oh, it's a scam rally. Oh, no, this is, you know, I'm not I'm not trusting this this pump." They won't trust the pump until we're back to 100K plus. And by that point, like it's going to it's already going to be too late to position.
You're going to see things going crazy. And again, I watched this happen in previous cycles, too. Institutional players are buying. They always buy at the right time. They know exactly when things are going to bottom. They're already launching products. They're not waiting for clarity. They're here.
They're now. And they're going to continue to flood in. While retail still sits on the sidelines. So with that being said, I hope you guys enjoyed this video. If you guys did, feel free to like, subscribe, turn notifications on for some more free content. You guys more than welcome to follow me on Twitter and join the free Discord in the description below.
And with that being said guys, it's been Nick. Thanks for watching. Peace out guys.
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