저자: TomLee/진행자Nick · 외국인
요약 보기
크립토 가격이 바닥을 찍었다는 낙관론. S&P500 신고점 돌파로 위험자산 모멘텀 회복 신호, 다음 주 FOMC 전후 변동성 예상. 비트코인은 추가 투매 후 반등 가능성, 알트코인은 여전히 약세 관점. Tom Lee는 이더리움 매수 및 유동성 개선(QT 종료, 금리인하)을 근거로 바닥론 제시. 진행자는 비트코인 전 저점 이탈 전까지 강세 구조 유지 판단.
다듬은 글
Number two, I think crypto prices have bottomed. And I think that this in the next 8 weeks, we're going to shatter the Bitcoin four-year cycle. I don't think it's going to be a four-year cycle this time. We have been talking about how the four-year cycle has completely changed. In fact, we've been talking about how the four-year cycle never existed.
Why have we been talking about this? Well, it's because everyone is still dead set on the 4-year cycle being in play or how we're going into a bare market because again, the four-year cycle, I've talked about the four-year cycle. I've addressed how we've never really followed a timeframe cycle. We've followed a liquiditybased cycle that just so happened to align with a 4-year time period that has changed.
Now, I do agree with Tom Lee here. In fact, I even said over on X that I think that crypto prices have bottomed. I'm agreeing with Tom on this one. Sentiment has been extremely negative with PA forming higher highs and higher lows. It feels like a flood of FOMO will soon hit this space, but by then we will already be significantly higher.
Now, this was on the 4th. Earlier today, we did see Bitcoin trade back under 90K and we also witnessed 125 million plus dollars in liquidated assets. Is this the bottom? Well, we were talking about how Bitcoin could have a sell-off um in the video from earlier today. Now, we'll talk about that. But if we go and look at stocks today, the biggest sign that momentum is picking up from risk on assets is the S&P making a higher high today.
We made a higher high based on the November 12th high. In fact, I have been following this since going all the way back to the prior high, which was on November 20th. I said we needed to break this structure of us just creating lower highs and lower lows. Well, we broke that officially on the 25th. We wicked above this high and then the 26th we just continued to break higher and then we just continued into of course today.
Now, considering the fact that we broke the last two prior highs, the next focus here is the all-time high. And this is going to be the biggest sign of strength from risk on assets. And this is exactly what I'm watching for going into next week. And the best part about this is, of course, next week is FOMC week.
So, volatility is going to pick up. we're going to start to see an increased amount of pressure on the the S&P as well as, you know, crypto. And this is where we could start to really see a big picture paying it for us. Now, again, I'm in agreement with Tom Lee that yes, crypto has bottomed, but with the crypto prices looking like this today, everyone is still questioning, are we actually bottomed?
Well, fear and greed is still at 25. We already hit extreme fear. Um, the market cap of crypto was just hovering around $3 trillion. And this is what Bitcoin looks like today. Now, in yesterday's video, I said that we could see Bitcoin still retest this trend line. That trend line retest would be around 85 86K.
Today's wick took us to 88.1K. I'm still expecting that we could potentially see another wash out event down to this trend line before we have a big reversal. Crypto exchanges are not safe. It does not matter the size of the exchange either. Bybit, the fourth largest crypto exchange by trading volume recorded one of the largest crypto hacks in history back in February where $1.4 billion was stolen.
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I would typically expect this to happen over the weekend. If we are going to see a massive sell-off, it would essentially be over the weekend. We got to remember that the last time that we had a major sell-off was around the 30th of November. The 30th of November was, of course, a Sunday. The last time that we had a major capitulation event prior to that, all right, was the 20th all the way through into the 21st.
Now, this did not align with weekend price action. In fact, this was a Thursday into Friday. However, over that weekend, we started to pump and we started to reverse. Now, if we're thinking about this time around, are we going to have the same sell-off into the weekend like we saw back here and then a reversal or are we just going to continue to chop into Sunday and then sell off like we saw on the last major sell-off?
Either way, I'm still expecting the aftermath to be the same, which is of course us reversing to the upside every single time. I'm not bearish right now on Bitcoin unless we lose our prior lows. As long as we create these higher low structures, I'm totally fine with Bitcoin. It's still bullish structure.
And even recently, we created a higher high going off of our previous highs. So, this is telling us that Bitcoin should see continuation, but it is going to take a little bit of time. We're still chopping. The best part about this, though, is that we're chopping in an uptrend. Now, Bitcoin is still at roughly 28 for fear.
Last week, we were at 25 for extreme fear and even most old coins like XRP, right? We've been addressing XRP's price chart as well. Um, now XRP has been in this sort of uptrend. Right now, we're retesting this trend line. This is what I want to see for most old coins. I essentially want them to create this bullish structure.
I want to see us, you know, retest the trend line. And if we can bounce here and if we maintain this low, that would be bullish. Now, I do not want to see XRP break down below prior lows. That's not going to be a good sign of strength for XRP. But most old coins are in a completely different scenario than of course Bitcoin because if we are expecting lower on Bitcoin, most of these old coin charts should see lower.
So what we really mainly look at is instead of looking at the trend here, we look at that significant low. So we should maintain this low. Yes, we are still focused on our prior lows, but it doesn't seem as though this is going to be the main focus when we're still expecting Bitcoin to have another little wipeout event here.
Um, so most old coins are going to remain a little bit more bearish at this moment while we do wait for a sign of a reversal on Bitcoin in a larger way. But I think that stocks are showing us that sign of a reversal a little bit earlier than most. Now, let's go and look at what Tom Lee recently just said and why he believes that the market has bottomed out.
Well, here we have Tom Lee just bought $130 million worth of Ethereum. Two fresh new Bitmine wallets just purchased a combined $130 million of Ethereum matching Bitmine's known purchase patterns. Bit mine has bought 97,650 Ethereum this week and currently holds 12 billion worth of Ethereum. That is 3.16% of the total Ethereum supply.
This is Tom Lee putting his money where his mouth is. If he's calling the bottom, he's going to be buying as well. Now, I do think that Tom Lee is a little bit insane in terms of some of his price predictions for Ethereum. However, I do agree with him that crypto prices are bottomed out. Here we have from Tom Lee at Binance Blockchain Week.
Tom Lee explained why crypto prices have bottomed. Crypto's acting like there's a crypto winner because gold's up 61% year-to date. Big shout out to All in Crypto for this. Check it out. So, let me explain to you why I think crypto prices have bottomed. First of all, crypto is acting like there's a crypto winter because uh gold's up 61% year-to date, S&P's up almost 20% and you can see Bitcoin and Ethereum actually are negative year to date.
And I really like this uh article by Jeff Dorman at Arca who said the selling that nobody can explain. I think many people can say why they think crypto prices have fallen but nobody really understands why. But here's what I just want to point out. [clears throat] This is Bitcoin's year-to- date performance.
And Bitcoin was having a good year until October 10th. Now, after October 10th, a lot of people tried to explain why crypto is declining. It's the quantum risk to Bitcoin. Crypto winter starting. I have so many traditional investors telling me that's the only reason. They say, "Tom, it's the four-year cycle." Of course, we had the October 10th liquidation event, the biggest liquidation in history.
A lot of people say it's the AI stocks have captured mind share. Um, Micro Strategy recently said they might sell their Bitcoin. That scared some people. MSCI may exclude digital asset treasuries from indexes. And of course, Tether got a ratings downgrade. So, maybe some of these could explain why crypto's down.
But just keep in mind, crypto was up 36% until October 10th and then it's gone straight down. Um, I personally think it has a lot to do with deleveraging. Once we engaged Tom, we took a different strategy with regard to our Ethereum purchasing. And you can see our Ethereum purchases fell by half to 50,000 a week.
But we begun to buy Ethereum again. You can see last week we bought almost 100,000 ETH twice what we did 2 weeks before and I will give you a hint we definitely bought more than that this so there you guys have it right accumulation from Tom Lee is in place and I do agree with him I think that a lot of the the downward spiral around crypto has been deleveraging deleveraging ahead of some pretty pretty significant updates around the space including of FOMC meetings.
On top of that, major releases around financial data. Um, but also I do think that a lot of the liquidations have been caused by market makers going bust as well, and we've talked about that. But when we have these heightened, extremely bearish scenarios surrounded by a very bullish environment, well, it's hard not to be a bull.
And we've been talking about that even with, of course, the Fed and what the Fed has been doing. Um, the Kabisi letter put out a great post regarding the environment right now around risk on assets. We now have the biggest technological boom since the internet, ongoing Fed interest rate cuts into the AI boom, Trump's impending new Fed chair announcement, 700 billion plus in annual technology capex, the end of quantitative tightening, widespread deregulation initiatives by the SEC, the most market conscious US president ever, two plus trillion in annual deficit spending, 13% year-over-year earnings growth in the S&P 500, the return of global fiscal stimulus.
What's the bare case? Now, on top of that, we did just get a big update regarding inflation. Breaking September PCE inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation measure rises to 2.8% in line with expectations of 2.8%. Core PCE inflation fell to 2.8% below expectations of 2.9%. Headline PCE inflation is at the highest since October of 2023.
Yet, the Fed will keep cutting interest rates because again, all of this data is showing them that everything is in line with expectations or below expectations, which tells us there's no reason for the Fed not to cut interest rates at this moment. And I do think that this is going to be the last official rate cut for at least over a year.
We kind of have the same exact environment here from 2020 where, you know, 2020 was essentially well, it was 2019 and 2020. Those two years aligned with rate cuts. Our rate cuts started back in 2024 and then they continued in 2025. If we have that same setup, then 2021 will essentially be 2026 where we have a year of no rate cuts.
Risk on assets continue to go boom and the entire market wakes back up. And again, we're already seeing more predictions around rate cuts. We have an 87.2% 2% chance of a rate cut happening on the 10th if this aligns perfectly with that 2020 2021 time frame. Um, and I'm not looking at time frame. I'm just looking at the setup.
Okay, so if we're thinking about liquidity improving, which liquidity is 100% improving, QT just ended. We're starting to see the Treasury already buying up more US treasuries, which is insane. Um, so we're starting to see injections happening. The Fed has been injecting money into the banking system.
We've been seeing the Treasury buying up US treasuries. Um, and liquidity just around risk on assets have been improving over the last roughly couple weeks. Now, if we're thinking about all of this going into 2026, the environment technically is pretty bullish. I don't see a bare case at this moment.
The only bare case would be everyone looking at, you know, price action and saying, "Oh, well, the the price action sucks right now." However, since our low going back to November 21st, we have been creating a bullish structure here in terms of TA. So, even looking at everything from TA to the environment to, you know, all the the entire setup, it's very bullish for crypto.
And until we start to break these lows, I'm not going to flip my my overall idea on the fact that I do believe that we are bottomed here. It's a very clear insight and I do agree with Tom Lee here. So with that being said, I hope that you guys enjoyed this video. If you guys definitely leave a like, subscribe notifications on for more free content, you guys more than welcome to follow me on Twitter and join the free Discord in the description below.
And with that being said, guys, this has been Nick. Thanks for watching. Peace out.
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