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미국 실업률 상승이 경기침체 신호라는 주장. 15개 주 실업률 상승, Sam Rule 지표(주별 3개월 이동평균 0.5%p 이상 상승) 발동 주 수가 3→20개로 증가했다고 인용. Bill Gross 발언(S&P 밸류에이션 과대, 주요 경기침체 우려, 연준 6~12개월 내 금리인하 전망)을 소개하고 Tesla 실적 부진을 언급. 금리인하 시 금·은 등 귀금속에 유리할 것이라는 견해 제시.
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hi everybody welcome back to Ox talks yes today is Wednesday and it is January 24th 2024 one one excuse me 12424 uh yes yesterday I did uh say it was Wednesday when in fact it was Tuesday apologize for the senior moment uh no uh disrespect intended for us seniors um and uh it does happen when sometimes s the days blurred together thank you for being here I appreciate you watching this channel I ask that you please subscribe if you haven't subscribed already uh let's continue to get the word out about the economic reality in this country uh it really helps if you hit the thumbs up button and also hit the Bell notification uh I want to wake these alos up and uh continue to grow this community and that's how we that's how we get it done please share the videos with with your family friends uh co-workers and colleagues anybody that uh is not yet awake yet maybe they're open to some new ideas and learning and and paying attention to other news sources than just the Nightly News uh so with that being said let's jump into today's news I pulled a couple of very important articles that I'm going to cover with you today and I'll probably spend considerable amount of time on both of them keeping in line with my 15 or so minute video the first one is out of a news week and it's entitled unemployment rate Rises um excuse me unemployment rate rise Rings alarm Bells over US economy it says the rise in state level unemployment rates is nearly a third in nearly a third of the country last month should raise concerns over the state of the US economy according to an economist this is according to a new report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics quoted by Reuters on Tuesday 15 states saw their unemployment rates climb in December compared to only three the month before so unemployment rates are rising across the board in many of the states in this country 13 states and the District of Colombia had unemployment rates out or above 4% and that's the highest since December of 2022 it says this happened despite the fact that the national average unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% from one month to the next and from the addition of 216,000 jobs in December uh and I think you have to take that jobs number with a grain of salt uh those job numbers are probably cooked and we most likely if they haven't already been revised downward once twice or three times when no one's paying attention the article continues it says uh Parker Ross Global Chief Economist at American public limited liability company art Capital group based in Bermuda said that the latest data on unemployment suggests the US economy might still be at risk of entering a recession uh if you believe that we haven't already entered a recession uh then let's listen to hear what this guy uh has to say he says state level unemployment rates were just released and they continueed the string of bad news from the household survey Ross rote on X and this is important it says quote it's been a while since I've refreshed the data set and now my updated state level Sam rule indicator is really heating back up in fact it's now above the threshold that marked the onset of every single recession since the 1970s he continued and we've discussed the Sam rule uh on prior videos on this channel before it says the Sam rule is used to identify signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national employment rate Rises by 0.5% points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months that's the s rule it says the FED uses the Sam rule to determine when the count country has entered a recession through the month of December 20 States had triggered the Sam rule up sharply from just three states in September that going from three to 20 that is a substantial increase in the number of states had triggered this Sam Rule and alarming unemp rise in unemployment rates it says Ross wrote These 20 states are New Jersey West Virginia Wisconsin Arizona California Washington DC Alaska Montana Missouri Illinois Idaho Arkansas Maine Michigan Indiana Oklahoma Colorado New Hampshire Iowa and Kentucky wow that's a mouthful it says he nearly 25% of States had triggered the Sam rule last November when layoffs were picked up in Tech or when layoffs picked up uh in Tech real estate and finance we discussed that on previous videos but then those tapered off and the share pivoted sharply lower just below reaching the threshold for typical recessions and I wonder why that was if you recall uh we got some news saying boy the Sam rule wasn't triggered we Mar we just narrowly missed it but we're on the right path so you wonder if uh if the numbers that staved off triggering the Sam rule across this nation uh were uh were in any way manipulated or modified uh you guys can answer that question for yourself post your comments below it says Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the two states that reported the biggest month two-month unemployment increase in the country in December of 2023 with 3% Point climb Minnesota it says was the only state in the nation to uh experience a drop in unemployment which came down by 0.
2% Nevada had the highest overall employment rate in the excuse me overall employment rate in the United States which remained unchanged from November at 5.4% you that's interesting given that the real estate market in Nevada from what I'm seeing has been collapsing um so unemployment rate across most of uh the majority of the state States in this country is going in the wrong direction uh leave a comment below let me know you know what state you guys are in and and and what's your experiencing uh in your area the next article is from uh the business excuse me markets Insider today thought it was important to share with you another billionaire this guy uh is known as the was known as the bond King Bill gross uh I googled this guy's worth estimates are between 1.8 to 2.
billion he's a billionaire so the guy um understands you know economics he understands the markets the stock market the bond market and what he says is stocks look overstretched and a major recession could hit if interest rates don't drop this year he says stock valuations are stretched a major recession is a real threat and the US is caught in a debt spiral Bill gross has warned so he uses the word May major recession not soft Landing not uh mild recession but major recession says the billionaire co-founder of bond giant Pimco told Bloomberg on Monday that the S&P trading at an all-time record high doesn't make sense to him The Benchmark stock index's priced earnings ratio of about 19 he says it's much too high when the real or inflation adjusted interest rate today is a restrictive 1.8% uh Bill gross said it says ultimately PE ratios have to get more in balance with real interest rates which are relatively high growth continues the in um well it says the investor knows the bond King cautioned against piling more money into the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks that led the market higher last year he says it's probably time to cool it off a little bit and put your money elsewhere um and the say he says of the technology stocks include Tesla and nid Nvidia gross touted cheaper less risky stocks in sectors like energy tobacco and telecoms that are paying attractive dividend yields of anywhere between five and 10% I saw just a little while ago after the market closed Tesla came out with their earnings and they missed on both the top line and the bottom line so I saw after hours that stock has fallen about three or 4% maybe even more uh there was a a text from a friend of mine this morning said he was going to buy Tesla stock and I said uh I would uh I would maybe be shorting Tesla stock so again I'm not a stock guy I was kind of joking around but you know given the story we shared the other day about the value of these Tesla automobiles plummeting it seemed to me that Tesla was going to have those were used I get it but it seemed to me that Tesla was going to have to come out and announce a Slowdown sure enough I didn't I didn't read the article just looked at the the conclusion so uh Tesla's down their stock is down uh says the FED he says the FED should Bill grow says the FED should lower interest rates over the next six to 12 months explaining that would that would basically balance out real interest rates and lower them so the economy won't go into a significant recession so he uses the word significant major and significant gross urged investors to be cautious in light of myriad of domestic and overseas threats he also struck a resigned note on ballooning debt piles in the United States and many other countries it's simply a situation he says now where there's too much debt and in order to keep that debt rolling and keep the economies rolling on a nominal basis it's necessary on the part of central banks to maintain a relatively easy monetary policy and the same thing with fiscal policy uh so you know what obviously what he's saying is that the FED is going to have to come back down with the rates is going to have to make this pivot we'll see when and if that happens obviously the stock market is banking on it and uh obviously not giving you Financial advice but if that does happen I that will probably probably bode well for precious metals prices both silver and gold you know I've discussed on this channel before that I'm a a believer in uh in in physical medals as a uh as a as a way to uh protect some wealth as a way to have some assets outside the system as a as basically a way to save as a savings account or Savings Plan it's not a getrich uh quick scheme with that being said I'll leave it there for news today my deposition was going to be going Friday I got a call from opposing Council this morning and he and his client are both the witness are both sick so that's been put over for a week it buys me a bit more time to keep preparing uh so I've filled the time on Friday uh with going to take my uh every 2-year CCW renewal Course California now has made it an eight hour course unbelievably so um so I'm going to take care of that Friday I'll be leaving here in about an hour to go get my workout in I'm hearing a lot of encouraging comments from from you guys about the workouts and what you're doing with your Fitness routine your diet routine really encouraging you know I'm doing this of every day I'm not just telling you to do it I've been living this for you know several years now getting myself uh you know back to a a level of physical fitness that I can be proud of uh and that is sustainable for me so you have to start with realistic goals you can't just go in and say I'm gonna drop 50 pounds overnight it doesn't happen that way you have to just start with a doable plan execute the plan meaning in terms of your your daily walking your daily um cardio routine get some weight uh some weights in there it's important for muscle tone uh and for weight loss that you work in some weight training if your if you physically can uh can do that and of course we talk about every day the diet is uh more important as if now it's as important if not more important than the exercise regimen they have to go hand in hand so you can actually see some results and uh and and better yourself so thanks again everybody for watching uh let's stay the course I'll continue to uh bring you current events every day and try to uh try to keep us all you know with eyes wide open as we embark on what everybody seems to be saying uh it's not you know on CNBC and not Jim Kramer is saying uh is is going to be happening this year in this economy with that being said everyone have a great night I'll talk to you tomorrow bye
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