저자: Ox · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 X에 올린 프라이빗 크레딧·보험사 관련 65페이지 보고서("Private Credit, Public Support")를 소개하며, PE가 생명보험사를 인수해 불투명한 사모신용 자산을 쌓고 리스크를 사회화한다고 경고. 보험 계약 사망보험금 총액 약 40조~60조 달러 언급, 해지환급금 기준 지급 가능성 지적. 최근 아폴로의 소프트뱅크 비전펀드2 대상 최대 54억 달러 순자산담보대출(오픈AI 지분 포함)을 AI 버블·구조화금융 리스크와 연결. 구체적 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I have a lot of information that I want to try to convey to you today in my usual eight and a half minutes. I'm trying to put a few things together. I hope it comes out coherently and you can follow the thought. First, I saw an article, although it's not an article, it's a study. This is a 65- page single-spaced report .
It is titled " Private Credit, Public Support: How Private Capital Socializes Risk Through Insurers." Authors—A. Prol and Andrew Granado, posted a few days ago, last week it seems. Do you know who drew attention to this? Michael Burry from The Big Short, he made a few posts on his page in X—Cassandra Unchained.
He first began, a few days ago, with the words: "Everyone should read this, everyone." And he adds a screenshot of the first page of the report to his post in X. Then the same day, I see, he writes another post in X: "This is the last stone that private equity is pushing away." Yes ? This is a very powerful statement.
So, he summarizes this whole report, and I'm going to have to go through it and, you know, dissect it. It is very, very detailed. He says private equity ( PE) firms have acquired large life insurance companies and loaded their balance sheets with private credit assets that are opaque and difficult for regulators to assess.
When a life insurer becomes insolvent, state guarantee funds protect policyholders. Remember this thought . I spoke with Rod Dubitsky. He says that's not necessarily true. It says by valuing the assets of surviving insurers to cover the deficit. In most states, such expenses are fully deductible over time against state taxes on insurance premiums.
Privately held life insurers reflect a structural transformation in which the insurer supports a broader asset management business designed to extract value up front and pass on losses to others. Private equity firms are taking advantage of this regulatory regime by combining life insurance with private lending to benefit both sides.
Don't forget to subscribe to the channel, please. Click the notification bell and check the Risk Map newsletter. The new release will be here at the end of the month. Actually, August 1st, I'll write it this weekend. So, let me explain: first, this was a brief summary by Michael Burry in his X- post about this voluminous article, but let me explain why Rod says that some of the fundamental points may not quite apply to the real issues.
And let me get to that. In our video or in our interview a few days ago, Rod was just talking about the volume of life insurance policies in force in the United States. I think he said a figure of around $60 trillion. I found a figure for the end of 2024 that indicated that there was approximately $40 trillion in life insurance in force in the United States, and that was through individual policies .
So, this means that from 2024 to today, this figure has actually increased. This includes individual life insurance, group insurance, and credit life insurance. So the "current" amount, my friends, means the total amount of death benefits currently guaranteed under all life insurance policies combined .
Of course? For example, let's say you have a policy with a death benefit of one million dollars . Okay? This is added to the total number of policies in force . The insurance company doesn't need to have a million dollars in cash under this policy. They hold reserves and invest premiums— premiums that you pay, that insurers pay, according to regulatory capital requirements, to cover expected future payouts.
But here's the problem. When these structures begin to collapse, payments from these funds, friends, as I understand it, are not made on the basis of the death benefit amount . Payments are made based on the surrender value of the policy. For example, Rod says, you might have a policy with a death benefit of $1 million and a surrender value of $50,000.
This is what you will get. This is what these policyholders will get when these dominoes start falling and this whole system starts to collapse. So I'm going to continue to cover this, because yesterday I got a comment from a long-time viewer —nothing personal—that I was covering the same topic, and he was hoping I would touch on something else.
I want you to understand something from my perspective. This is a topic that touches on everything. I'll quickly show you how intertwined it all is . But when it falls, my friends, it will hit our beloved stock market. This will affect AI. And that means even more lost jobs in this country. So as far as I can tell—and I had no idea when I started digging into this about 10 months ago—how deep this rabbit hole goes: private equity, private credit, insurers, the connection to the AI data center boom and the whole bubble that's going on right now.
So, let me explain to you how it's all so closely intertwined. Rod brought this to my attention in connection with the Apollo deal. So, Apollo Global increased its net asset-backed loan to SoftBank. SoftBank's Vision Fund 2—up to $5.4 billion, making it the largest publicly announced net asset-backed loan to date.
The loan is secured, listen up, by the value of the Vision Fund 2 investment portfolio, which includes 150 technology companies and a $ 2.2 billion stake in OpenAI itself. OK. Apollo uses Athene insurance capital to invest in them because they are structured to get the investment ratings we talked about.
OK. So with SoftBank, this is how it works . SoftBank owns Vision Fund 2. SoftBank is a very important part of this AI boom right now. Vision Fund 2 owns stakes in companies such as OpenAI, against whose net portfolio assets Apollo issues loans . Athene or other insurance portfolios managed by Apollo hold this loan as an investment.
Let me explain quickly: a net asset-backed loan is a loan that is secured by more than one company. Instead, the lender takes the entire investment fund as collateral as leverage. Good. In this case, the collateral includes hundreds of technology investments, with OpenAI being one of the largest disclosed positions.
So, we're talking about a huge intersection here, okay? OK. And about the interconnected nature between AI, private lending, insurance company capital, and this " time bomb " of structured finance. OK. So this is, from my perspective, a major topic, and we will continue to cover it. I appreciate you guys watching my shows.
If you like the content, please like the video. Rod and I are working on some material right now. I will also go through this massive report in detail and highlight what I consider to be the most important points from a layman's perspective, as Michael Bury has only provided a very brief overview. But if a guy like Bury says this is a last-ditch attempt to delay the inevitable, we should be very careful.
I appreciate your support. Again , like, subscribe, hit the bell, and leave your thoughts and comments on this. I will continue to cover this topic. That's all, see you soon. Thank you. See you later.
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