저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 공격과 방어의 균형을 강조하며 '손실 위험'과 '기회 상실 위험'을 대비시킨다. 옥트리는 현재 완전 투자 상태이되 평소보다 신중한 입장을 유지하며, 현금 전환은 이진적 판단이라 피한다고 설명. 주식시장에 대해 다소 두려움을 느끼지만 빠져나가는 것도 더 두렵다고 말한다. 후반부 내레이션은 점진적 매수와 일부 현금 보유의 분할 전략을 제시한다. 구체 자산 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
The most important single decision we get to make is whether our portfolio at a given point in time should emphasize offense or defense. Aggressiveness or caution. I think that everybody in this room, to the extent you're in the investment business, is subject every day to what I call the twin risks.
What are the twin risks that affect us? The first risk is very obvious. It's the risk of losing money. What's the second risk? A little more subtle. It's the risk of missing opportunity. Now, if you come to me and you say, "Howard, I want a fund from Oaktree and I want to be 100% sure that I can't lose a penny." Then I say, "Okay, Teresa, we'll put you all into T-bills." And you can't lose a penny, but you miss every opportunity.
If you instead you come in, you say, "Howard, I want a fund and I want to be 100% sure that I don't miss any opportunities." Then I say, "Okay, no T-bills for you." And now you don't miss any opportunities and you are completely exposed to the risk of losing money. You can't eliminate both risks at the same time.
You can eliminate one, which puts you firmly in the grasp of the other. But most of us don't do one or the other, we compromise. Most of us say, "Well, I don't want to lose a lot of money, but then again, I don't want to miss all the opportunities, so I'm going to be in the middle." I'm going to have some defense because I do worry about losing money, but I'm also going to have some offense because I worry about missing opportunities.
So, the question is which one today? Should you balance them in your normal way today or should you be more worried about losing money than missing opportunity? Or should you be more worried about missing opportunity than losing money? And again, if you can get that right, uh you have an advantage. So, I I know you were wondering where I was going.
Um So, the question is where today? And for the last few years, because risky behavior came back in the credit markets, I have thought that caution was more important than aggressiveness. And Oaktree has followed a mantra, move forward but with caution. So, we have invested over this period. We have tried to be fully invested, and in general, we are, but with caution.
We're a cautious firm, that means even more cautious than usual. So, we're not going to cash. The decision to go to cash is a very difficult decision. It's very difficult to get it right, and it is a binary decision. You go to cash, you're wrong, you have a disaster, because the market goes up and you're not in it, and and pretty soon you don't have any clients.
So, we are fully invested, a little more cautious than the average bear, which means that if the market goes up, we lag a little bit, but at least we participate. Our increased caution prepares us for a declining market, and I think and thought and still think that it is the right thing for today. So, um you know, um I would sum up by saying that I would be afraid I'm a little bit afraid to be in this market.
Now, by the way, I say this market. There are lots of different markets. There's a stock market, there's a credit market. There's There's the US market, there's the Chinese market, there's the Hong Kong market, there's European market. There are so many markets and obviously no comment can apply to all of them.
But on balance, given the age of the economic recovery, the age of the bull market, the reliance of the world on a droid central bank management, the large number of uncertainties that exist in the geopolitical area, on balance, I would say I'm a little bit afraid to be in the market. But I'm almost as afraid to be out of it.
So I want to be in it expressing even more caution than usual. Right now, the biggest question investors are asking is simple. Should you go on offense or play defense? Because let's be honest, the world feels uncertain. War, rising commodity prices, volatility everywhere. And yet many stocks are suddenly back in buying range.
So what do you do? Do you own now or risk losing money if markets fall further or stay out and risk missing out one of the best opportunities in years? Because here's the uncomfortable truth. These prices may not stick around for long. This is where most investors go wrong. They think it's an all or nothing decision.
But smart investors does not work like that. The real game is balance. You don't need to go fully aggressive and you don't need to sit completely in cash either. You do both. You slowly start buying quality stocks while still holding some cash on the side. Why? Because if markets fall, your cash becomes a biggest weapon.
And if markets rise, you're already in the game. This way you are not trying to predict the market. You're preparing both outcomes. Think of it like this. You're not choosing between risk of losing money versus risk of missing out. You're managing both. So instead of asking, should I invest or not? Ask, how much should I invest right now and how much should I keep ready?
Because the investors who win are not the ones who guess the market perfectly. They are the ones who stay rational when everyone else is confused. So in times like this, don't go all offense. Don't go all defense. Play smart. Stay balanced. That's how real wealth is built.
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