저자: HowardMarks/영상내해설자 · 외국인
요약 보기
대중이 좋아하는 자산이 아니라 싫어하는 자산에 베팅할 때 큰 돈이 나며, 그 자산이 싸다는 것이 전제다. 역발상은 합의의 강도와 낙관/비관 수준을 점검하는 깊은 과정이어야 하고 단순 반대매매가 아니다. 역발상 투자에는 독립성·강인함이 필요하며, 파트너(Bruce Karsh)의 지지가 버티는 힘이 된다. 시장 과열 때 역발상이 더 쉽다고 본다. 2026년 AI·전쟁 공포로 기술주가 급락했을 때 Parag Parikh Flexi Cap 펀드가 IT주를 더 매수한 사례를 언급하며, 결과는 수개월~수년 뒤에 확인 가능하다고 한다.
다듬은 글
You don't usually make much money by betting on the thing that everybody else loves. The big money is made by betting on the things they hate, which as a result are cheap if you're right. Uh contrarianism merely means uh uh betting against the consensus. In every on every subject there's a consensus.
There's what most people believe is is the case. Um when the consensus is too strong and there's too much optimism that the consensus outcome will uh uh apply maybe the odds for betting on the improbable outcome are so high that it's a compelling bet. Um the consensus if you take that into the investment markets, the uh the knowledge consensus is already embodied in the price of every asset.
Maybe you can find times when you think the consensus is wrong and uh you can do better by betting against it. Um um usually because the payoff is so high for doing the thing that is considered unlikely. Now I want to stress that I don't think it's a good idea to routinely say, "Well, what does the consensus think?
Let's do the opposite." The process has to be much uh deeper than that. You have to say, "What does the consensus think? What do I think? What's wrong with the consensus thinking? Why do they think that way? What could make the error of their ways exposed? So, it's it's it's a very deep question, but uh you you don't usually make much money by betting on the thing that everybody else loves.
The big money is made by betting on the things they hate, which as a result are cheap if you're right. Does it take a certain amount of personality to be good at this? It does take a certain personality because number one, you have to be uh a contrarian person. You you have to be comfortable uh existing outside the mainstream.
And what type of people is that? I think analytical and and and relatively tough. Um because uh it's it's not pleasant. Uh you know, you have 10 people in the room, all 10 are buying a certain stock. Well, maybe that means it's expensive. Maybe it's more expensive than it should be. So, uh you you don't buy it or you sell short.
You have to be very strong to be able to live with that. Does it help to be a loner? You have to be a loner and I wrote a memo called Dare to Be Great Too in 2015, I think it was. And uh what I said is that if you wanted be an exceptional investor, number one, you have to be you have to dare to be different.
Your portfolio has to be different from other people [clears throat] or else you can't distinguish yourself. You have to be dare to be wrong uh because you have to take on these unpopular positions. And number three, you have to dare to look wrong because even if you're right that's probably not going to be clear for some time and in that period you're going to look wrong, out of step, be criticized, feel inadequate.
You have to be able to live with that. So, how come Howard Marks managed to be wrong for a long period of time and sit through it? First of all, I think it must be some quirk of my personality. Uh Were you a loner when you were young? I guess so. Yeah. And I I and I and I believe in the power of the brain.
Uh you see uh But number two, I have a partner named Bruce Karsh who gets less attention than I do. Uh popularly, he likes it that way. But uh he's been my partner since '87. And when we do these things which are cyclically difficult, that is like for example, we we were very steady buyers in the 15 weeks following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
650 million a week on average for 15 weeks. That's $10 billion. We support each other. And uh things that would be difficult individually become easier when you have somebody you respect who who supports you. I think that's a very good point. A lot of fantastic fund managers are you know, working in pairs.
Right. Um but is it easier to do this when you have more experience and have been proven right a few times? I think that's right. Uh Nikolai, you have to um I mean, on the one hand, you can reason out what you think is the right answer. But uh I think that it helps to as you say, have been proved right in the past and you gain a certain respect for your process.
Yeah. Um and uh and also the other thing is that these kinds of behaviors which we we've done successfully on balance have been done when the world went to one extreme and we were contrarian. Mhm. And a- after you do it a few times, you kind of it's kind of like muscle memory and you kind of develop a feeling, "Oh, yes.
Uh I think I said in my book on cycles you just say to yourself, 'Oh, yeah, this is one of those.'" Yeah. Do you think it's easier to be contrarian when markets are really frothy and bullish or when they are fearful? That's a great question. Um I think it's easier when the markets are frothy. Because But frothy is difficult to measure, right?
Well, it is, but and and uh you know, I I use a certain uh barometer. Nothing uh tangible, but I you know, I spend a lot of time trying what I call taking the temperature of the market. And get a sense for whether other people are operating out of extreme optimism or extreme pessimism. How do you do it?
What does the barometer look like? Uh I just look at what opinions are being expressed, how uniformly are they held, how strongly are they held, how self-satisfied are the people who are holding them. Uh you know, and you get into for example, a bubble like the the uh internet bubble uh of 2000. And you know, the people who are holding those opinions and making the most money are doing it for the silliest of reasons.
Their justifications just don't hold. And so, hopefully you can see through that and and get off the train uh before they ride it off the off the cliff. In 2026, everyone feared two things, war and AI. AI did not just boom, it shook the market. Tech stocks started falling as fear took over. While most investors were selling, one of the India's smartest fund, Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund, did the opposite.
They increased their bet on IT stocks during the panic. This is exactly what Howard Marks teaches. To beat the market, you have to go against it. To know whether Parag Parikh got it right, we need to wait for a few more months or years. So, here is the real question. Are you selling with the crowd or buying the opportunity?
Comments 0