저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 경기침체 가능성이 높고 주식시장은 추가 하락 여지가 있어 현금 흐름 대비와 저가 매수 준비가 필요하다. [경기 신호] 미국 GDP가 2022년 1·2분기 연속 마이너스를 기록했고, 주식시장은 약세장 국면이라고 진단했다. 제이미 다이먼(JP모건)은 6~9개월 내 침체 진입 가능성을 언급했고, 제프 베이조스는 경기 신호를 두고 대비하라는 취지의 발언을 했다. [다이먼의 근거] IPO 감소, 하이일드 채권 발행 감소, 브릿지론 증가를 기업 활동 위축의 신호로 꼽았다. 인플레이션이 높고 금리 인상 폭이 예상보다 크며 양적긴축 규모도 과거에 없던 수준이라 영향을 가늠하기 어렵다고 봤다. [연준 금리 전망] 2022년 9월 CPI는 8.2%로 평균 2~3%를 크게 웃돈다. 현재 연방기금금리 3~3.25%에서 CME 페드워치 기준으로 11월 75bp, 12월 50bp, 2023년 2월 50bp 인상이 예상되어 4.75~5%까지 오를 수 있다고 봤다. 모기지 금리는 연방기금금리에 약 3%p를 더한 수준이라 8~9%까지 오를 수 있으며, 이는 주택 구매자에게 큰 부담이라는 분석이다. [주식시장 전망] 다이먼은 주식시장이 추가로 약 20% 더 하락할 수 있다고 봤고, 영상은 S&P500이 연초 고점 4,800에서 2,400 수준까지 절반 가까이 빠질 가능성도 열어두었다. 2023년 하반기 이후 연준이 금리를 인하할 것으로 보았다. [밸류에이션] 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)는 2021년 3분기·4분기 250%에서 2022년 2분기 209%로 낮아졌으나, 버핏이 적정 가격으로 보는 100~120%를 여전히 웃돈다. 리먼 사태 때 80%대까지 떨어진 적이 있어, 100% 아래로 내려와야 매수 적기라는 견해다. [투자 전략] 하락장을 기회로 보고 장기(10년 이상) 관점에서 좋아하는 기업을 할인가에 매수할 것을 권했다. 다만 밸류에이션이 충분히 낮아질 때까지 기다리는 인내심도 필요하다고 조언했다. [조건·리스크] 경기침체는 인플레이션이 잡히지 않고 금리 인상이 계속될 때의 시나리오다. 인플레이션이 내려오면 I-bond 금리 등 예금 금리는 과거보다 낮아질 수 있다고 봤다. [출연자 전망] 개인 투자자 입장에서 금리 인상과 경기 둔화가 주식시장과 주택시장에 추가 하락 압력을 줄 것으로 보며, 시장 하락을 저가 매수 기회로 보는 장기 투자 관점을 취한다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends I'm Michelle Markey let me ask you a question do you feel like the United States is already in a recession let me know what you think in the comments because based on some measures the U.S may already be in a recession like how U.S gross domestic product or GDP has already had two consecutive quarters of decline in the first and second quarters this year and also with the stock market being well into bear Market territory it's kind of just felt like there's been a lot of economic gloom and doom so far and according to some Big Business Leaders like Jeff Bezos of Amazon and Jamie dimon of JPMorgan Chase they suggest that a recession could still be on the horizon so I'll reflect on what they've said and what I think is happening and if you also appreciate being financially prepared no matter what economic storm could be on the horizon please be sure to like And subscribe to my video and YouTube channel because it greatly helps with the YouTube algorithm and I really hope that what I'm sure sharing with you today will help you in your financial Journey so thanks recently it seems like America's Business Leaders are turning increasingly cautious because when Goldman sachs's CEO David Solomon said that there is a good chance of a recession Jeff Bezos reacted by tweeting yep the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches and this seems to Echo what Jamie Diamond was saying back in June when he believed that an economic hurricane is on the horizon and he said to brace yourselves and recently this October he also said that the U.S is likely to tip into a recession in six to nine months which means that the U.S could have an official recession maybe by April to July 2023 and this also follows similarly to what I've predicted in the past based on what other economists talked about like I talked about this in early 2021 about how 2023 seems right for a recession and while I haven't heard Jeff Bezos share more thoughts about an impending recession maybe one sign of how Amazon is battening down the hatches is revealed by how they're freezing corporate hiring and we'll have to see if more comes out of Amazon's activity and how they're preparing for what could be coming but Jamie Diamond has been way more vocal about some of the signs like how we still have really high inflation and interest rates are going up more than we expected and also we haven't seen quantitative tightening quite like this on the scale so we don't know what the effects of that will all be and we're also dealing with the ongoing effects of the continuing Russia Ukraine war and also this year unlike 2021 we've barely seen much initial public offerings or IPOs where startups are going public in the stock market and so that's a sign that a lot of business activity is pairing back and also so we're seeing less high yield debt or bonds being released so maybe that's also another sign that people are not as aggressively growing as they used to do when they had access to cheap debt and he also said that more Bridge loans are being hung which means that less short-term debt is being issued to secure permanent financing so among some of these signs from this well-respected Banker I think that this is something we should be listening to and heeding about what he's expecting because he's been really vocal throughout this year about bracing ourselves so I think that winter is more than coming and to shed some light on what Jamie's talking about when he says that interest rates are going up higher than they expected and also we haven't quite seen quantitative tightening on a scale like this before what he's talking about is how the Federal Reserve has to increase the FED funds rate in order to try to fight High inflation because we're dealing with some of the highest in inflation in 40 years where the Consumer Price Index or CPI inflation was at 8.2 percent in September which is way above the average two to three percent that we normally have and So based on that fact the Federal Reserve is hiking the FED funds rate aggressively and the FED funds rate dictates the interest rates that Banks lend to each other in overnight lending and the FED funds rate also dictates a bunch of other rates like mortgage rates or loans that people might get and so whatever the FED funds rate usually you'll see loans or mortgage rates at about three percent above that rate and right now we currently have a Fed funds rate of between three to three point two five percent so it's no wonder that mortgage rates are north of six percent so can you imagine the higher that the FED funds rate goes the more pain we'll see for people trying to get mortgages and trying to buy homes because that means their mortgage payment are going to be more expensive since they have to pay even more interest and so because people weren't expecting the Federal Reserve to really be as aggressive as they are with hiking interest rates that's causing the stock market and a bunch of other things to dampen in their activity so it also makes sense that the stock market has been generally declining after a little increase like a rally in the summer they didn't think that the Fed was being really serious about hiking interest rates so before a lot of economists were projecting that the FED funds rate might only go to around four percent but people are taking the FED a lot more seriously now and their commitment to fight inflation by aggressively hiking interest rates so much so that the CME groups fed watch tool is projecting for the feds next November meeting that they're going to increase rates from the current range of three to three point two five percent by another 75 basis points all the way up to 3.75 to 4 percent which is a huge jump and basically the previous limit that economists were expecting before but now that they are seeing the harsh reality of things they think that the FED is going to continue hiking interest rates by another 50 basis points at the next fed meeting in December that it will be by that time at 4.25 to 4.5 percent and also there's a little bit of a break but by February 2023's meeting the FED will also hike by another 50 basis points to 4.75 to 5 percent which can you imagine mortgage rates then going up as high as eight or nine percent like that's a lot so a lot of people could be priced out of the housing market just based on mortgage rates alone because it means that their mortgage payments and interest payments will balloon to way higher amounts as bad as they are now it's probably going to be way worse when the fed hikes to as high as a five percent fed funds rate but it could be good for those of us who like to save our money and then most likely hopefully our bank accounts will also give us interest north of four percent maybe as high as even five percent if we're so lucky but I doubt that our bond rates are going to be that much higher like since inflation is starting to come down I don't think the future series I Bond rates are going to be as good as they were currently as of October 2022 so also brace yourselves for that notice the theme Here of bracing ourselves for upcoming economic travails and turmoil but anyway also this fed watch tool is projecting that the FED will eventually have to bring down rates but they're not going to do that until maybe December of next year in 2023 and by that point in time maybe they'll only bring it down by 25 basis points to maybe the range of 4.5 up to 4.75 percent so as you can see a lot of people now believe that the FED is committed to Bringing Down inflation even if it means that the economy is going into a recession and that the stock market will go down even more because that's another thing that Jamie Diamond predicts is that the stock market could easily go down by another 20 percent at the time he said this the stock market was already down if we look at the S P 500 by about 27.5 percent so another 20 on top of that could be around 48 percent that the stock market could go down as far as or maybe around more than 50 percent so imagine the S P 500 getting cut in half from its all-time high of 4 800 in January this year down to maybe twenty four hundred so I think that that's way more possible than maybe a lot of people believe and I think we should prepare in case that becomes an economic reality for all of us to maybe deal with losing jobs or also our stock market portfolios also being really down but where there's a lot of Chaos in financial markets there could also be a lot of opportunity so I actually see this as a good thing for us to maybe buy stocks and so if you see it that way instead of focusing on how your portfolio could be in the red see it as a chance to buy all of your favorite company stocks on sale where maybe even though they're down now by 25 to 30 percent imagine that their stock prices could be down by as much as 50 or 60 percent and I think that if you believe in these companies for the long term like for at least 10 years that it will be an especially good buying opportunity if they're down by that much in the spring or summer of next year and as much as some of us might feel like eager beavers myself included and maybe wanting to buy more stocks whose market prices have come down a lot making their valuations more attractive than they had been we might want to curb our enthusiasm because there's one more sign I want to tell you about known as the Buffett indicator and it's based on the Wilshire 5000 total market cap over usgdp and this measure is a reflection of the overall Market's priceiness and it used to be super high like back in the third and fourth quarter of 2021 it had reached 250 percent of market value to GDP which was super expensive because according to Warren Buffett he believes that the Market's fully priced when this measure is at about 100 to 120 percent and it was more than double that amount back last year and it's come down starting in the first quarter where it went to 234 percent and then in the second quarter went to 209 so it's still double what Buffett considers a fully priced stock market and based on current market valuation.com the Buffett indicator on there suggests that the current amount is at about 150 percent as of October but it could go down even more so what this is suggesting is that the market is still really fairly priced and maybe if we expect to get even better deals we should wait until the market goes down to below a hundred percent on this Buffett indicator because that's when Buffett believes the market is more on sale and he definitely went ham and buying stocks during the great financial crisis the last time that this Buffett indicator went below 100 like it was around 80 percent so we still have halfway to go if we think about it to getting to that level again if you want to have this as a sort of ballpark rule of thumb it's not necessarily to say that you shouldn't buy stocks but maybe just mentally be prepared and in case the stock market goes down that low and So based on everything that I've told you what do you think do you think there's Merit to what Jamie dimon and Jeff Bezos are talking about or is there any Merit to some of the signs that I've talked about today let me know in the comments I would really love to hear from you and your journey to investing the best way you can no matter what happens in the stock market or in the economy until next time
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