저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 실적은 상회했으나 고밸류에이션과 변동성 때문에 주가가 급락. 발언자는 950달러 부근에서 숏을 못 잡은 점을 복기하고, 850~885 지지선 근처에서 반등을 노려 분할 롱 진입. 850 부근 투매 바닥 확인 후 852에 롱 진입, 1대1 이상 목표로 설정. 루시드 숏은 성공적이었으나 테슬라는 기회를 놓쳤다는 평가.
다듬은 글
absolutely and we're going to talk tesla today and like i could have talked a little bit about lucid lucid was a great short and sean had rivien and that was a great short as well but let's be honest tesla had earnings they blew out their numbers but we're going to the downside and look it's a volatile name it's a high valuation and that's one of those things you have to pay attention to so because i was looking at other ev names to the short side today i wasn't going to be in the tesla short and i think that's almost inexcusable as a momentum trader who doesn't mind going the other direction however if you're going to look for areas of support if you're ever going to be counter trend you've got to make sure you can define where your routes are going to be what levels you want to play off of so first things first when we sat down tesla was doing nothing in the pre-market but you did have that capitulation bottom on monday at 8 50.
so it's about the only thing you had to go off if you get that 850 level at the top and i can come back to why 950 should have been significant when you had the blowout in the afternoon and the powell top that 985 there was a 950 before that fed day so when i came into play today that should have been a bit of a signal however you know you come back you pre-market levels up at that high that 950 i talked about not shorting off of that because again looking over at lucid and other and more important names that we thought would be better shorts just a monstrous drop sometimes momentum matters now at least we were not looking for that long until we had either 850 or the secondary area here 880 to 885 where there had been some previous support that allows us to be very very patient and here's the key thing look at the velocity of the movement to the downside any time you get this and i've said it probably a million times in the morning show when you get that initial bounce off of a key price area and it gets close to that target even if it doesn't get to your price in this case i'm waiting 80 to 85.
when it bounces just shy of that that little relief pull back to v-wop the first time is the best trade and i know that deep down like i know the first time is the best trade but it did not quite get to my price i do try it the second time through it then slams right through my stop and i take the stop out the only thing i think that we did well is that we do not try to fight this and get back in it bounces it comes back in the money i didn't try to take it back in that 885 range i didn't try to go along again in front of 880 i just said hey look it bounced once i missed it it bounced i tried to take it twice it did not work and then from that point on you've got to be able to sit it out and be patient the level was 850 dollars it comes down here to about eight it just it gets so close to that 855 area it's like no it's not quite there that's not the trade i'm looking for it bounces around consolidation and it isn't until you know i can't like i can't make this up right but it isn't until just before we came back on air for the final two hours of the day for everybody um that we hit that almost 825 mark we go to 852 i should say i get long just in front of it by 250.
i go just over one to one for the scallop in case we continue the barcode of the downside and now i'm looking to get a bit of a retrace on tesla so sometimes it's about going over what you could do better one of those things was identifying that 950 level and being willing to go short now ultimately lucid was a good trade but tesla was maybe the bigger fish that could have been shorted as well the other thing is if you don't get the balance the first time sometimes it's okay to say hey i missed my shot now i have to wait for the second one and then only be in the trade at 8 50.
sometimes you've got to be willing to do that for risk management purposes maybe we'll make the money back on tesla here on that last trade if we break through vwop but that doesn't mean it still wasn't a mistake to either not leverage down on that bounce trade or be a little bit more aggressive on the first bounce we can always look to do better here and as someone who likes to short things missing out on that short obviously doesn't make me very happy but that's why we do these so we can learn and get better every single day you
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