저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 연말 랠리를 기대하며 S&P500은 4600선까지 상승 가능, 내년에는 최대 20% 상승도 가능하다는 낙관론. 시장 흐름: 9월 CPI는 큰 놀람 없이 무난했고, 임대료를 제외하면 물가 둔화가 이어지고 있다고 평가. 연말 랠리가 기대되지만 비주거 서비스 물가는 끈적하고 유가 재상승은 이중 악재. 지난 전망 회고: 2022년 10월 저점(S&P500)을 맞혔고 4600도 7월에 도달. 당시 4600 도달 후 연내 추가 상승은 없다고 봤고 실제로 대체로 횡보 흐름. 리스크: 에너지 가격 반등, 국채 금리가 4.5% 부근으로 오를 가능성이 시장 조정 요인. 4600 부근에서 머무를 것으로 봄. 내년 전망: 경제 견조, 인플레이션 완화, 연준 금리 인하 여지 속에서 금리 4~4.5% 수준은 시장이 감내 가능하다고 봄. 다만 2년물 금리 5% 부근 고착에 대한 우려 언급. 연준·트럼프 발언: 트럼프 전 대통령이 파월 연준 의장에게 금리 인하 압박을 가했다고 말하며, 재선 시 금리 인하를 지시하겠냐는 질문에 물가 수준에 따라 다르다고 답변. 야디니는 이를 합리적 입장으로 평가. 물가·금리 결론: 경제가 지속 성장하려면 인플레이션 하락이 필요하며 이는 진행 중. 파월 연준이 이를 의도하고 있고, 그 이후 금리 인하 가능성이 언급됨. 은행 규제 관련 트럼프 발언은 본 분석과 직접 관련 없음.
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my next guest though sticking with his call that stocks will end the year higher from current levels and could rise as much as 20 percent by the end of next year let's bring in Ed yard Denny of yard Denny research nice to see you Ed pleasure so look we we said at the outset here that the the bulls and bears seem to be in a battle you know we came into this month knowing that it's historically bad but yet we've emerged somewhat unscathed to this point right is that going to continue and if so why so I I was most worried about the CPI inflation rate whether it was going to surprise us to the upside it really didn't I mean it was sort of a mixed bag but a lot of the inflation that we still have is in rent inflation and I think that's what the market does looked at they said that you know excluding rent we're continuing to making progress in the CPI inflation rate so we got that through that reasonably well and um I think we're gonna probably see the market kind of hang in there through the end of this month into next month going for a year-end rally and a part of the problem though is non-housing Services remain really sticky and now oil prices are going up again too right so that's a double whammy that we can't take certainly you can't take if your prediction is as optimistic as it is well look that's Scott uh back in October uh I I predicted that uh we had made a low on October 12th in the S P 500 and I thought we could get the 4600 by the end of this year well we got there by July and when we got there at the end of July I said I think that's it for the year and so uh as you know at the beginning of last year the consensus was that the first half was going to be lousy and the second half would be pretty good I had the exact opposite view that the first half uh was where all the action was and that the second half would be kind of flatish and that's kind of the way it's turning out and so I still think we're you know we're not that far away from 4600 uh just uh a few days away uh the way the market trade sometimes but in the interim there are issues there's a a backup in Energy prices here I am concerned about the bond yield being sort of on the cusp of possibly moving up closer to four and a half percent uh these could all be setbacks that could hold the market back but I think all I would do is kind of hold back around 4600 and then next year I think as the economy continues to perform pretty well and inflation continues to moderate and the FED clearly has opt out in terms of the FED funds rate maybe they maybe they won't come down that much but I think the market can live with the bond yield of four four and a half percent we might be tested I mean the two years chilling out at you know five percent and you know I know there's not much expectation that the FED is going to do anything next week but most feel like November is still on the table and speaking of the FED I want your reaction uh Ed if I could the former president Donald Trump was weighing in on Federal Reserve on the Federal Reserve and interest rates in an exclusive interview airing this Sunday on Meet the Press with our colleague Kristen Welker of NBC take a listen Federal Reserve is obviously independent but I wonder Mr President if you are re-elected would you direct your Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates well you know that I put a lot of pressure on him it was outside pressure because nobody knows whether or not you can really do that but I did because I thought his interest rates were too high and he ultimately dropped his interest rates the same gentleman as you know and but it was a lot of pressure I mean I was very active on that right now interest rates are very high they're too high people can't buy homes they can't do anything I mean they can't borrow money the banks don't have the money the banks aren't lending the monies the banks by the way Chase Manhattan Bank uh Bank of America they discriminate against conservatives it's a disgrace and they shouldn't be allowed to and I'm going to do something about that but you take a look at Banks throughout the country and I think because of The Regulators but you take a look at Bank of America and Chase they discriminate against conservatives for that Mr President we'll give we'll give you plenty of it okay all right well let's stay on track with this question though so just to be very clear if you were re-elected would you direct your Fed chair to lower interest rates uh it depends it depends depends where inflation is but I would get inflation down because drill we must Mr President are you going to appoint a new Fed chair if you're re-elected well I guess he would have two years left or something like that so we'll see okay all right you know the word jaw boning I did a lot of jaw boning against him and he ultimately lowered interest so it's well you can be sure to watch more of that exclusive interview with former president Trump on Meet the Press with Kristen Welker that is this Sunday on NBC should also note the same invitation to sit down with Kristen has been extended to President Biden who has so far not accepted that but do not miss that and we wish Kristen well certainly she takes over that program so uh Ed yard Denny uh back to you you want to respond to some of that criticism I mean obviously president Trump took many shots which he alluded to at Jay pal during his presidency well that was back then let's look at what he said about the future I think what he said is that whether he jawbones uh Powell to lower interest rates you know first we have to see whether he's he's even going to be president but if he is and he uh talks about jaw voting uh Polly he made it very clear it'll depend on what inflation is doing which I think is a fairly reasonable position I mean clearly everybody agrees that in order for the economy to grow sustainably inflation has to come down I think it is coming down and I think Paul has made it clear that he intends to do that and he's made no promises once that's happened other than to suggest that then interest rates could come down
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