저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인플레이션 마지막 구간은 시장 기대보다 훨씬 어렵고, 연준은 고금리를 더 오래 유지할 가능성이 크다. 인플레이션 전망: 시장은 물가가 계속 둔화되어 9월이 금리인상 종료 시점이고 내년에 인하할 것이라고 보지만, 엘-에리언은 헤드라인 인플레이션이 훨씬 복잡할 것이라고 주장한다. 헤드라인 전망 근거: 일부 전망기관이 월간 헤드라인 전망치를 0.6~0.7%까지 상향했고, 근원 인플레이션은 덜 안정적일 것으로 본다. 연준 선택지: 연말에 3% 이상 인플레이션을 감내할지, 경기를 크게 짓누를지 선택해야 한다고 본다. 인플레이션 목표치: 2%는 임의적 수치이며, 2%를 12개월 후 달성할지 24개월 후 달성할지가 핵심이다. 2%를 넘어도 안정적이면 감내 가능하다는 견해이고, 목표치 자체가 점차 밀려날 가능성을 언급한다. 금리 경로: 현재 시장은 일시 정지(pause)로 보며, 한 차례 추가 인상 가능성도 거론된다. 내년 상반기에 인하가 없으면 주식시장이 불리하게 반응할 수 있으나, 시장은 고금리 장기화(higher for longer)를 받아들여야 한다고 본다. 통화정책 불확실성: 긴 시차(long and variable lags) 효과를 이미 봤는지, 금리 수준이 중요한지 변화율이 중요한지에 대한 논쟁이 크며, 시장은 이를 충분히 반영하지 않고 있다. 은행 규제: 다이먼의 자본규제 강화 반대에 동의한다. 3월·4월 사태는 감독 문제였고, 규제 강화보다 만기 불일치 해소를 강제해야 하며, 자본규제 강화는 비은행 부문으로 신용을 밀어내 감독 공백 위험이 있다고 본다. 리스크: 경기 침체를 감수한 과도한 긴축, 비은행 부문으로의 리스크 이전.
다듬은 글
and our next guest who's now at the table says the Last Mile in the fed's inflation fight could prove to be more complicated than the market expects join us right now is Muhammad alerian chief economic advisor at Alliance and president of Queens College Cambridge I want to talk about this idea that it's actually going to be harder because in many ways the market and I think so many actually fed heads and other people around the FED would say it's easier now that actually inflation has come down this last sort of piece of the puzzle there's a lot more flexibility in terms of when you raise when you when you lower what you do whereas before was actually the hard part so it has two different issues one is what do the inflation Dynamics look like and to the policy Dynamics the Assumption in the marketplace is that inflation will continue to go down right and that we're going to have coal well-behaved headline May pop up for a little bit but it will come down and importantly for policy that means the polls in September becomes the end of the hiking cycle and we cut weights next year right that's what the market thinks what I think is going to happen is headline is going to prove much more complicated already you've seen people push up their month-on-month projections of headline all the way up to 0.6.7 I think core inflation will be well less behaved and then the FED at the end of the year is going to have a choice do we live with three percent plus inflation or do we crush the economy well and then the question though that I'd ask is how quickly you think they need to get to two right I don't think they're changing too two I think is is hard but the question is whether two is in 12 months from now two was in 24 months from now I mean and whether they really are prepared to crush the economy I'm not so sure so I hope they don't crush the economy it wouldn't be a good thing to do I think we can live with inflation above two percent as long as it's stable don't forget two is completely arbitrary now I understand the FED not with wanting to talk about it but you have more and more economists willing to talk about it saying you know what I'm not sure if we set the inflation Target that it would be two what I think is going to end up happening Andrew is exactly what you said they're going to push two out more and more and more we're going to live with higher than two and at some point down the road we're going to make that transition but we're not going to get an announcement of this different inflation Target anytime soon and is your sense that they would I mean right now you think it's a pause I mean the market thinks it's a pause and then the question is are they going to lower rates later do you think there's a possibility of just one hike somewhere in between the market too if the and by the way would the market have a heart attack if that was the case the market shouldn't have a heart attack but what the market should recognize is we high for longer I was gonna say if if they don't lower rates at the beginning of next year the first half of next year does the market react poorly the stock market I think the market will will have to absorb this notion that we have for longer what we don't know and there's a massive debate going on about monetary policy is it the level or is it the rate of change have we seen most of the long and variable lags or have we not seen most of the long and variable relax so there are real questions about the design the conduct and the effectiveness of monetary policy that the marketplace right now is not absorbing the marketplace assumes that we're going to be the FED is going to be able to cut rates early next year I don't think that's going to happen Okay in the meantime you have other things that are taking place yesterday Jamie dimon was railing against the new capital requirements for banks saying that that's going to slow things down in a big way the amount of lending that Banks can and will do as a result and that will have an impact on the economy do you worry about that I do I think Jamie is absolutely right in saying that higher Capital requirements is not the answer to what happened in March and April March and April was a problem of supervision that the problem was identified but nothing was done to force these Banks to deal with the maturity mismatches to then react and increase Capital yet again is not the right policy response and there was a risk that that will will not just lower credit but push it into the non-bank segment and that segment is well less supervised and regulated
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