저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 챠마스 팔리하피티야는 게임스탑 콜옵션 매수 후 이익을 실현했으며, 리테일 투자자 집단의 영향력이 커졌다고 본다. 본인 포지션: 게임스탑 콜옵션 115계약을 매수했다고 트윗했고, 이날 아침 포지션을 청산해 원금과 수익을 합쳐 약 50만 달러를 소형 자영업 지원 기금에 기부하겠다고 밝혔다. 월스트리트베츠 평가: 포럼에는 세 종류의 글이 있다고 설명했다. 첫째, 기업에 대한 펀더멘털 분석이 상당 수준이며 일부는 헤지펀드 애널리스트보다 낫다고 평가했다. 둘째, 2008년 금융위기 이후 월가가 위험을 떠안고 리테일이 손실을 떠안았다는 불만이다. 셋째, 헤지펀드의 비공개 논의와 달리 공개 포럼에서 투자 의견을 나누는 것이다. 리테일 현상 전망: 월스트리트베츠 참여자가 약 270만 명이며 헤지펀드 못지않게 중요하고, 이 현상은 계속될 것이라고 주장했다. 금리 환경과 숏 포지션: 제로금리와 양적완화 상황에서는 전통적 헤지펀드 전략으로 돈을 벌기 어렵다고 봤다. 게임스탑의 공매도 잔고가 136%라는 점을 들어 월가 수학 게임이 무너졌다고 설명했다. 진행자 질의 및 반론: 진행자는 펀더멘털 분석이 실제로 이뤄지는지 의문을 제기했고, 팔리하피티야는 모든 참여자가 그렇다고 말한 것은 아니며 일부는 모멘텀 트레이더라고 답했다. 또 멜빈캐피털 같은 대형 헤지펀드의 포지션도 다른 펀드들이 따라 하기 때문에 손실이 커졌다고 설명했다. 리스크: 공매도 숏스퀴즈에 따른 급등락과 모멘텀 중심 거래의 불확실성이 언급되었으나 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
next guest he tweeted on tuesday that he'd gone long through call options chamath paulie hepatia is the ceo of social capital he joins us now on the phone chamath thank you for being here hi scott how are you i'm good thanks so you tweeted yesterday that you bought 115 calls in gamestop can you tell me what your position is as of this very moment yeah um can i can i uh tell you a little story before all of that or no why don't you tell me that first and then we'll go from there so this morning i woke up after spending all time all last night in wall street bets reading about all of this stuff i ended up closing out my position this morning and i wanted to announce that i'm taking all the profits that i made plus my original position so i'm going to take 500 000 and i'm going to donate to the bar stool fund for small businesses um but i really want to tell you beyond the 500 grand um donation or the the money that i invested which was you know not a huge amount in the grand scheme of that stock or the entire market what i learned because i think what i learned over the last couple of days is important for everybody um that's watching cnbc and that is i think that what you're seeing is um essentially a pushback against the establishment in a really important way you have a lot of people and i would encourage anybody who is dismissive of this thing to go into wall street bets and actually just read the forums and i think that you're going to see three kinds of posts the first kind of content are a lot of people doing some incredible fundamental diligence on companies trying to think about long-term value and in my opinion many of them are doing as good and frankly a better job than a lot of hedge fund analysts that i work with that's number one the second are a lot of people who believe that you know coming out of 2008 what happened was wall street took an enormous amount of risk and they left retail as the bag holder and a lot of these kids were in grade school in high school when that happened they lost their homes their parents lost their jobs and they've always wondered like why did those folks get bailed out for taking enormous amounts of risk and nobody helped and showed up to help my family and then the third thing is a realization that instead of having idea dinners or you know quiet whispered conversations amongst hedge funds in the hamptons these kids have the courage to do it transparently in a forum and i'm not saying all of it is perfect by any means but i think it takes an enormous amount of faith in the system to be that transparent to talk about things and then for each individual to make their own mind up and to do things whether it's to buy and to sell i think that what it proves is this retail phenomenon is here to stay there are 2.7 million people inside of wall street bets i think that they are as important as any hedge fund or collection of hedge funds and i think the most important thing is that in a world of zero interest rates and quantitative easing i don't know how you can run a typical hedge fund strategy and make money anymore because for example when you looked at gamestop you know a normal person would say how can you have 136 percent short interest how can you be short forty percent more shares that actually exist in the world to a normal person that doesn't make any sense but to a wall street mathematician that's the game that has been played for years and that game came undone well mean that may be a that may be somewhat of a of an extreme example let me just go through a couple of things you you said here um i have a hard time believing i mean you suggested that there's you know a good amount of fundamental research going on underneath the gamestop reddit situation do you truly believe that that there's actual fundamental research not to disparage in any way that the people who are actually making these trades but this seems to be momentum rather than a deep fundamental analysis scott there's momentum in traditional hedge funds and how they move stocks as well but it's really disparaging if the starting position is these guys can't do the same quality of research as an analyst in the fund that's just not true i didn't say that they all i didn't say they can't do that kind of research i'm questioning whether they're actually doing the research when it comes to things like gamestop and amc and some of these other things there's a distribution and obviously at one end there are fundamental analysts but on the other end there are momentum traders that follow trends but by the way the dirty little secret of wall street is that exists in hedge fund land the reason why this gamestop trade has caused so much pain is because at the top of the pecking order was melvin capital those guys were incredible stock pickers they are incredible fundamental modelers of companies okay gabe plotkin is one of the sort of giants of our era of my era right but at the end of the day what happens is irrespective of what he puts on his trades are mimicked and copied by umpteen other hedge funds that follow along
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