저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 연준의 과잉 유동성과 은행 부실로 달러 체제가 흔들리며, 극심한 인플레이션과 금 중심 통화 회귀가 올 가능성이 크다. 거시 진단: 금융위기는 이미 시작됐고 2008년보다 규모가 클 것이며, 연준이 확대하는 통화·재정 정책으로 달러의 기축통화 지위도 함께 무너질 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션 전망: 짐바브웨·바이마르 같은 초인플레이션 가능성은 확률 판단이 어렵지만 위험이 과거보다 크고, 최소 수년간 두 자릿수 수준의 높은 인플레이션이 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 은행 시스템: 대형 은행 포함 금융권 전체가 지급불능 상태에 가깝고, 정부 구제가 없으면 실패한다고 주장. 과도한 규제가 아니라 규제와 저금리가 리스크를 키웠다는 입장. 연준은 이미 사실상 양적완화에 복귀해 대차대조표가 약 4천억 달러 증가했다고 언급. 예금자 행동 권고: 은행 예금은 파산 또는 인플레이션 손실 중 하나로 어느 쪽이든 손해이므로 인출을 권고. 다만 매트리스 보관도 구매력 손실이므로 금으로 전환해야 한다고 주장. 금 기반 통화 전망: 금본위제가 역사상 대부분 지배적 통화체제였고 법정화폐 실험은 실패로 끝나 금으로 회귀할 것이라 봄. 민간 기업이 금을 토큰화해 블록체인에서 거래하는 방식으로 먼저 진행되며, 중국이 위안화를 금 태환으로 뒷받침하면 달러 패권 경쟁에서 유리해질 수 있다고 언급. 리스크 및 조건: 인플레이션 수준과 초인플레이션 여부는 정치적 결정에 따라 달라지며, 최악의 시나리오가 실현될 수 있으니 경계와 대비가 필요하다는 조건부 견해. 출연자 운용 현황: 본인이 운용하는 펀드 5개가 최근 수익률 상위 성과로 수상했으며, 가치주·배당주·미국 외 및 신흥국 비중 확대 흐름이 지속될 것이라 전망.
다듬은 글
well I've been investing for a long time I think my first investment was I got my bar mitzvah money back in the 70s mid 70s and I used it to buy some gold and then the price of gold went up and I was able to sell it to buy my first car so I made a little money there but I started my career in investing after I got out of college I went to UC Berkeley and kind of my first jobs out of school were related to commodity Futures options and I moved into a security stocks bonds you know got all the required finra licenses eventually started my own broker dealer and I built it up over the years eventually sold at Puerto Rico I attained ownership of an Ria that I had also established registered investment advisory that was actually based in California now it's here in Puerto Rico where I live but I you know I Rose to a bit of Fame for a lot of the forecasts I made both in writing and on numerous you know cable television programs back in the early 2000s or 2005 six seven I was regularly appearing on CNBC Fox News Fox Business Bloomberg CNN you know talking about the financial crisis that I saw coming and the bubble in the housing market and the problems in subprime and pretty much predicting everything that happened in 2008 with respect to the banks and real estate and the economy and all that so those accurate predictions it gave me some a bit of Fame I also authored four New York Times best-selling books and but after that was over I started a daily talk radio show did that for a few years now do a podcast which is available on shiftradio.com on my YouTube channel Peter Schiff but my main business is still Asset Management along the way though I did start a company called ship gold which sells gold and silver physical for delivery so I'm still involved there but again mainly the asset management of portfolios by asset management company manages a fam family of funds we have five mutual funds that are all doing extremely well they've been winning Awards recently for top performance I expect that to continue and actually improve as my thesis continues to play out in the the move from momentum into value you know from money losing companies to dividend paying companies from the US to foreign from developed to Emerging Markets I think these Trends have a long way to play out and so I think our outperformance is going to continue and accelerate and we also manage individual accounts separately managed accounts for or individuals through that registered investment advisor as well I think the amount of inflation that the Federal Reserve is going to unleash in order to try to counteract this financial crisis I mean people are still reluctant to call it a financial crisis that's exactly what it is except it's bigger in scale and it's going to be far more impactful than the 2008 crisis and it's probably going to result in even more and Rec plus monetary and fiscal policy and this time it's going to take the dollars Reserve status down with it I think that's going to really complicate things here in the U.S because that's going to send inflation much much higher and American Standards of living much lower well there's always a risk for every country that issues a fiat currency hyperinflation is always a risk the question is how high is the probability you know because not all risks end up becoming you know too fruition so we could avoid it but I think the risk is a lot higher now than it's ever been and in order to avoid that outcome it's going to require some very difficult political decisions and choices that need to be made to avert that outcome but I think even if we manage to avoid hyperinflation you know something like Zimbabwe or you know Weimar Republic Germany some of the really big examples where you know you need wheelbarrows for you know to buy a pack of gum or something like that it's a possibility it's hard to handicap how by a probability but I do think that we're going to have very high inflation for many years to come I mean elevated double-digit inflation and where the first digit may not be a what could be larger than a one right so it's going to be very substantial inflation even if it doesn't technically qualify as hyperinflation but that's not you know ruled out so you have to be vigilant and be prepared because that worst case scenario May in fact be the scenario that ends up playing out well first of all thanks to the fed's policies as well as government regulation and the moral hazards that it creates the entire banking system is completely insolvent including the two big default Banks all those Banks would fail if the government stepped out of the way but the reason our financial system is so vulnerable and so leveraged and insolvent is because of government and now you have politicians trying to claim that the problems for Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank were the result of a lack of Regulation or deregulation when in fact the opposite is true it was excessive regulation that is the reason that the banks got into this predicament in the first place and of course without the FED holding interest rates so low for so long they wouldn't have even been able to have loaded up their balance sheet with all this debt but all the banks have done this I mean think about the mortgage Market how many Americans over the last you know five or ten years have successfully refinanced their mortgages to have rates in the threes that is a huge gain for the borrower but that comes at an enormous loss for the lender who is now stuck with that low yielding paper in a much higher and Rising interest rate environment so all the banks are going to lose a fortune as a result of owning these mortgages and they will fail unless the governments bail them out by creating more inflation which is ultimately how the bailouts are paid for in fact the FED has already returned to quantitative easing whether they want to call it that or not but the balance sheet is up about 400 billion since this financial crisis began so on the one hand the government says don't worry about your bank account we're going to guarantee it but on the other hand and you now have to worry about the value of the money that's deposited in your bank because even though the bank might not fail and you won't lose your money when you go to spend your money you won't be able to buy very much because your money is going to lose its purchasing power just like there's going to be a run on the banks meaning people are trying to get their money out of the banks they're going to be running to put it into goals because no money is safe now in the bank because either your bank is going to fail and you will lose your money or your bank won't fail because the government bails it out and your money will lose its purchasing power so either way you should withdraw your money now but don't stick it under your mattress because it's going to lose purchasing power there too you've got to convert it to real money you've got to turn it into gold now if banks could offer you a high enough rate of interest to offset the inflation then that might be an incentive to leave the money in the bank but the banks can't do that because they can't afford it because they're broke because they've already locked up all their deposits in long-term low-yielding mortgages and treasuries so they can't pay you enough to offset the loss of inflation but they can't stop you from withdrawing your money the problem is they don't have the money because the money has been lost that's what happened to Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank so as more people rush to withdraw their money from Banks and use it to buy gold the Federal Reserve is going to have to print more money to enable those withdrawals which is going to create even more inflation which is going to accelerate the appeal of gold and cause even more people to deplete their bank accounts to buy gold I mean gold standard has been a monetary system that has dominated through most of recorded human history and I don't think that that's changed I think we've temporarily experimented with fiat currency the experiment is going to end in disaster and it will prompt a return to what works and that is gold and whether it's governments or the private sector that lead the way ultimately that's where we're going to go and we don't need governments to remonetize gold in fact gold was money in the private sector before it became money in the public sector you know it became money for the Kings because that was the money that everybody wanted that was if you wanted to pay your guards you needed to pay them in money that they could use to buy food and the farmer wanted gold and so that's what the Kings collected in taxes they collected gold so they could pay pay their soldiers right but I think what would happen now is private Enterprises private businesses whether it's a bank or any other institution doesn't need enough to be a financial institution but it has to be capable of holding custody of gold it can then digitize tokenize that goal put it on a blockchain or other you know form and allow individuals to own those tokens and then transact in them on the Internet uh instantaneously for a low cost they can price goods and services in grams of gold they can pay for and be paid in grams of gold and gold can circulate easily around the globe as money as a unit of account as a medium exchange and as a store of value and so I think we're headed in that direction as far as what the Chinese may do to the extent that they may decide that they want to back their currency by gold make it redeemable into gold I think that would be a very recruited move on their part if they're interested in having the dominant currency in the world that would be a way to secure that position
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