저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 전쟁 등 불확실한 환경에서는 특정 자산 예측보다 경제 4분면(성장·물가 상승/하락)에 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오로 자산을 지키는 것이 핵심이라는 주장. 미국 재정 상황: 미국은 부채와 재정적자가 커서 국채 발행이 필요하며, 재정 건전성을 위해서는 지출을 소득보다 적게 해야 하나 지출 삭감과 소득 증대 모두 어렵다고 진단. 정책 결정 문제: 정책 결정자들이 가용 자금을 보고 우선순위를 정하기보다 필요한 지출을 먼저 정하고 적자를 감수하며, 중앙은행은 화폐 발행으로 적자를 메울 수 있다고 설명. 국채와 인플레이션: 2% 이자 현금성 자산에 물가 5~6%가 겹치면 실질적으로 연 3%씩 손실이 발생하므로 실질 달러 기준으로 포트폴리오를 봐야 한다고 강조. 포트폴리오 전략: 성장률과 물가 방향이라는 두 가지 핵심 변수를 기준으로 4분면(성장 상승·하락, 물가 상승·하락)을 나누고, 각 분면에 리스크를 25%씩 배분하는 균형 포트폴리오를 제시. 1900년대까지 소급 검증했다고 주장. 자산별 대응: 성장 둔화·물가 하락기에는 채권, 물가 상승기에는 원자재·금·물가연동채, 성장 가속기(특히 물가 하락 동반)에는 주식 등이 유리하다고 설명. 안정성을 우선하고 이후 리스크를 확대하라는 조언. 사회·교육 문제: 코네티컷주 부유층과 빈곤층 간 교육 격차, 재정 기반 차이로 인한 공교육 불균형을 지적하고, 자선활동으로 저소득 학생에게 컴퓨터 6만 대를 지원한 사례 소개. 생애주기: 부의 격차는 역사적으로 확대와 갈등을 반복해 왔으며, 개인은 자신의 성향과 인생 주기(의존-독립-부양)를 이해하고 강하고 현명하며 적응력 있게 준비해야 한다고 조언. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I didn't anticipate that we were going to have the war with Russia but I did anticipate that we were likely headed in a war-like environment it's very much fell with as expected there so let's take the existing situation the United States has a lot of debt and it has deficits so it has to sell debt now if you say and others are holding it and if you say how do you get healthy you have to spend less than you earn to get to not borrow money and get financially strong that's difficult and particularly when you have a lot of debt because you have to take a portion of your income and you have to pay the debt and also you're living in spending more than you're earning so how do you Rectify that what cut spending I mean it's very difficult to cut spending or raise income that's not easy so cut spending what do you cut okay so we're living in a world now where policy makers don't think how much money do I I have to spend and what should I prioritize it on they think how much money do I need to spend without regard to how much they have and then they go spend it and then they have deficits That central banks can print it's just like the same as individuals they have the deficit but in their case they have the capacity to print the money to pay the deficit so it's not easy to fix the financial problem people have big differences in values and conditions and so it's very difficult to bring them together to deal with the problems and the same is true internationally if you're holding a debt instrument and a cash paying instrument and it gives you a two percent interest and you have a five or six percent inflation you lose money at three percent a year so you have to look at that in real dollars and you have to hold that portfolio in a way that is balanced to any kind of economic environment and then the way I do it I didn't have anything and then I start to acquire money and I start to think how many weeks do I have months do I have or years that I'm financially safe and what do I hold it in so and then you know once you got that taken care of you can go beyond it and and I wanted it in a very well balanced portfolio that type of portfolio that does equally well no matter what happens there are basically two big influences on markets the growth rate in the inflation rate like if you know that growth is going to be faster than expected and inflation is going to be higher than expected or that bonds are going to go down so the way I give that as an example so there are four quadrants that I think of rise and growth falling growth Rising inflation and falling inflation and I want to have a portfolio that will be 25 of my risk in each one of those so that I don't have any bias and so I picked the assets that are going to do well in each of those four quadrants and I hold them in a balanced way and I've tested that you know going back actually to 1900 and so on you'll actually increase your buying power and so that's the kind of thing that I think in the beginning and then when I go beyond that then I'll take more risk but I think that being safe particularly in this kind of an environment is important and I would take a perspective of how to do that that's like the one I'm just describing if the growth is less than expected and inflation's less than expected you would like to own bonds okay if inflation is higher than expected you would want to own assets such as Commodities and gold and inflation index bonds if growth is faster than expected particularly if inflation is less than expected udon owns the state of Connecticut is usually number one two or three in the richest state in country but 22 percent out of the last survey 22 percent of the high school students in Connecticut have either dropped out of high school or have absentee rates of greater than 25 percent in unfailing classes and there's a great deal of poverty and the breakup of the families and and the guidance so we operate philanthropically and I'll give you an example there was covet and the kids have to get educated and sixty thousand kids didn't have computers or connectivity and no government was going to do anything about it so you know we had to buy 60 000 computers to give it to kids in order for them to have education well this and there's hunger and there's poverty and there's drugs education is a state issue by the Constitution so I live in Greenwich Connecticut which is relatively it's a rich town and the public education gets about twenty four thousand dollars per student last number I looked it's probably higher than that now Road at Bridgeport Connecticut 10 minutes up the road they get fourteen thousand dollars of soup because there's no tax base and they need more money because you know the expenses of raising the kid are you also have to get them the computer you've got to get them the you know the food the clothes all of those things if you earn a lot of money you can't afford to take care of your kids education you can raise them in a better way if you don't earn a lot of money you don't have that privilege so all through history during those such times wealth gaps have increased some people make a lot of money I understand and it also increases the level of indebtedness and you make the turn of the century then you see big conflicts over wealth everyone has a different nature so you want to know what your nature is what your pull is going for see the whole thing gain perspective understand where you are in the life cycle there's a life cycle you know from birth to death and say it on average it lasts about 80 years and you know that at different parts in that cycle certain things are going to happen you're going to first third of it you're going to be dependent on others and you're learning second and third of it you're going to be independent of your parents and so on and you're going to be others will become dependent on you and you're working to be successful at the various ages you get married you have kids there's a life cycle that happens over and over again I mean the main thing you know is being strong smart capable and adaptable but that's why I put out um these you know videos and books to try to help people understand
Comments 0