저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 성장주와 가치주는 구분되지 않으며, 모든 투자는 기업가치 대비 가격을 판단하는 가치 결정이라는 주장. 성장과 가치의 구분: 버핏은 성장주·가치주 구분을 별개 범주로 보지 않는다고 설명. 성장 가능성과 그 성장에 좋은 경제성이 붙는지 여부는 가치 평가의 일부. 배당 없이 매년 100% 성장하는 기업도 결국 가치 판단 문제. 투자 방정식(새 떼 비유): 이솝의 '손안의 새 한 마리가 덤불 속 두 마리보다 낫다'를 인용하며, 투자는 (1) 덤불 속 새의 수, (2) 그 새를 언제 얻는지, (3) 금리를 비교하는 판단이라고 설명. 금리가 5%면 5년 뒤 새 두 마리는 연 약 14% 복리에 해당하지만, 금리가 20%면 손안의 새를 유지하는 편이 낫다고 설명. 기업가치 계산 예시: 현재 이익이 없고 500억 달러에 사는 경우 10% 수익률을 가정하면, 1년 후부터 지급 시 매년 550억 달러, 3년 후부터면 605억 달러를 영구 지급해야 정당화됨. 이를 위해서는 세전 약 800억 달러 수준의 이익이 필요하며 현실에서 찾기 어렵다고 지적. 질의 응답: 주주 스티브 예이츠가 연 60% 성장하면서 PER 4배인 기업(국가 RV, 캘리포니아 소재 레크리에이션 차량 판매사)을 질문. 버핏은 PER 4배 우량기업에도 관심이 있을 수 있다고 답변. 멍거는 필터를 이용해 투자 유니버스를 걸러내고, 저평가된 기업을 가치 실현 시까지 보유하는 방식의 능동적 투자를 강조. 리스크·조건: 투자 가치는 금리, 기대 현금흐름 시점, 이익 지속성에 민감. 성장 전망이 틀리면 가치 평가 전체가 무너질 수 있음. 언급 종목: 내셔널 RV(National RV, 가격 방향 발언 없음). 대상 자산 중 직접적 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
and that's all that's all investing is it's a value decision based on you know what it is worth how many birds are in that bush when you're going to get them and what interest rates are good morning mr buffett mr munger my name is steve yates i'm from chicago i'm berkshire shareholder and this is my sixth year coming to this meeting i'd like to thank you for all your time and advice through the years it's been great i'd also like to thank all those wonderful people who sold berkshire this year for giving us an opportunity to purchase more of the world's greatest company for dirt cheap prices we will convey your thanks i own another stock which sells for four times current trailing earnings every quarter we get a report earnings go up sales go up cash flow goes up the equity base expands they gain market share and the stock goes down the company has a sixty percent five-year annualized growth rate and sells at four times earnings i have two related questions first is this a growth stock or a value stock and could you please give us your definitions of these terms second the company sells recreational vehicles demographic trends in the recreation and leisure areas rvs cruise lines golf equipment etc seem to be quite good do you see any opportunities for berkshire here thanks well the question about growth and value is that we've we've addressed in past annual reports but in in there they are not two distinct uh categories of of business every business is worth the present if you knew what it was going to be able to discourage and cash between now and judgment day you could come to a precise figure as to what it is worth today now elements of that uh can be the ability to use additional capital at good rates and most growth companies companies that are characterized as growth companies has to have that as a characteristic but there is no distinction in our minds between growth and value every every business we look at as being a value proposition the the potential for growth and the likelihood of good economics being attached to that growth are are part of the equation uh in in in evaluation but they're all value they're all value decisions uh a company that pays no dividends growing 100 a year you know is losing money now that's that's a value decision you have to decide how much value you're going to get actually it's it's very simple at the first investment primer when would you guess it was written the first investment primer that i know of and it was pretty good advice was delivered in about 600 bc by esop and esop you'll remember said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush incidentally esop did not know it was 600 bc he was smart but he wasn't that smart now esop was onto something but he didn't finish it because there's a couple of other questions that go along with that but it is an investment equation a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush he forgot to say exactly when you were going to get the two in the from the bush and he forgot to say what interest rates were that you had to measure this against but if he'd given those two factors he would have defined investment for the next 2600 years because a bird in the hand is you know you will trade a bird in the hand which is investing you lay out cash today and then the question is as an investment decision you have to you have to evaluate how many birds are in the bush you may think there are two birds in the bush or three birds in the bush and you have to decide when they're going to come out and when you're going to acquire them now if interest rates are five percent and you're going to get two birds from the bush in five years we'll say versus one now uh two birds in the bush are much better than a bird in the hand now so you want to you want to trade your bird in the hand and say i'll take two birds in the bush because if you're going to get them in five years that's roughly 14 percent compounded annually and interest rates are only 5 but if interest rates were 20 you would decline to take two birds in the bush five years from now you would say that's not good enough because at twenty percent if i just keep this bird in my hand and compounded i'll have more birds than two birds in the bush in five years now what's all that got to do with growth well usually growth people associate with a lot more birds in the bush but you still have to decide when you're going to get them and you have to measure that against interest rates and you have to measure it against other bushes and other you know other equations and that's all that's all investing is it's a value decision based on you know what it is worth how many birds are in that bush when you're going to get them and what interest rates are now if you pay 500 billion dollars and when when we buy a stock we always think in terms of buying the whole enterprise because it enables us to to think as businessmen rather than as stock speculators so let's just take a a company that has marvelous prospects is paying you nothing now and you buy it at an evaluation of 500 billion now if you feel that 10 percent is the appropriate rate of return and you can pick your figure that means that if it pays you nothing this year but starts paying next year it has to be able to pay you 55 billion in perpetuity each year but if it's not going to pay until the third year then it has to pay you 60.5 billion in perpetuity in perpetuity to justify the present price every year that you wait to take a bird out of the bush means that you have to take out more birds it's that simple and i i question in my mind whether sometimes whether people who pay 500 billion dollars implicitly for a business by buying 10 shares of stock at some price are really thinking of the mathematical the mathematics implicit in what they are doing to deliver let's just assume that there's only going to be a one-year delay before the business starts paying out to you and you want to get a 10 return and you pay 500 billion that means 55 billion of cash that they have to be able to discourage to you year after year after year to do that they have to make perhaps 80 billion or close to a pre-tax now you might look around at the universe of businesses in this world and see how many are earning 80 billion pre-tax or 70 or 60 or 50 or 40 or 30 and you won't find any so it requires a rather extraordinary change in profitability to give you enough birds out of that particular bush to make it worthwhile to give up the one that you have in your hand second part of your question about whether we'd be willing to buy a wonderful business at four times earnings i think i could get even charlie interested in that um but let's hear it from charlie i'd like to know what that is he was hoping you would ask that the fellow that's got all his net worth in his stock and who has a captive audience uh tell us what it is you got to tell us we're begging you you want the name of the company we want the name of the company we're dying to get the name where do i get my pencil out it's called national rv and it's based in california and they sell recreational vehicles okay well you've got a crowd of people with who have birds in the hand and we will see what they do in terms of national rv charlie do you have anything further on growth and value etc watch him carefully folks well i agree that all intelligent investing is value investing you you have to acquire more than you really pay for and that's a value judgment but you can look for more than you're paying for in a lot of different ways you can use filters to sift the investment universe and if you stick with stocks that can't possibly be wonderful to just put away in your safe deposit box for forty years but are underpriced then you have to keep moving around all the time as they get closer to what you think the real value is you have to sell them and then find others and so it's a it's an active kind of investing the investing where you find a few great companies and just sit on your ass because you've correctly predicted the future that is what it's very nice to be good at the movie was g-rated even though you
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