저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 종목 선택은 패턴을 읽는 일이며, 애플은 신제품 발표 후 조정 시 매수 기회라고 봄. 애플: 아이폰12 발표 직후 혹평으로 주가가 밀렸으나, 과거 신제품 발표 후 조정은 매수 기회였다고 주장. 발표 전 주가 상승 후 하락하는 패턴이 반복된다며 보유 권고. 다만 완전히 새 포지션은 조정 시 매수 권고. 아마존: 프라임데이 전 주가가 300포인트 상승했으나 이는 이벤트를 아는 무지한 매수세에 따른 랠리로, 장 중 상승분을 대부분 반납해 '개미들의 함정 랠리'라고 평가. 이벤트 사전 공지 상태에서 매수하는 것은 투자가 아니라고 비판. 아마존 주식은 좋아한다고 언급. 은행주: 씨티그룹 실적 발표 후 은행주 하락. JP모건과 골드만삭스 두 종목만 보유(JP모건은 최고 품종, 골드만삭스는 투자은행으로 봄). 실적은 예상치를 상회했으나 비용비율과 리스크 관리 비용 우려로 하락. 은행주 하락 시 페이팔·스퀘어 콜옵션 대량 매수가 나타나는 패턴 언급. 패스틀리(Fastly): 시장이 버티면 로빈후드 세대 개인 투자자가 콜옵션으로 공매도 기관을 압박하는 패턴. 경쟁 심화 리스크(아카마이 등) 언급. 코로나 관련 백신 임상 중단 뉴스 시 페이톤, 도큐사인, 로쿠, 줌 등 재택 경제 관련주 매수 패턴 언급. 이런 뉴스는 실제 큰 의미는 없다고 평가. 결론적으로 무분별한 매수 패턴이 계속되는 시장에서 원칙을 지키고, 고점 매수·저점 매도식 투자 전략은 조언하기 어렵다고 경고.
다듬은 글
with be nice at Jim Kramer. Stock picking sometimes can be all about patterns. Clearly on a day like today where the Dow lost 158 points, S&P fell 63% the NASDAQ dipped only.1% and was up most of the day. Some of these patterns are so pronounced the hedge funds can actually automate the whole trading process to whip up an algorithm that buys all sorts of stocks.
Say if oil's running or interest rates are plummeting. Now, I've never been a huge fan of these algorithms, or frankly, their acolytes. There are plenty of patterns that are easily visible to the naked eye, and on most days, you can spot them before the machines do. When you see them, you have to pounce.
I'm going to have a teaching moment here and tell you how to do it. Let me give you some examples just from today's action. Let's start with Apple. Now, for yours, you could probably just go speak along with me. Uh I'm telling you to own it, don't trade it. Today was a per perfect example of what I'm talking about.
This is a fantastic company with incredible prospects in a cheap stock. There's no need to get cute. However, there are some days when you can buy Apple at a lower level. And if you don't already have a full position here, those are the days when you should pull the trigger. Days like today. See, Apple unveiled their new iPhone today.
And just as I predicted last night, the phone was panned by the pundits and the stock sold off. The experts described it and they use this is the most damning word in the English language. Incremental. And that makes it sound like nothing special. It's like, "Oh, it's incremental." Guess what? That's what they have said about nearly every new iPhone for years.
Yet, what happens when they're in the stores? People buy them hand over fist. I got the actual specs from Apple. I got to tell you, I haven't been this excited about a new model in ages. It's not just because the iPhone 12 has 5G, although that doesn't hurt. I love the screen, the colors, the usually been durability, and that is a great leap forward for anyone who's ever had to deal with a cracked screen.
I cracked mine in Mexico, then I got a splinter in my hand. It was like all bad. This thing's got a bunch of new features. They're doing very cool things with the camera. It's insanely fast. I feel like Stiglets when I have it. But to listen to the critics, oh, it's nothing special. Feels like some of these guys haven't liked anything Apple's put out since Steve Jobs died.
Me? Hey, I have the 11 and I've already put the word out to my wife that I want the 12 for the holidays. Ideally, the bigger one. I know what you're thinking already. I can see it on Twitter. Easy for you to say, Kramer. You can afford it. This is like the humongous criticism I got for wearing an Italian 180 count fiber suit to my garden last weekend when I picked a gourd up.
I mean, how could anyone hate a guy like that? Is Do you think I really garden in my suit? Believe it or not, I don't. Uh, and I'm not going to pay full price for the new iPhone either. I'm going to turn in the 11 to buy the 12. Regardless, even if you think I'm an outofouch coastal elite person who wouldn't even know the price of a milk carton, Apple's got a pattern.
The stock always runs up into the launch, then it comes back down. The analysts explain why they are so unimpressed. They're almost like that's their day to be able to grit their teeth and say, "Apple, I know better than you." Historically, this post-launch pullback has been a fabulous moment to buy Apple.
Pattern number two, Amazon Prime Day. You know, every year people get hyped for uh uh for Amazon. It's made up of shopping holiday. Every year it fails to inspire. Now, I actually had my team peruse the sites. We were surprised. There was like nothing we really wanted. I mean, I didn't see anything.
I mean, and like nothing. I was going to buy an electric toothbrush. Anyway, what happened? Well, the stock ran up 300 points going to this event. Now, it's propelled by what I regard as clueless buyers. Now, the stock was able to run at one point today, but then it collapsed and gave up nearly all the gains it had today.
In other words, it was a feudal suckers rally and it's probably not even done. Listen, Prime Day was scheduled months ago. You don't pay up for a stock betting on an event that everybody already knows about. And I say that as someone who really likes the stock of Amazon. You have to have at least some sort of edge before you pull the trigger.
You can't just look at a calendar and say, "Oh, let me buy some Amazon. Hit a Prime Day. Made a lot of money." People see how well they did it. No, that that's not investing. That's That's not how it works. Hey, you want simple? I've been telling you I hate the bank stocks, which is why we only own two of them for travel.
JP Morgan because it's the best of breed and Goldman Sachs because it's really an investment bank, not a bank. Investment banks are doing great. I'll find out tomorrow. I might have to eat crow. As soon as City Group reported this morning, the Starks started sliding and dragged down the JP Morgan. Neither bank actually reported bad numbers, but they both beat the estimates, but no one cares and City had a bad expense ratio.
Uh, Wall Street has no interest in owning the banks going into this coinduced small business apocalypse. And in City's case, a lot of money needed to handle risk controls. They have to they have to boost that. That's dead money. Risk controls does not produce more revenue. So, what's the pattern here?
Whenever the bank stocks go down, we immediately get a massive amount of option call buying in PayPal and Square, which are of course the bank light model that don't have actual credit risk. Not just call options. A lot of it is money is call options that are out of the money. Now, the market makers who who have to short the calls to them and then short the stock to protect themselves are getting hurt.
They're being overwhelmed by endless buying the likes of which they've never seen. And I mean never. In my time, there were only a couple of stocks where so many trading desks got caught short at the worst possible time. Yet, it happens every day now. The buyers won't quit and the shorts keep getting blasted to pieces because of these novel young buyers who just don't understand the way it's done and think they're being geniuses.
And maybe, hey, some of them are. Their willingness to pay up for PayPal and Square is shocking. Professionals hate moving stocks up with their own buying. That's bush league. Um the these they're the professionals are like Butch Cassie and Sundance kids that saying who are those guys? I think it's a youthful cohort that just doesn't care about discipline.
They like their call options to go up even if it takes themselves and their firepower to do so. There are some other names they operate on when the NASDAQ hangs hangs in there. For instance, we've had Fastly on the show before. Oh, it's good. It's good company. Helps the web run faster. When they they have Tik Tok as a client that runs really fast.
New York Times. It must be doing something right. But Fast is in a competitive space. Just ask Aami, which means it can lose customers. No matter. When the NASDAQ hangs in there like it did today, the young Robin Hood traders uh led by Davy Day Trade Portoy blitz into the call options of the stock that he calls fistly.
Fastly fistly. The institutions that were shorting the stock expected to have a weaker quarter just get run over day after day. Portoy moves fistly the way Russell Wilson moves the Seahawks. Here's another pattern. Today we got some bad news on the co front from both J&J and Eli Liy. They both had to pause the clinical trials.
J&J for its vaccine, Lily for any antibody therapy because of safety concerns. Neither of these seemed like an actual big deal to me. But whenever there's bad COVID news, in other words, that CO is winning over humans. Well, what happens? Well, the help these young people, they grab Pelaton, they buy Docusine, they buy Roku, and they buy Zoom video.
Those are the most obvious plays in stay-at-home economy and they say, "Let's buy some calls on them." Does any of this make sense? As I said last night, there's been a lot of silly buying lately. These patterns are so ingrained and getable, it's almost surprising that everyone hasn't already figured them out.
I know Royal Caribbean did today. Whoa, what about a Hawaiian punch? You know why? Here's the bottom line. Sometimes the pros miss out on patterns because it's just too stupid to believe, too obtuse. When you have buyers who are this thoughtless, you get obvious patterns where you have to forget your discipline and go back to a simpler time where people bought stocks way too high, ended up selling them lower at a and at what I regard as an investing strategy that can only be described as ill advising. .
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