저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 FOMC 금리인하가 확실하며 폭은 25~50bp 사이로 봄. 실업률 4.3%, 1분기 GDP 둔화 등으로 연준이 중립금리(2.8%)까지 더 빠르게 내려야 한다고 주장. 장기채는 연준보다 더 공격적인 인하를 반영 중이며, 금리 인하가 중소기업·배당주에 유리해 확산(broadening) 테마를 선호한다는 취지. 연준이 천천히 내리는 것은 불필요한 위험이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
so we're going to continue this conversation now and bring in Warton School professor of Finance Jeremy seagull Jeremy great to see you happy to see you I'm older than both of you and I always wear a neck tie so I guess it's the old generation I don't know yeah you're older and wiser and that's why we're we're looking forward to hearing your your perspectives on all this I mean bottom line on this PC data we definitely going to see a rate cut and is it almost certainly going to be 25 basis points well I think whether it's 25 or more really as you mentioned depends on uh what we see next Friday uh and and there there's even uh you know some more reports coming before that September 18th so you know it's definitely going to be a cut I think it's open between 25 and 50 I I think it was really interesting will for you're mentioning about what's going on in the Euro zones lower you know they have a different method of computing the housing and I've you know been on the FED for so long saying their housing measure is lagged so much that it keeps on feeding in even though uh you know we have rental prices that have stabilized uh they don't have that problem in Europe and that's one reason I think it's further down when when I actually put uh you know on the ground housing prices and I actually get uh 2% or even Below on year-over-year inflation I think the FED is there and you know you know I I think you know to stay at at 5.33 well they are going to go down but you know my feeling is is they should move much faster towards what they say is the neutral rate now in that June meeting they say it was 2.8% we're going to get a new read new Dot Plot uh in you know in two and a half weeks uh may go up to three but that's still a you know over 200 basis points lower than where it is today are you saying that Professor seagull because you think in fact the inflation numbers give it the room to do so so they may as well do so or is it because the econom is also weakening at a faster Pace than than they're perhaps appreciating well I am worried I mean uh you know certainly uh you know I got worried with the last report and it looked like those claims were heading way up uh I get worried when they go above 240 now they've stabilized down on 230 you know we shouldn't get too excited you know we saw that 3% print uh you know but that was April May June where you know just on the verge of September um uh I was a little Disturbed for instance the trade report yesterday didn't get a lot of uh you know press because it was you know over overtaken by everything else but um uh the fed the Atlanta fed and several others are going to come out with a report later today believe it or not I think this quarter might have a on handle on uh GDP so yeah now that's not recession and I'm not saying recession but it is a Slowdown um and uh I think that you know given that slowdown given that the unemployment rate uh rose 4.3% that is above the fed's long-term Target given we were within one half% on their own measure of their inflation Target uh my feeling is they should be closer to what they say uh is the neutral rate rather than tiptoe down you know well quarter point here and there we'll get there eventually why take that risk um you know be bolder they were 75 basis points on the way up for sure they were way too late but and I'm not saying they should panic but you know lower I think is the better although Jeremy I mean you got a lot of attention not that long ago when you were on our air talking for an emergency rate cut right everybody was like oh my God what you do seem to have backed off a bit from that what was it you were seeing then that you maybe aren't seeing now well what I did see was that labor market and the uh and as I said the claims report going considerably up and I said uhoh I saw the s's rule being uh triggered I saw a number of other rules being triggered and then I said to myself well you know why is the fet at 5.3 when they say you know it should be at 2.8 when it's long term um now I I will absolutely admit things calm down the economy looks good but you know let's let's put a f even if the GDP is at 2% which is you know let's say the long-term Target um that doesn't argue to stay at 5.3 when you're that close to Target some people are saying oh the economy is fine leave it where it is that's not the logic of the fed that's not what they say unless they really think the FED funds rate should be you know four and a half to five so they can tiptoe down uh don't hear that from anyone so my feeling is I'm not quite sure why being so close 80 to 100% there on unemployment over 100% there they are tiptoeing down so slowly on P fun so Professor tell us what th this all does for your view on the S&P 500 if we've got 100 basis points priced in by the end of the year we're probably not going to get more than that um W with that in mind do we also have to see the economy land softly if it worsens will rate Cuts do enough to prop up the S&P 500 or or do you kind of need a bit of both with where we are at the moment well as you know the the you know the the long bond is saying the FED is going to be more aggressive than a lot of people think and May and and probably even then the Dot Plot I mean if you look forward to the June of next year you you see quite a number of cuts so in some ways the bond market is is s of doing the fed's job for them bringing down that mortgage rate which is due to the 10year uh however we should remember that a lot of small firms as well as individuals you know they don't Finance at the 10 year if you're not buying a house they finance at the prime rate uh and what used to be called the the liar rate now it's called the sofa rate short firms Finance at that shortterm rate that's one reason why small firms have been hurt so much more than the large firms by the rise of interest rates is because they are much more short-term oriented that that lowering of rate I think would really help those those smaller firms and would help the dividend paying firms uh I think both I think the lowering of rates aggressively is really needed to turn that scenario around yeah so does that mean you want to stay away from sort of the mega cap part of the market so to speak and and kind of lean into this broadening theme we talk so often about well I mean I I would I would I I certainly think there's a reason for that and I like those relative valuations I just don't want the FED to go down too slow so if the data looks weak and they only go down 25 basis points then I get more worried again slow down to maybe 0 to 1% for two or three quarters I mean we got to be negative for recession actually even more a little bit than that we had two quarters actually a couple years ago we had negative we didn't call it because the unemployment rate didn't go up but now we have that unemployment rate I'm not calling a recession I'm just saying the FED if it goes down too slow is taking a risk that I don't think it has to take
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