저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 후 기대에 못 미쳐 주가가 횡보했지만, Cramer는 기업 자체의 가치는 유효하다고 보며 엔비디아를 '거래하지 말고 보유'하라고 주장. 2026년 EPS 추정 $5 기준 PER 24~36배 적용 시 적정가 $120~$180대로 제시하며 현 주가가 과대평가되진 않았다고 봄. 아울러 AMD, 애플, 아마존, 세일즈포스 등 다른 기술주를 상대적 대안으로 언급.
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you but to educate and teach you about how these crazy days work so call 18743 you see your Tweet me at J quor turns out Nvidia Nvidia is Mortal after all even though reported great quarter last night it wasn't able to deliver its key product fast enough to allow the company to do what it's done so many times before blow away the earnings yeah raises forecast to unfathomable levels Nvidia didn't Define today's trading because it failed to Dazzle in the way that so many money managers had come to expect didn't even see the matter to the average though D advancing 244 points s be basically flat NASDAQ dipping just 23% my response to all this all I can say is goodness gracious with this quarter's results the albatross of perfection is now gone the millstone shredded as much as I love Nvidia I'm thrilled that we can finally return to a market where there are many important stocks representing many important Trends instead of one stock that's captured the attention of Legions of investors many of whom have no idea what it does let alone where it fits into the technological food chain I stand my by view that you should own the stock of Nvidia and not trade it after all I've spent days warning you that the buy side expectations were too high and the stock had run way too much going to the quarter I told you the company needed to deliver gargant when beat and rais quarter in order to make it rally something that seemed very unlikely if not downright impossible but I never backed away from my belief in the value the ultimate value of the company what I'm saying is that in the end Nvidia isn't a concept it's not a cult it's not a miracle maker it's a company that designs really fast chips that allow for Rapid calculations that help companies speed up the solving of problems while improving productivity you can't ask inid Blackwell chip to Cur cancer can't do that it won't put them in on Mars it certainly can't bring about world piece yet when you look at how this stock was trading in recent weeks the market was basically asking CEO Jens W to do all these things and more instead right now it looks like it can expand customer gross margins important but not Ro shaking especially because the Enterprise is the client not you you won't even see it now that this quarters in the rearview mirror my hope is that those who wagered on the stock notice we were wagered as opposed to invested in the company we finally move on no more exact a box with AMD to place please we have to go back to work world where we try to Value inidia like any other company we have to put a reasonable price to earnings multiple PE multiple on it given its growth break Wall Street analysts are saying inidia can earn $5 per share in 2026 which I think is a reasonable time frame when you're evaluating a big growth stock we have to figure out what it should be worth based on that dollar number given the nid is scor much faster than the average company it deserves to trade at a premium to The Benchmark S&P 500 right you with me that currently sells for roughly 24 times this year's numbers since we're using the 202 six estimates from viia the results in a little more of a discount so let's say 24 time $5 of future earnings per share what does that give you $120 it's just a few bucks above where it's currently trading that's trading like the average stock now I could easily argue that Nidia deserves to trade a premium to the average stock the SB since it gross much faster than the average stock and it's a much better company so let's give it twice the pre the P twice the price to earnings multiple of the SB that would put it $240 again whoa It's not the average that seems pretty high though so let's putl the difference and say that deserves to trade it 36 times the 2026 estimate that takes us to 180 L more than $60 above wordss trading but realistic I'm going through this entire exercise of boredom because after this quarter I'm hoping Invidia becomes just another company maybe even a boring one ones that valued based on earnings rather than intangibles this is how we value a typical high quality grow stock which it is I just gave you the process behind where stock trades all stocks now all stocks including Nvidia it is a tedious process this valuing of a stock but in the end that's what Nvidia is it's a stock doesn't matter how Brian Chens Wang might be I call him Da Vinci but it doesn't matter he's the CEO of a public company not a magician or an alchemist or an artist now I'm thrilled that Nvidia brought a whole new set of enthusiastm into the stock market but I'm bummed that so many of these people are more gamblers than investors they only got in because the valuations uh went from 500 billion to 3 trillion in 18 months therefore they desperately needed that progression to continue they were unrealistic and I sense they now go and be unrealistic betting on games of sports or chance DraftKings here we come you know what as Thomas Payne mold they were always Sunshine soldiers they were always summer summer summer Patriots and soldiers I am disappointed I'm disappointed in these people because I want them to stay but I sense from the action at the end of the day they're gone summer soldiers I think this situation makes room for something great though I want to turn it into as we talked about we'll talk about later in the show lemonade let's turn the lemons and lemonade see we can focus now on all the terrific companies that were lost in the Nvidia shuffle for example how about AMD which also makes chips including chips for that while not quite as useful for artificial intelligence videos are still basically in the same league plus AMD makes ships for traditional Computing and servers that compete against a hobbled Intel AMD stock is actually very cheap on his 2026 earnings es versus stocks all the others the S&P oh and by the way what happened to Nvidia is actually good not bad for AMD they are a competitor for heaven's sakes how about a company like apple which is about to issue a new phone that will soon be offering the latest and artificial intelligence for the consumer the Stock's historically pricey but historically Apple didn't have a service Revenue stream that's sticky and predictable creates a whole new level of stable earnings plus Apple will be using chat gbt which has cost open Ai and Microsoft billions of dollars to build yet these guys are getting it for free because apple is such a huge highly valued installed base hey how about Amazon stock down 29% off its high right 29 Points % 29 Points even as we've just seen some surprisingly strong numbers from a series of major retailers Best Buy this very morning Walmart and Target the consumer is clearly doing fine as long as you give her good value and that's Amazon's been plus they've got the best beat on how to use AI to figure out your buying patterns and batch your orders for same day delivery something that only cause CCO and Walmart they're the only ones that can possibly beat them when it comes to price but not delivery maybe Walmart plus and delivery on a company like Salesforce how about this Salesforce they reported last night they know how to use a generative AI to create smart agents that can answer pedestrian questions very important because pedestrian questions are about 90% of what customer service reps need to handle age enforce the new AI initiative will for massive expansion of gross margins as Bots are a lot cheaper than people we'll learn more at the company's annual dream Force Festival in 3 weeks again not a barn burner but that's the point of artist fille intelligence AI doesn't burn barns it simply imitates us which can be pretty valuable if you're running a business that stock should have been up not down today because the use cases were so compelling I don't know what happened it was a mistake to me so I say goodbye to the Nvidia watch parties let's go back to the days when Jensen Wong was seen as a brilliant engineer with a black leather jacket and lots of Amazing Ideas not an otherworldly Miracle Worker Nvidia is not the hope for the future of manine it's a company that's very very good at what it does it's leading the AI Revolution which doesn't cure cancer or even the common cold but does help businesses do things quicker and for less money than ever thought possible bottom line Nvidia is not sexy not Legion not Superman just an excellent computer company led by a CEO who's one of the best in what he does just remember though even with Nvidia it's not personal it's strictly business let's go to Sam in Pennsylvania pleas Sam Jim listen after listening to Nike's fourth quarter earnings call I gotta tell you we got a bigger issue than just qual just the the issues I'm talking about with the consumer it's quality control you see I've been buying Nike my whole life I'm a runner I ran in college what I've been noticing is that the shorts are just falling apart and until they fix this issue I think it's going to act as a overhand stock so I need Nike to understand the quality of the products matter to us consumers wow okay so uh I was talking to Mary dill and a Foot Locker Foot Locker had a good quarter uh she still swears by Nike swears by the Jordan swears by all that but I get the same feedback you do which is why I've been emphasizing on on emphasizing Hokah uh if New Balance for a public company I've been emphasizing that uh I agree that there real big issues with Nike bigger than we can ever handle in this two-minute call uh but they have to be solv if that stock is going to go higher all right now that National Nvidia day is finally over they know nothing I think we all should remember that even with Nvidia it's not personal it's strictly business oh tonight crowd strike reported is first quarter since the Cyber glitch took down millions of computers worldwide and I'm seeing where things stand with the co then some people are having a hard time picturing the applications of gener of AI I'm lening all these important use cases and how to invest in them and GAP chairs were haed earlier in a Nutty thing and the company second quarter results were accidentally released early but the stock still finished the day higher I'm hearing what Wall Street liked in the report when I sit down with the company's top R and I'm liking that company's Stores stay
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