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For 2 weeks, one thing has been scaring this market, oil. Today it broke. Crude fell 2 and 1/2%. The inflation numbers came in cooler than anyone forecast, and the S&P closed at a record. Then why did the man who called 2008 spend today betting even harder against it? Start with the number that landed this morning, wholesale inflation.
Think of it as the price tag before the price tag, what companies pay each other before anything reaches your shelf. It came in at 4.7% for the year, down from 5 and 1/2. Month over month, flat, zero. Economists had penciled in a rise. That number reaches your wallet eventually, and right now it is pointing down.
The energy shock that has driven every scary headline this month is fading, and it is fading faster than the professionals expected. You can see exactly why in one number. West Texas Intermediate closed at $81.17, down 2 and 1/2%. Remember what we have watched all week, four straight sessions higher, up more than 12% from last week's low.
Every day another headline about the Strait of Hormuz. That streak is over. Brent fell, too. Which sets up the strangest part of today, because while the fear was draining out of the oil market, one very famous investor was doubling down on his. Welcome back to the Daily Edge. It is Thursday, August 13th.
Let's get into it. The S&P closed at 7,799, a record. The Nasdaq climbed 8/10. The Dow added a tenth. Small companies rose again, their third straight session in front. Two days ago I told you two sessions was noise, and three would be a rotation. Well, here we are. Think of it like a crowd leaving a stadium.
One person moving means nothing. When the whole section stands up three times in a row, they are going somewhere. But the sector board is where today gets interesting, because the winner is not who you would guess. Communication services led everything, up 2%. That is Alphabet, Meta, Netflix. Real estate followed up 1 and 1/2.
Energy? Dead flat on a day oil dropped 2 and 1/2%. Sit with that for a second. It is like a shop that put the sale sign up last week. When the discount finally arrives, nobody reacts because everybody already knew. A flat energy sector on a big oil drop means one thing. The market had priced it days ago and that is the theme of the whole day.
What surprised people and what did not? Which brings us back to Michael Burry. Yesterday he told you the calm was a warning and he rebuilt his bet against Palantir. Today he went further. He is now leaning harder into a bet against Nvidia, the most valuable company on the planet over a $500 billion financing deal.
His words for it? A Wall Street stunt with quote shades of Enron. Heavy words for the biggest company in the world. What is the deal he is actually angry about? Nvidia has teamed up with the giants of private capital, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, KKR. Together they plan to mobilize more than $500 billion to fund the data centers that buy Nvidia's chips.
Nvidia takes stakes in those ventures. It also offers guarantees on what the chips will be worth later. Read that again slowly because the shape of it matters more than the size. Picture a car dealer who cannot find enough buyers so he lends you the money for the car, then promises to buy it back at a set price in 3 years.
Then counts the sale in this quarter's numbers. Nothing there is illegal. The cars are real, the money moves, the paperwork is clean. But how much of that revenue is genuine demand and how much is the dealer selling to himself with extra steps? Burry's argument is that Nvidia is doing a version of this at enormous scale and that the risk ends up buried inside private credit which is a bit like sweeping dust under a rug you are not allowed to lift.
He calls the whole thing a sign of desperation. The most feared bear on Wall Street took his shot today. What did the market do about it? It went the other way, hard. Palantir, the stock he shorted yesterday, rose 4.7% today. Nvidia rose. Micron jumped 4%. Every single name he has warned about went up.
Now, that proves nothing. Burry was early on housing, too, by more than a year. Being early looks exactly like being wrong, the way a smoke alarm sounds identical whether there is a fire or you burn the toast. You only learn which one it was afterward, but it does tell you who is winning the argument today.
Speaking of arguments, let me show you something. Yesterday, I gave you three things to watch. All three answered. I asked whether the fear gauge could hold under 15. It closed at 14.65. I asked whether the home builders would recover once Washington clarified that tax proposal. D.R. Horton rose 2.8%.
Lennar, 2.8. And I asked whether small companies could make it three sessions in a row. They did. Three for three, two days running, not prediction. Just asking the right question and then actually checking. Now, the number I want you to keep, and today is the perfect day to explain it. You keep hearing two oil prices.
West Texas at 81, Brent at 87. Why two? West Texas is American oil, priced in Oklahoma. Brent is North Sea oil, priced for the world. The gap between them is the story. Think of it as the world's anxiety tax. The wider the spread, the more the planet is charging for the risk of getting oil onto a boat.
When it widens, something is wrong overseas. A war, a shipping lane, a blockade. When it narrows, the world has calmed down. Watch the gap, not the price. Screenshot that, and you will read energy headlines completely differently. One voice cut against the mood today, and she has a vote. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that a single rate hike would not be enough, arguing inflation is still eating workers' wages.
On a day when both inflation reports came in cool, that is a striking thing to say out loud. Remember, the Fed is not one opinion. Picture a dozen people in a car with one steering wheel, all shouting different directions. Today, the loudest voice was the most worried one, and she has a hand on the wheel.
Quick favor. If this is the version of market news you have been looking for, subscribe and ring the bell. It genuinely keeps this going. What is coming? Next Wednesday and Thursday, Target and Walmart report earnings with Alibaba right behind them. Those two retailers are the closest thing we get to a national receipt.
They tell you whether all this cooling inflation is actually reaching the shelf you shop at or only the spreadsheets. And keep one date in mind. This month's oil moves land in the September inflation report, not the ones we just read. Three things I am watching. Setups, not recommendations. First, oil at 81.
It broke a four-day run today. Watch whether that becomes a trend or a one-day dip on a quiet headline. Second, the gap between West Texas and Brent, the one I just showed you. Watch it narrow if the Iran story cools. Third, Nvidia. Burry is short it now, loudly. Watch whether the stock cares. Setups are not recommendations.
This is what the data shows. The decision is yours. One number from today, zero. Wholesale prices rose exactly that much last month. Not a small rise, none. Imagine your grocery bill landing at exactly the same total as the month before, to the penny. That is what happened upstream, before any of it reaches you.
The inflation scare that has run this entire month just went flat, on the same day the market hit a record. So, who was right? Today, the market said the fear is fading. Oil fell, inflation cooled, and stocks closed at an all-time high. Burry says the thing holding it up is built like a house where the buyer, the lender, and the appraiser are the same person, and he put more money behind that view.
Both can be true for a while. That is the uncomfortable part. A market can be expensive and still go up, and the bear can be correct eventually and broke immediately. Quick note, this is journalism, not investment advice. I am not an advisor, and I hold no position in anything I mentioned. Now, I want your take.
The most famous bear in the world is short Palantir and Nvidia. Both went up today. So, is he early like he was on housing, or is he just wrong this time? One sentence below. I will read every comment. See you tomorrow after the close. And that's your edge for today. If it helped, a like and a subscribe means a lot, and the bell keeps you first in line. This is data, not advice. The call is yours. See you at the next brief.
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