저자: PapodeBolsa채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏·하워드 막스·다모다란 등 대가들의 2021년 말 포트폴리오 변화를 소개하며, 대가들의 매수 종목을 그대로 따라 하기보다 전략과 리스크를 이해해야 한다는 취지의 영상이다. 버크셔 해서웨이(버핏): 상위 종목은 애플, 아메리칸익스프레스, 코카콜라, 버라이즌 등으로 큰 변화는 없고 셰브런 비중이 소폭 늘었다. 약 44개 종목 보유. 버크셔의 트위터(Twitter) 관련 투자 논란: 2021년 10월부터 매수가 시작되어 11월에 확대되었고, 마이크로소프트의 인수 발표 이후 내부자 거래 의혹이 제기되었다는 내용을 다룬다. 진행자는 확인이 어렵다고 보며, 한국 CVM의 내부자 거래 형사 유죄 판결이 거의 없다는 통계도 언급한다. 하워드 막스: 약 224개 종목 보유. 브라질 자산인 베일(Vale) 비중을 약 1.53%로 늘렸고, 아주항공(Azul)과 XP도 신규 편입·확대했다고 설명한다. 기술주 전망: 미국 금리 인상 우려로 2021년 12월 이후 기술 섹터가 하락했으며, 성장주에서 가치주로의 이동이 나타났다고 본다. 다모다란은 구글, 페이스북(메타), 넷플릭스 등 기술주 중 관심 종목을 제시하며 현 주가 기준 최대 50% 상승 여력을 본다고 언급했다. 대가 매수 상위 종목: 구글, 메타, 마이크로소프트, 아마존, 비자, 웰스파고, 버크셔해서웨이, 마스터카드 등이며, 성장주와 가치(금융)주의 혼합으로 요약된다. 리스크: 금리 인상으로 기술주 추가 하락 가능성, 대가의 전략과 개인 전략의 차이, 내부자 거래 논란 등을 유의해야 한다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 미국 금리 인상 상당 부분은 이미 가격에 반영되었다고 보며, 한국 증시도 같은 흐름이라고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Hello, in today's video, Sunday, I want to show you where the main gurus, like a lightning bolt and even Damodaran, the Pope of value, are already putting their money into this. This is because this week an updated report came out with the main exposures that these big investors have through their companies and investment funds.
Of course, I need to start by making a good assessment, right? Just because these big gurus are investing doesn't mean we simply have to bet against them. This is because they have very different assets, often different strategies, and also different risks that we can run. Let's take, for example, here in Brazil, Luis Mariz himself, and he has already explained that he can take this risk that is within his strategy.
It's important that we know how to differentiate all this for our portfolio because otherwise, many people simply follow in the footsteps of these guys, seeing money because it doesn't have to be ecological to withstand the ups and downs that some types of stocks can bring to our portfolio, especially in the short term.
So, make a careful assessment. Of course, even so, it's out of curiosity, even to try to understand a little bit of what these great gurus are seeing. We always have something to learn from those who know more than we do. I want to bring you this information from their portfolios, but I reinforce this point I made, right folks?
Don't just say " you bought it, you bought it" because your strategy might be very different from theirs, okay? But that's it, let's start playing. I ask you to subscribe to the channel, leave a like, and follow me until the end of the video. And if there's any stock you see in their portfolio that you invest in, tell me in the comments and why you're investing in those companies, because these debates in the comments are always very important; you can learn a lot too, okay?
Well, folks, I want to start with the portfolio that ended up causing controversy, that Windows 7 portfolio through Berkshire Hathaway, right? Because here I want to start by showing you the top 10 stocks in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio that have the greatest weight. So, as you can see, not much has changed, right?
We can see that Apple continues in first place, and in second place we... He has Copa América, American Express, Coca-Cola, Verizon, and so on. So we see that these positions generate familiar stocks from recent years, at least, which haven't changed much. He just made some slightly larger purchases now in Chevron.
He increased Chevron's participation in his portfolio. That's basically how his portfolio looks, right? The top 10 positions, of course. It's worth noting that within Berkshire's portfolio, they have approximately 44 stocks. This is considering the last business day of 2021, which closed on December 31st, right?
It was n't the last day, but this is the portfolio that was declared and updated until December 31st, 2021. Now, what caught attention and generated a little controversy within this portfolio—remember that there are technology companies, and also a lot of financial sector stocks, and so on. We know he likes these sectors as a whole—but what caught attention is this other little part of the portfolio, as expected.
Yes, he announced last year that he was putting... "Pezinho and Nubank ended up doing their IP, or rather, we can see, right, a portfolio of over a billion reais in Nubank, and what we can also see, and this is what ended up generating a bit of controversy, was this position in X Video, right? They ended up buying that, people didn't have it in their portfolio, angels, they started these purchases, actually, I'm with them from the bus, but I understand that I'm talking about Berkshire, and that there are other people, right, below a bankroll of three, there are other people, large teams there to make these decisions, and so much so that I think these decisions came from a younger group that has much more experience in these sectors, in these business models, but I don't know, yesterday they started putting Pezinho here, Video, in October, they increased their positions in November, and then what happened was precisely the announcement, right, that Microsoft would be buying this Video, although this negotiation should only be finalized next year, and that's when the speculation started, everyone in the North American market, as well as here in Brazil, on Twitter, everyone was saying, 'Wow, could this not have been a case of insider trading?'" The guy I mentioned is very friendly with Bill Gates.
And then, I don't know, one conversation led to another. You know, they might have exchanged ideas and then decided to get involved in this venture even before Microsoft announced the purchase, right? And what is this "private information" when someone has privileged information that hasn't yet been disclosed to the market and that they can use?
Well, they can't, but they end up using this information to make money in the financial market, right? And how did Berkshire do this? Of course, it's very difficult for us to know if that's actually what happened. Especially because Uber's strategy isn't simply to buy some stocks and, I don't know, profit in the very short term, so probably yes, they are looking at this venture, right?
It's a company that, by the way, you know I've been investing in, I think at the beginning of last year, the end of the year before, I made a video here on the channel showing you how I got involved in the stocks, but I think they are seeing that these technology companies are making sense at this moment, especially understanding the future demand, they may have made a lot of money in the short term when...
I saw that Microsoft ad and all, but I think it's obvious that's not the focus. They must be seeing synergy in this business, thinking ahead, and so on. If it was a side lock, etc., all of that would warrant some investigation. But as I told you, it's very, very, very difficult to identify when we bring this up to 20 years ago.
The CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) hasn't managed just one conviction in the criminal sphere when we talk about this issue of insider trading. That's because from 2008 to 2018, the CVM opened more than 54 cases against 158 people who allegedly used this insider information, and of those 158 people, only 66 received administrative convictions, which often involve fines or being barred from operating in the market for a certain period, losing licenses or certifications, things like that.
So it's very difficult for that to happen, so much so that they've made some changes in recent years to try to make it a little tougher, let's say, for those who commit these operations to make money with information. To clarify, the point is this: we're in the financial market, not in the world of Care Bears, so we need to be aware that things can happen not only here on our stock exchange.
For example, one of the biggest fines that ever happened, in these "Inside It Rain" cases, was precisely with the Batista team in the OH GX case. They had to pay over 536 million reais in fines. This also happens in other markets. I 'm not saying it's just the Batista case, but there have been several other cases that have been investigated, that have resulted in convictions, and that have resulted in various fines.
There are even comments on Netflix documentaries about some big players who went short on various other companies. And a lot of people were saying that this involved insider information, that they were trying to manipulate the market. So this kind of thing can happen, and it's important that we know this and always structure our portfolio accordingly, regardless of these things that can end up happening.
In any case, these are the main positions we have, and to prove what I see here, yes, he can more or less do the same thing he did. He's been doing this for the past few years, he just added some new positions, also thinking about this technology issue, but we'll continue to see a lot of strong stock in his portfolio.
We can also see Coca-Cola and so on. Okay, folks, moving on from the overall picture, Howard Marks, who 's the guy who always talks about market cycles and such, and what we can see in his portfolio, right? We can see positions that are quite different from Overbooking's. So we can see that they are even different strategies.
Howard Marks' portfolio currently has 224 stocks, at least until December 31, 2021. And the main positions we can see here... let me explain, and we'll talk about energy companies. We have Starbucks, which is also an energy company, if I'm not mistaken. Then there's Hertz, which he ended up buying, which wasn't in the portfolio before.
So we can see his main positions. He bought some new things and increased his positions in others and decreased them in others. Now, what caught my attention in Howard Marks' portfolio when I first looked at it was... He looked at our financial market here in Brazil, and in fact, he already had positions in Vale and Itaú, for example.
However, as you can see in this image, he ended up increasing his position in Vale. So Vale has approximately 1.53 percent in his portfolio, and that's about 21 percent. But it doesn't stop there because I think another company, and this one he also ended up increasing his exposure to, is Azul. I already told you, I don't invest in airlines, but these large groups, within their strategy, must know what they 're doing, so they ended up buying Azul.
Adding a little bit will be a small thing, right? As you can see, practically half a percent. Another thing he ended up buying, and what also caught my attention was XP shares, which ended up with a 0.07 percent stake. But it was another stock that ended up entering the portfolio. In fact, when you look at the entire report, I'll even leave the link to this site where you can see the portfolios of several gurus.
I came here to Café do Hobby, but he bought a lot of things. It's new because it grew quite a bit, you know, we're going to go through them one by one because of that. Now, what I noticed is that when I look at Brazil, it behaved a lot like foreigners usually do, wanting to stay within those basic companies, like Petrobras, Vale, and banks, right?
In its case, Itaú bought a little bit of XP, and so on. And when we look at Windows' portfolio, we see that it's really connected to our more modern companies, right? In these recent acquisitions they've made, and it continues, perhaps looking at S&P technology, perhaps thinking about this metaverse issue, anyway, several issues that are being seen here technologically are being much more demanded, right?
And what happens, right? You must be thinking, "Wow, but the technology sector hasn't gone up much in a year, now it's buying now, and so on." Obviously, as you can see in this graph here, the technology sector that I'm consulting, the S&P 500, information technology, but what happens is that it shows that we had, in a year, practically more than thirteen percent of growth, but now, right?
I think that since December, there's also been a significant drop in the tech sector, primarily due to an imminent rise in US interest rates. These tech companies are the ones that suffer the most in the market, at least in the short term, because the risk premium becomes more attractive when we talk about fixed-income securities.
Many investors end up leaving these growth companies, which are often these tech companies, and migrating to value companies, like many energy and banking companies, which we've seen are even in both portfolios, right? Buffett's portfolio is great, but what happened was that we saw these recent drops, and then there was the "Pope of Value," right?
The one from Mudamou, who wrote on his blog about tech companies he found interesting at current prices. And there are several, like Google, Facebook, Netflix, etc., but there were two in particular that he said were very interesting: Soul Smile and Facebook, which is now Metacritic. He sees, for example, Facebook at current prices as having growth potential of at least 50 percent in the coming periods, so he said he was going to start including these...
Companies in the portfolio, of course, understanding that there's always the risk of further declines, but at the prices they are now, compared to what these large technology companies were trading at a few years ago, he's finding this relatively interesting. And I think this view from the three major investors—and of course there are several others on that list in the link I brought for you—I think all of this can be summarized in a certain way by the main stocks that were bought not only by them but also by other large investments and other large investors, right?
Actually, by other large funds and other large investors, we can see the top 10 stocks that were most bought in 2001: Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Visa, Wells Fargo. We start looking at the financial sector as well: Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard. So what we're seeing is a mix of growth companies that have already appeared quite a bit but can still continue to grow significantly, with companies that are also just a little more value companies.
That's where we start looking at price and the financial sector as well. I think all investors end up diversifying within these strategies. One more thing... We're starting to see that they 're increasingly invested in these companies and may be taking on a slightly higher risk. Of course, especially in the short term, but they still have them in their portfolios, right?
Anyway, I just wanted to bring up these main exposures from these major investors, what they've done from last year to this year. There's a relevant point, I think I did n't mention, about that hamburger controversy, where he even had to speak out. He had to write a letter to the newspapers. They ended up issuing a statement saying that it wasn't a case of leaving Freire and that it's part of the company's strategy to acquire assets with these characteristics, like Maxivision, and that it wasn't that.
But as I told you, it's very difficult to know all this. You can even leave your opinion on this in the comments. But basically, we wanted to bring up this information that was published this week about his portfolio so we can understand a little bit what these people are seeing in the market. But as I told you, don't just copy and paste, it's always interesting to understand the rationale behind all this and what risks they face.
They're looking at the market and how they're diversifying their portfolios to try and weather possible turbulence. Of course, I think part of this interest rate hike in the US market is already being priced in, just as I think this is already happening in our Brazilian stock market. Okay, well folks, that's it.
I hope you enjoyed this content. If you made it to the end of the video, don't leave a comment, do it now! And today I'll do it in the next video.
Comments 0