저자: ChristopherUhl · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 워런 버핏 연설을 인용해 시장은 비합리적으로 오래 과대평가될 수 있으니 군중 심리에 휘둘리지 말고 객관성을 유지하라는 교육 영상이며, 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없다. 영상 주제: 주식시장 과열과 장기 과대평가 지속 가능성 버핏 연설 인용: 사람들은 강세장에서 흥분하고 백미러를 보며 투자하며, 최근 돈을 벌었다는 이유로 무모하게 가격을 밀어 올린다. 버핏 연설 인용: 1964년 다우 864에서 1981년 865로 17년간 거의 제자리였던 사례처럼 비합리적 상태는 길게 지속될 수 있다. 버핏 연설 인용: 2% 금리 환경에서 PER 3배 수준의 보험사 주식(Kansas City Life) 사례로 가치투자 기회를 설명했다. 출연자(진행자) 주장: 버핏처럼 생각하려면 지능보다 기질과 심리가 필요하며, 하락 중인 자산은 바닥에서 반등을 확인한 뒤 진입하는 것이 위험 대비 수익이 좋다는 취지다. 출연자 주장: 인터넷 기업 등 수익 전망이 없는 기업의 버블은 결국 끝나며, 사업 가치(주당 가치 대비 미래 이익)로 기업을 평가해 보라고 권한다. 종목/지수 언급: 특정 자산(삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인, S&P500, 나스닥, 코스피 등)에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 리스크/조건: 시장 과열 시 '남들이 돈 버니까' 식의 추종 매매는 위험하며, 연설 내용 자체는 교육 목적이다. 홍보 내용: 영상 중후반부에 aistotradingsystem.com 유료 트레이딩 시스템과 OVTLYR 무료 파일럿 프로그램을 홍보한다.
다듬은 글
You'll become very rich and you won't have to be very intelligent. I mean, I mentioned this in another video about Warren, that he could tell you all the rules, but you don't have the necessary psychology to succeed like him, because you can't think like Warren. You can try, but only when you grasp the concept of "I'm going to buy and keep this forever".
Not that I'm going to buy and hold, but when it drops from 100 to five, then I'll finally sell. You have to leave. So, if it goes from 100 to five, you have to exit around 98. This is the How to Trade Stock Options podcast, presented by 10-minute stocktrader.com, where we cover finance, stocks, options, entrepreneurship, education, and money.
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Hello, traders. Welcome back to today's podcast, How to Trade Stocks, Options. Today we have the man himself back on the phone. Well, not really. We're making a commentary video, which makes it legitimate use on YouTube, so we can do it. But today we're talking about Warren Buffett. We've had him on the show a couple of times already.
I don't think I'll ever actually have him on the show in person. But we can definitely talk about the speeches he has given in this one. His name is Warren Buffett. How long can stocks remain overvalued? Well, you know, when markets reach all-time highs, there are many pessimists who say that stocks must go down, must go down, must go down, but in reality they don't have to.
I'm curious to see what Warren has to say here. Because, what is that old fable? The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Yes, I definitely learned it the hard way. But let's see what old Uncle Warren has to say. They behave in very human ways, they get very excited during bull markets, they look in the rearview mirror and say, "I made money last year." "I'm going to earn more money this year, so this time I'll borrow," or the neighbor says, " Last year I didn't participate and that neighbor who is dumber than me earned a lot of money , so this year I'm going to enter." They're always looking in the rearview mirror.
And when they look in the rearview mirror and see that a lot of money has been made in recent years, they invest recklessly and simply drive prices up again and again . And when they look in the rearview mirror and don't see that any money has been made, they simply say, "This is a terrible place to be." So they don't care about what's going on.
Warren just described what a trend is. The stupid efficient market hypothesis would say that this does n't exist, but he says, "Hey, look , you see your neighbors making money, you made money last year." "That's the trend." "That's literally a trend." I'm glad you described that. Thank you, sir. In the underlying business.
And it's amazing. But that creates a huge opportunity. Simply a huge opportunity. I mean, I've lived about half, in an investment sense, about half of that period. And I had that long period of stagnation from '65 to '82, 17 years. I wrote an article for Forbes in 1979. I simply said: How can this be?
Pension funds in 1970 invested over 100% of their new money in stocks because they were crazy about them. Then they became much cheaper and hit a record low of 9% of their new money in 1978, when shares were much cheaper. Well , I mean, that's the difference between a trader and an investor, right? An investor wants to buy low and sell high, but a trader wants to buy high and sell even higher.
Well, yes, that's my personal perspective. People behave in very peculiar ways in terms of their reaction, and it really depends on the market scenario, right? He says that when stocks were low, they didn't invest new money, which, in my opinion, was smart, because when stocks are low, they tend to go down, right?
I don't buy anything when the price is going down . But when it hits rock bottom and starts to change, it starts to rise again. That 's when you come in. That's when you have the best risk-return ratio, right? When, say, a stock has dropped from 100 to five. I will not buy at any point between 100 and 5 while it is going down.
But if it goes up from 5 to 100, you can buy at any point during the rise, at 10, 20, 30, 40, and when it reaches 100, all those gains will be positive. So buy when it's low and starts to change, it's at the bottom of the crest, well, it 's not the crest, it would be the opposite, the bottom of the wave.
That offers the best return on investment. Because it can't go much lower if you decide to leave, but you can take advantage of the rise from 5 to 100. Their actions, because they are human beings and get excited when others get excited, make them greedy. When others are greedy, they feel fear. And they will continue to do so.
And you know, you'll see things you won't believe in your life. And the stock markets and the country will prosper over time. But you will see these great waves, and if you can remain objective throughout it all, if you can emotionally detach yourself from the crowd, you will become very rich without needing to be very brilliant.
I mean, I mentioned this in another video about Warren; He could tell you all the rules, but you don't have the psychology to succeed like him, because you can't think like Warren thinks. You can try it, but it only works when you grasp the concept of "I'm going to buy and keep this forever." Not that I'm going to buy and hold, but if it drops from 100 to five, then I'll finally sell.
You have to get out. If it goes from 100 to five, you have to get out like at 98. Yes. I'm sure you are, but what you want , you know, doesn't require intelligence. It requires temperament. It requires the ability to sit there and observe something. When I started in 1950, I looked for things that traded at twice their earnings ; They were perfectly decent businesses; people wanted to work for those companies; everyone knew they would continue to exist, and they weren't buying them at double the profits, even though interest rates were at two and a half percent.
You know, I started selling securities when I was 21. And my insurance company, Kansas City Life, happened to be a pretty big company in Omaha. And the policies they sold, if you bought life insurance from them, had an implicit assumption of 2% interest. Kansas City Life's shares were trading at less than three times its earnings.
You got 35% if you bought the stock . There was no doubt about the company's strength . I went to see the local agent. I thought I would be able to sell him some shares. In other words, the guy understands that he has his whole life invested in this company. I went to see the local agent who had been with them for 20 years , his name was Moose, and I said to him, " Sir, you sell these policies at 2 %." You may even have some members of your own family involved, and you can invest in this company on which your salary depends each month, and on whose future the beneficiaries of these policies depend, to whom you are selling an investment at 2%, and you can earn 35% with their money.
He said, "The stocks aren't good," and I couldn't, I couldn't sell them, you know, I'm a terrible salesman. I mean, well, we have to start there. But it blew my mind . It left me completely stunned. Sometimes I wondered if I was crazy, you know, but things stayed the same. In 1964 the Dow closed at 864 and then in 1981, 17 years later, it closed at 865.
It only moved one point in 17 years. It's not a big movement, and you wouldn't believe how discouraged people were during that period, but, you know, people were living better. So things can last a long time without making sense, but in the end they come to an end. In other words, the thing about the internet is that you had these.
At the point of the video, Warren says how long stocks can remain overvalued . He simply said it could last a long time. Not that, uh , what was it?, 1967 to 84 or any range where it only moved one point. Not that it was overrated, but the market can do crazy things for a long time, that's what it says.
Companies that are sold for billions of dollars that really, frankly, had no prospects of making money. That's it, that's a bubble. But Herb Stein once said, "Everything that cannot last forever will end." That's nice, but think about it, and especially think about it the next time you try to do something just because the stock has gone up a lot, you know, and your neighbors made money or something.
You just have to sit down and think objectively and ask yourself: would I buy this whole business? If it's an internet company, it has 100 million shares outstanding and it sells for 100, that's 10 billion dollars. Is it worth 10 billion dollars? If it's worth 10 billion dollars, it has to be able to give you, you know, 700 or 800 million next year.
And if it doesn't give you 700 or 800 million next year, it has to give you maybe 10% more than that the following year and keep going; there's no talking about business valuations here. Um, and translating that to the price of being able to do that, people just go crazy. People are going crazy wondering how long stocks can remain overvalued .
And, and, and that was, that was Warren's point here, is that if a trend continues, it can keep doing it. As he said, people go crazy, um, potentially for a long time. Um, so yeah, that was super, super interesting. I really enjoy listening to, uh, these speeches from the best investors in history. Um, and I hope you do too .
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