저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
채널 운영자는 BTC 온체인 지표(손실 공급 비율 29.2%, NUPL 74, 레버리지 청산 등)를 근거로 비트코인이 약세장이 아니라 대규모 상승장 초입이라고 주장한다. Ray Dalio의 'QE를 버블 위에 얹는 유동성 공급' 발언과 Grok의 9~12개월 상승 탄력 전망을 인용하며, 2026년 late 피크를 언급한다. 회원 리스크 모델·출구 플래너 가입을 유도하는 홍보 성격이 강하다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin flashing a $6 trillion end game as Bitcoin accumulation surges to record levels and Ray Dalio stimulating into a bubble. If you've been watching my videos, you know I've been doing my best in terms of like this altcoin market cap chart trying to explain why from a data driven perspective, I don't think at all we're entering a bear market, but I think we are going to have a massive bull run and Ray Dalio worth $15 billion in seemingly successful career, an epic investor laying out just the framework for everything that I've been talking about.
Hit the subscribe and like on your way in. If you're not in our intelligence system with our risk models, our exit planners, now is a good time to try it out. Get into our free trial. Click the link below. Let's jump into the video. So, I want to start. I'm going to start with just some supply and loss data as well as our one of our indicators that's back here.
This is the net unrealized profit loss chart. And then I want to just discuss what Ray Dalio is saying. This melt up phase that is getting set up as quantitative tightening after years is getting ready to come to an end. So, let's start with this post. Just a few points I want to read here. The $6 trillion end game nobody saw coming.
Bitcoin just flashed the exact signature that preceded every parabolic explosion in history and 99% of market participants are looking the wrong way. You can see that sentiment online like very strongly. 29.2% of supply now underwater. This number has appeared three times before. May 2017, which is actually interesting when we're about to go look at this on-chain metric, the net unrealized profit loss metric.
But May 2017 before the run to 19,800, May 2021 before 69,000, May or I'm sorry, March 2024 at 40,000 before the vault to 73,000. 150% to 400% gains within 6 months each time. So, 19 Couple more points and then we're going to look at these charts. $19 billion. This is what just happened. This is what just happened.
This is so important for like contextual value to what we're discussing in this video. $19 billion in leverage positions just vaporized. Perpetual open interest collapsed 42%. While retail capitulated, long-term holders absorbed 14.4 million Bitcoin, 70% of circulating supply. Again, this is while Bitcoin accumulation surges to record record levels.
Now, this chart that he's kind of posting about is the Bitcoin It's the Bitcoin supply loss. So, the line that you see there is tracking how much of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held at a loss. And just look at that. Every spike that you see here, it marks kind of a moment of just struggle in the market.
Coins underwater, traders capitulating. That's what's going on on the screen. And if you look at it, if you look at the price of Bitcoin at these moments, it's not like the top of a bull market when that is happening. It usually comes right before a major upward move in Bitcoin. That's that chart. Now, within our intelligence system, besides our exit planners and risk models, by the way, everybody, we have a bunch of on-chain back here.
This is the net unrealized profit loss. Now, this measures kind of basically the the average holders unrealized profitability. Now, it's kind of all over the place, as you can see, but in general, when it's high, there's some type of euphoria going on. And when it's low, there's some type of kind of fear dominating the markets.
And you can see, this is a great tool to use, one tool to use for spotting bear market lows. And obviously bear bull market highs, too, but just look at the bear market lows and what's happening here in this in this chart. Right now, NUPL is elevated. It's at a 74 on, you know, the way that we've kind of displayed the data, but it is not anywhere It's not anywhere near euphoria.
It's actually kind of just in a cooling phase. And what I wanted to point out is this is something that can happen mid-cycle or we can call it before a bull run. And this is also when, you know, people maybe bulls are kind of getting starting to get shaken out. We can start folding and this is a good time where, at this moment, value can start transferring.
And that is what I think is going to happen and we're going to look at what Ray Dalio is saying in terms of this market, in terms of the cycle. But to to leave you with this, if you go back, interestingly enough interestingly enough, to even We can go back here to May. We we kind of just got a note of May 2017.
Look at this chart. The signal was peaking 96. And this is just an illustration for you. Guess what? The bull market was not over. There was a lot of bull market left. So, when we start getting into this range where we are right now, we're at a 74, if you kind of just look at it um on on this chart, the net unrealized profit loss is at 0.45.
If we go back to 2017, and we try and find like this range, here is at 0.59. Still, look at the look at the peak. 90 90 92. It's in the 90s, 80s. We're at a 74 right now. So, this is a very good example of why we still have a lot of room to go with just this data point alone. But even go to last bull market, it was hitting 90 at a 0.58 in November 2020 in November 2020.
That is That is when the bull market doors for Bitcoin were broken. There was a lot of bull market left. So, point is, you can imagine at 74 what kind of move could be in store. Now, I want to go over here. So, stimulating into a bubble. I'm going to read a little bit. This is very long. I'm not going to read any anywhere near like the the length of this post.
I'm I I found the I think very valuable insights to what Ray is saying. And then I asked Grok his thoughts briefly. So, we're going to see if Grok agrees. And it looks like Grok does agree. But And by the way, I know it's not charts, but this is probably the most important part of this video. This is This is backing up everything that I've been saying in terms of the cycles and in terms of this post quantitative tightening normalization area that we're about to go into.
And it really is a new era for the cycle. So, let me just read a few points. Did you see that the Fed's announcement that it will stop QT and begin QE? Whilst described as a technical maneuver, anyway you cut it, it's an easy move. There's people and even me, I'm kind of just like I'm not sitting here saying we're going into crazy QE.
Ray Dalio is saying this is a QE move. Right? I'm interested in just the the liquidity uh contraction that's been happening. That's just going to stop. I'm interested in that. But look at this. When the Fed and or other central banks buy bonds, it creates liquidity and pushes real interest rates down as you see in the chart below.
What happens next depends on where the liquidity goes. So, check out how this could play out. It would be reasonable to expect that similar to late 1999 or 2010 to 2011, there would be a strong liquidity melt up that will eventually become too risky and will have to be restrained. That word melt up.
Think about that in relation to the indicators and the metrics that we just looked at. During that melt up and just before the tightening that is enough to rein in in inflation that will pop the bubble, classically the ideal time to sell. This time is different because the Fed will begin will be easing into a bubble.
While I would expect the mechanics to work as I described, the conditions in which this QE would take place are very different from those that existed when they took place before because this time the easing will be into a bubble rather than into a bust. So, QE was a stimulus into a depression right before.
Today, the opposite is true. Asset valuations are hot are at highs. The economy is relatively strong. Inflation is above target at a relatively moderate rate. QE today is stimulus into a bubble. So, QE now would not be stimulus into a depression, but rather a stimulus into a bubble. So, let me actually let me explain This is Grok's thoughts.
I thought this was interesting. I wanted like a timeline for what Grok thought. First off, it's more like pouring gasoline on on a bonfire, likely ampli- amplifying FOMO driven gains in long duration assets like AI tech stocks and inflation sensitive ones like gold or crypto. So, these euphoric stages often last 6 to 12 months in late late cycle settings.
Okay? Factoring in today's deglobalization tailwinds, sticky services inflation and potential policy wild cards, I'd peg this one at 9 to 12 months of upside froth from the December kickoff, pushing peaks into late 2026. There are people on this video, probably, a lot of bears. The bear market is starting, Dan.
Stop. Well, here's Ray Dalio, a very seasoned successful investor, completely disagreeing with you. And nobody knows what's going to happen, but I'm agreeing with this thesis. And this has really been very in line with what I've been saying in terms of this crypto cycle. It's been extended. It's required so much patience.
It has not been easy, and that's okay. But, I think what is coming as we start seeing even data points on chain, the Bitcoin accumulation that is happening, a redistribution of crypto across the board. It's a good time to prepare everybody. I don't know when, I don't know how exactly, but I want to be prepared for this move.
If you're not in our risk models, click the link below, go study them. Use a trial to study them. If you don't like it, cancel before the trial's over, but get prepared for a move if it's going to happen. And if it doesn't happen, get prepared with accumulation areas as we study a lot of the on-chain metrics that we're talking about.
If this happens, and you're a macro-minded crypto investor, there could be a really good opportunity for accumulation. But, I think having the risk planners and the exit planners and risk mode activated for when we get into these environments where crypto's taken off, and risk is getting very high, I think it's going to be a very valuable tool for myself and our members.
So, go back there and give us a try. I appreciate you, everybody. I really do. Hit the subscribe if you enjoyed this content. If you enjoyed it as well, uh click that like button. I'll see you in the next video. God bless.
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