저자: SahilKhanna · 외국인
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마이클 배리의 엔비디아 숏 포지션과 OpenAI 관련 AI 버블 우려를 중심으로, AI 기업 밸류에이션이 과도하다는 주장. 일본 증시 4.5% 급락, 소프트뱅크 13% 하락을 근거로 제시. 이 외 인도 IPO(MobiKwik, Lenskart, Groww 등) 과열 및 Paytm·Indigo·Airtel·Zoho 등 기업 실적 소개, 인도-중국/러시아 원유 수입 변화 등을 다룸.
다듬은 글
Hi guys, my name is Sahil Khanna and let's start today's business news. The first news is about Michael Bury. So they have put Nvidia in a short position and have invested a lot of money in the short. and why is that? They feel that the valuation set for Nvidia at this time , the rates it has reached, are very unreasonable.
Because if you see, the valuation at this time does not seem justified. For example, if we talk about Amazon, its shares have been seen running up. And why were you seen running away ? Open AI has signed a cloud deal worth 38 billion with them saying that brother, we will utilize your server and the margin in their AWS is very high, so somewhere it seems that brother, this will become a very dangerous business.
Now you understand one thing, at this time the cloud commitment of Open AI is of $1.4 trillion, which means they have given so much commitment in the market that brother, we will take the data center from you, we will take it from you, we will take it from you, but the revenue of the company is 167 billion.
Recently an interview of Sam Altman came out where the discussion was that can a company with revenue of $ billion dollars give orders worth $1.4 trillion, what is the math behind it, so somewhere a valuation infrastructure bubble is being formed because if you see, Nvidia shares are running up, AWS shares are running up.
Why are you running away? Because everyone feels that so many orders have come. Open A has ordered everyone. All such tech companies are sitting there giving orders to everyone. So somewhere or the other a lot of demand is going to be created in the future. But this money is circulating among themselves.
If we talk about Entropy, they have said that they will report revenue of 70 billion by 2028. According to their current ARR, their revenue is going to be only $9 billion. Targeting 2026. This means that according to them, there will be a drastic improvement in ARR of Rs 20 to 26 billion next year. So the maths that is going on, the calculations that are going on, it seems that suddenly there will be a lot of adoption in the market.
Yes, no doubt, if I talk about Cloud Code, which is Entropik's AI coding system, it is very good. If we talk about coding models today, Entropik is at the forefront. But will such evaluation be justified? Don't know. If we talk about the Japanese stock market, it has been seen going down by 4.5%. Worst single day decline in the last 7 months.
And it is being said that this decline has come because the AI bubble that is being formed is now visible to everyone. Earlier people used to just talk, now everyone started understanding, everyone saw Sort Bank going down by 13%. This is a very big number brother. The reason behind this is the same that the valuation of the investment made in AI companies at this time is not justified.
Today only I saw one of my old videos where I had talked about this tech bubble that brother this tech bubble is forming and it will burst and it will impact the entire market, this is almost a year old video and in that also I had said the same thing that the valuations that are being set are not understandable and in fact I would say that from then till now the story has become worse.
Rest brother, before going ahead in the video, I would like to remind you that you have not pressed the like button, press the like button and subscribe to the channel, I keep bringing such daily business news for you, rest if we talk about mbwic in India, then their loss in quarter 2 has been seen increasing eight times, brother, before the IPO comes, the companies are looking fine, after the IPO comes, the company shows many things, the company had said that they had also seen a fraud incident of Rs 40 crore in Haryana, later it was said that brother, no no, there was no cyber attack, there is no internal gate, there is no problem.
If you see, the company's revenue appears to be decreasing. The company's expenses have remained flat and due to this the company's losses have also appeared to be increasing. So this is not healthy. If you are an established company, despite the IPO, that is, despite good marketing, your revenue is decreasing.
This is not healthy at all. Talking about the rest of the Cert Helmet IPO, it has been seen to be 72x oversubscribed. Inside Final Day, Sty used to be a leader of sorts inside the helmet. I don't know right now because I am no longer a scooter rider. Sturt helmets were considered very good when I used to ride a scooter earlier.
Apart from this, IPO of Fin Labs is also going to come. The valuation has been kept 40% below their last funding round. And this is the reason why some investors are not able to make money. At this time, a lot of corrections are being seen in the valuation of IPOs because the market has started becoming a little sensible.
People have also started understanding. Apart from this, according to me, merchant bankers have also understood a game. If we create this type of air. Look, our valuation is low. We are justified in whatever work we are doing, so the listings look good. No matter what the company is doing. Just last night I uploaded a video on IPO bubble on Sahil Khana's channel.
Basically this video was to be uploaded two days ago. Yesterday's news also could not be published because brother, I accidentally spilled coconut water on the office laptop which we had bought 10 days ago and I got booked. So now I will go to the service center. There is an appointment for Monday. It will happen by then.
So right now the jugaad is going on. We are trying to work by doing something or the other. But there is a problem somewhere brother. IP bubble has been edited for the second time. The first edit was complete. The review was done. While doing the final review, my coconut dropped. Talking about the rest of the Lens Card IPO, it has been shown to be 29X oversubscribed in the final day, that is also correct brother.
Appearing in the gray market. Listing gains will be visible. But somewhere or the other, grey market prices are seen falling. Where it seemed in the beginning, it will appear to be around 20% above. Right now it has gone below 10% which is again good. But somewhere many people who are making videos on lens card think that brother the valuation is very high.
The valuation is high. Maybe it could have an effect as well. Apart from this, if we talk about Paytm, they reported a profit of Rs 21 crore in quarter two of financial year 26. Here his belly appears to be decreasing by 98%. And do you know what the reason is ? Now, due to the recent closure of online gaming, they had to do some write- off etc.
Due to this, these numbers are appearing less. The rest of the company 's service revenue has seen a growth of 21% year on year. Talking about the revenue of financial services, it has been seen increasing by 63% year on year. And if that cost is removed, the company has reported PAT of around Rs 211 crore, which appears to be in the direction of improvement.
Apart from this, Paytm is going to raise a rights issue of Rs 2250 crore. Meaning they need more money to expand themselves further. It is being said that with this money, our working capital will be improved. Some offline merchant payment businesses will be acquired. Who knows, some bank may also be bought.
If we talk about the rest of the money view, then brother reported a profit of Rs 240 crores. They have shown a rise of 40% in the financial year 25. If we talk about year on year profit. This is an online credit platform. Meaning they give loans online. Revenue has been seen increasing by 74%. And I am still saying that brother, loan tech is a good category at present.
If no dangerous regulations come into place, these businesses will flourish. I did a podcast with the founder of Lending Club. It's time for him. Look at him. You will understand a little. This is how the loan game works. How P to P landing works. You will get a lot of clarity by watching that video.
Rest, if you look at the chart, their operating revenue is seen increasing. Expenses have also increased but profits have also been seen increasing at a good level. If we talk about this successful season, consumer loans have been seen increasing by 27%. Last year there was a rise of 29%, this year it seems to be going even higher than that.
Yes, GST seems to be getting cut a little. A lot of improvement has been seen in this matter. But people have sold it forcibly. Brother, if we talk about TVs above 40 inches, then this is 71% of the TV loans. Meaning, 71% of the people who are taking loans are taking loans of 40 or above 40 inches. Look, it's a simple thing, whoever wants to buy a smaller item will probably buy it in cash.
Talking about Indigo, it has reported a loss of Rs 2582 crore in quarter 2. Brother, this company was running profitable. Suddenly she is seen going towards loss. And the biggest reason for this is said to be foreign exchange losses. You should understand that all this is being run on lease. If our currency collapses, the price of the dollar will increase.
If the price of dollar increases, then whatever amount of money they have to pay abroad will be seen increasing in dollar terms. The flight fare we are paying is within IAR. Very drastically you cannot increase the price. So this entire impact is visible on their balance sheet. Because their rental and maintenance of the aircraft are all in dollars.
If we talk about revenue, then 9.3% year on year rise has been seen. I am talking about operational revenue. If I talk about passenger ticket revenue, there has been an 11.2% rise. So overall revenue appears to be increasing but margins appear to be decreasing. The company's EBITDA is seen improving by 85%.
Margin reached 18.7% which was earlier 11%. So overall, if you see, the problem has arisen due to the dollar exchange issue. The Income Tax Department had filed a case of Rs 8500 crore against Vodafone. He was withdrawn. Brother, what is it brother? Have they performed any different level of worship during Diwali ?
Did you suppress something? Did they spill anything? Suddenly these positive news are coming about Vodafone. First the Supreme Court says AGRDO. After that the news comes out that the promoters are selling their shares. An outside player is coming out big. Then now brother, the income tax people are leaving them.
Brother, I mean, it's fun overall with them. After talking about Airtel, we reached the government after Vodafone Idea. Brother, please cut our AGR dues. If you are reducing the tax on Vodafone Idea too, then have we committed any sin that you should reduce it on us too. Look, it is true that if you are favouring one person then you should favour the other person also.
This is business, right? No one else will make a video on this because Adani and Ambani are not coming into it. No one will say that brother, Vodafone is being supported separately. This is not fair. Airtel should also do it because people hate specific people more. Rest of the Airtel people are doing well.
Overall, their price is seen going up to ₹256. Earlier it was ₹250 within Quarter 2. ₹6 appeared to be rising. 2.4% means their revenue has been seen increasing by 5.4%. So overall everything looks good for them. Apart from this, talking about porters, he laid off 350 employees. Brother, this is a big number.
They fired 18% of their workforce. Restructuring is underway. Cost cutting is being done. All this seems to be happening because of this. I want to tell the water people that this is a one-time plan, brother. Meaning, whatever layoffs were to happen have happened. There will be no further layoffs. Rest, let's see, whoever has to bring the IPO does something or the other so that the numbers at the time of IPO look good.
Rest, relations between India and China seem to be improving. India is resuming its imports from China after 5 years. It was stopped after the tensions of 2020. But now it will be approved gradually, case by case. Apart from this, India's oil imports from USA were seen reaching a four-year high in the month of October.
This means that India has taken oil from USA and has also increased it. The average is 5930 barrels per day and this number is the highest since March 2021. But it is not that Russia has stopped here. If we talk about Russia's average in the month of October, it is sitting at 1.62 million. Almost assume it has happened two and a half to three times.
At present, 34% of India's crude oil imports are coming from Russia. Apart from this, if we talk about Reliance, then Reliance will stop buying Russian crude oil from November 21. Meaning, whatever has been discussed in the sessions is being accepted by the Reliance people. Within the rest of the month of October, they have reduced the import of Russian oil by 25%.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United States have expanded. Apart from this, if we talk about Bangladesh, the government there can cancel the Adani Power deal. It is being said that a corruption case may come out in this. There may be some irregulars that brother prying is not right, it is not. This issue had come up earlier also with Adani Powers where their payments were not coming.
They had cut off electricity to Bangladesh. After that, the people of Bangladesh returned 437 million dollars to them within the month of June. After that they got their electricity back and it is being said that if this case escalates then the electricity may be cut again. Otherwise, if something comes out, this thing can last for a long time and Bangladesh will suffer more losses.
Adani Power has nothing. He will sell the electricity somewhere else. Data centers are coming. Data centers need power. We will take it out there. We will build a data center there. As for StarBS, it is selling 60% of its stake in its China business for $4 billion. Basically a joint venture will be formed where Starbux will hold 40% ownership.
He will keep everything related to the brand license with himself. IPS etc. will keep everything with itself and 60% will be kept by another entity. She will see everything. Starbux entered China in 1999 and operates over 8,000 stores. Their plan is to take it to 20,000 stores. So let's see what happens inside Starbucks China.
Rest Zoho Mail has hit annual revenue of $ million dollars brother. And let me tell all the patriots that 70% of the revenue has come from outside India. Has not come from India. Zoho's major business is run from outside. If you find their WhatsApp alternative on YouTube, install it and start making noise but do not use it in life, then you will not get anything.
At the time when there was a lot of craze for Jo. I said this. I said brother, these products come, there is noise but there is no adoption. Personally, I also want India to have social media. We created an alternative to WhatsApp. We made Facebook. But that adoption cannot happen, friend. I personally don't even use Telegram.
Many people don't need many apps. If I need to talk to someone. If the other person also does not have that app and I am not able to talk then the conversation ends. This is the game of adoption, when more and more people will use the same app. Indians get a little more excited. Rest of the zo mail is very good.
I have been using this for a long time. zob books suppose since existence we are using. Talking about HP, they say that all their pieces that will be sold in India now will be manufactured locally in the next three to five years. Our government had launched some PLI scheme that if you bring goods from outside then we will impose tax.
If you make it inside India, you will get some benefits etc. So somewhere HP people are understanding that thing and this has been done now. Apart from this, if we talk about NCLD, they have allowed WhatsApp to share user data for AIDS. This means that our WhatsApp data can now be shared with Facebook ads.
Meaning Facebook ads can run on WhatsApp. Look, our chats will not go here. They say that if you and I are talking to each other then it is end to end encrypted. This means WhatsApp people can't do anything with this. Majorly if we are talking to some meta AI then they can use that data. Apart from this, we will do some more things, it is not clear yet.
So we will see ads inside stories etc. Just some time ago I also received a notification to approve it. It might have been the day before yesterday and at the same time they got approval from the government. Rest of the people think that brother, all these phones listen to our conversations. Whatever discussion we are having, its ads start appearing, so tell me in the comment section because from the very beginning I feel that whatever we talk about, whatever we are doing, whether it is encrypted or not, I see those ads.
Other algorithms have become so smart. I understand enough to know what I can think or else there is something wrong. With this our today's business news ends. I hope you enjoyed it. Please like it, please share it. Comment and tell me how you liked the video. Bye good night. Night of God, my beloved.
Good morning afternoon. Whenever you are watching a video. Jai Hind Vande Mataram.
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