저자: KevinPraath · 외국인
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Powell 이후 촉매 소멸로 강세였으나 향후 고용·CPI·FOMC·우크라이나 이슈 등 촉매가 몰려 있어 레버리지 축소 필요. Rahul Pal 분석(기술주 버블 아님, BTC 강세)을 소개하되 AI 생산성이 고용 감소를 낳아 실적을 훼손할 수 있다는 점을 약점으로 지적. 레버리지 ETF 노출이 과소 추적되고 있어 급락 위험이 크다고 경고. 전반적으로 풀 마진은 피하되 극단적 약세는 아님. MP Materials 목표가 근접 언급.
다듬은 글
This has been what's gotten me so excited about the market to the upside. I had a call in the Me Kevin Alpha report that we were going to go to $615. Uh, and I have to say I'm I'm pretty impressed that we got within less than $2 of that. We got to $61318. But that's because we had no catalyst and this changes quickly because we literally went from no catalysts after Powell.
Nothing. Like not only did we have no catalyst to worry about, but we were literally like, man, if the government shuts down, they're literally going to take away even more catalyst. Like we won't get CPI on time. We won't even get a jobs report, right? So those catalysts went away. Now, post taco, which don't get me wrong, we had a glorious taco.
I mean, we made taco charts. I asked my designer to make a beautiful version of my taco chart, which was nowhere near as beautiful as this one, but we are at an 8.2 out of 10 on the taco chart at meetke.com/data. I put some other things on here as well, like I put uh you know what what are the odds of a tariff rate on China between 60 to 100% on November 12th?
These odds have plummeted now just 6%. So, this is sort of the market accepting the taco. Will the federal government be shut down for uh 10 to 29 days in 2025? This is starting to fall because people are betting that the government's going to be shut down longer. So, I'm just putting some trackers here which I think are useful.
But understand now we actually have a lot of catalysts coming up and this is going to be something we have to watch because Bessant now expects that Donald Trump is going to meet Xiinping. So, we're basically now getting the fullblown positive catalyst of, oh, okay, they're going to meet and everything's going to be okay.
But markets usually just price in, oh, we're going to meet and everything's going to be okay. And we don't actually price in, well, what if they meet and everything is not okay, right? Then you've got Powell tomorrow. Powell speaks at NAB tomorrow. He's the keynote speaker. And every Fed speaker talks tomorrow, like almost tomorrow and the next day.
Uh, we've got Zalinsky coming to Washington on Friday, which is probably when he's going to get his tomahawks. Like, he's probably coming to Door Dash tomahawks for Ukraine, which is going to create some geopolitical tensions, maybe even oil up on that. Uh, you got CPI coming out in 11 days. You got the Fed meeting coming out in 13 to 14 days.
Maybe we'll get a double jobs report, which I think would be bad. Like, imagine you get a double jobs report. I think this would be the it would be a horrible moment. like you'd probably get TLT 100 instantaneously if you got a double jobs report which would be September and October combined getting released maybe at the beginning of November and you get this double jobs report and it potentially leads to emergency cuts from the Fed.
Maybe not. Maybe we'll confirm a soft landing. But the point is all of these catalysts on top of earning season starting this creates some reason to at least be a little nervous. maybe start thinking about like at least some deleveraging. Right? So, this is where, like I always say, I tell my, you know, course members in the ME Kevin membership, hey, like I'll let you know when I start tripping a little bit.
But what I want to pay attention to is Rahul Bal. Uh, he had a really good post this weekend and I thought it was interesting because it actually tells us, hey, don't worry, maybe everything is fine. And I wanted to look at some of the charts that he had because he had a great thread. So, uh, let's go look at his thread here.
He writes, "No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than one standard deviation from trends." And I'll tell you what the Achilles heel of this entire analysis is because I actually think he did a great job uh doing this analysis. I just think there's one Achilles heel that he didn't talk about.
Uh, and it's the most critical Achilles heel, which is great. Well, I mean, like the impact of it could be great. It the Achilles heel is not a great thing. So, he writes, uh, we are less than one standard deviation from trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990s when we exploded out of a decade log regression channel.
basically when we got, you know, overvalued. Log logarithmic scale just basically like chills the chart out a little bit. We're oversimplifying here, right? Okay. So, we exploded out of the channel. Part of this was because a lot of companies with very few earnings were actually like in the tech index and tech the whole tech index was pretty new back then.
This isn't the Achilles heel, but it's worth knowing like the tech index, the NASDAQ was so sensitive to tech because that was the first time we actually had tech in the tech index. I mean, yeah, technically you had Apple and stuff like that in the earlier years, but let's be real, the tech boom was here, dot bubble, so it was a an immature index, right?
That's why it doesn't go back much further than that. Anyway, then he writes, but PE ratios aren't uh or at bubble valuations, he says. uh the narrative doesn't take into account the fact of the debasement of what's happening with prices uh and uh of prices getting debased more than earnings. So basically if he says prices get diluted 11% GDP is 2% PE rises by 9%.
He's basically making this argument that companies are able to be more efficient take more to the bottom line therefore we could justify higher PE ratios over time. I don't know if I agree with this. I think it again also not the Achilles heel. It's a good argument. It's it's it's great and it'd probably take a whole video on its own to really break it down.
It's a decent argument though. This idea that over time, hey, because of debasement, companies become more valuable. This is a simple way to put it. Owning assets like real estate or shares of corporations is almost always going to be more valuable than holding dollars. And I completely agree with that.
I want my money out of dollars as quickly as possible. But do keep in mind there is a balance to where you want some dollars because dollars are also the best call option that exists in the world. Dollars, as Warren Buffett tells us, are a call option on everything with no time expiration. Think about that for a moment.
Call options on every asset in the world with no expiration date. That's kind of nice, especially for people who have really good ideas on call options, but then maybe their timing is off or their sizing is off or whatever, right? Uh so, continuing on uh with the chart, we've got BTC is less than one standard deviation from trend.
It usually hits two standard deviations when there's sort of excess euphoria like it did here in 21 or 2017. He argues that the business cycle has been lackluster so far. Although I think he, you know, this is also not the Achilles heel. I don't think he's accounting for the fact that you might have this might just be part of the whole downtrend of this last up.
What he's arguing in his post is, oh well, we go up then we go down, so the next cycle should be up, but we're consolidating evenly here. We might actually be about to break down on the ISMs. So, I don't think that's the best chart over here. uh which in turn is driven by lower liquidity needed to add uh to the US as uh you know whatever he's talking about liquidities.
The issue here is we in my opinion have more dollars that exist today in circulation. Obviously, we saw the inflation and the money printing, but they're not just flowing into normal things like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. They're flowing into leveraged funds. And this is probably the first cycle we are lit Vance interview just got cut off on ABC after tense exchange.
Oh, that's going to be entertaining. But anyway, you got to think about this money today. there's more money and a lot of it we don't even know how much is going to leveraged ETFs. This is going to be the first cycle where we actually see the pain of not tracking leveraged ETF exposure because we track margin debt which is at all-time highs but what happens when we actually factor in leveraged ETFs to me not good things.
Uh okay. Uh so then we have thus the bulk of liquidity is delayed and forward-looking indicators suggest it lies ahead. and financial conditions give us a 3-month lead. Fine, it's bullish. That in turn leads ISMs. So, he argues global liquidity is going to lead ISMs to break to the upside. Honestly, like I said, I think he did a great job with the thread here.
Uh, and that all drive numbers go up. NASDAQ has a slight premium currently, but that's normal at this phase of the cycle. BTC usually decouples at this point in the cycle as well to the upside. So, obviously, his whole thread here is bullish BTC. We're about to break up to the upside. Bullish NASDAQ.
You're paying a little bit of a premium, but it's worth it right now. We're not in a bubble. Everything's fine. I hope so. But there's the one Achilles heel he forgot in this whole damn thing. And the fact that he doesn't mention it is sad. You should already know what it is. You should be screaming at your screen or your phone or whatever it is going, Kevin, I know exactly what it is.
It is the coupon code expiring called the Schumer siesta at meetke kevin.com where . No, it's not actually that. It's actually what happens what drives corporate revenues. What drives earnings per share? Obviously business is expanding. Now there are two factors that go into that and this is still not the Achilles heel.
One is theopium. the opium factor that we are going to see AI drive productivity. But what happens if AI doesn't actually drive productivity on net instead AI drives productivity for the people who know how to weaponize it and then everybody else loses their jobs. Think about that for a moment. See, there are people who truly think that artificial intelligence can replace their job.
Those people are probably going to lose their job. Then there are other people who know how to weaponize AI. They know how to use AI because they use it for cold temperature tasks. They use it to ideulate on warm temperature tasks, but they know not to take on warm temperature tasks it for granted. We're releasing new lectures in the the Me Kevin membership, by the way, talking about this difference and how to weaponize AI versus letting somebody else weaponize it against you.
He has some really cool examples, even legal examples, real legal examples. It's really fun. But understand what again this thread is missing is exactly what I'm leading to. Now before I lead to that, I I want to remind you that if you go to uh investing.com, they've got their prosale going on, their flash sale going on right now.
And uh the reason I bring that up is because if you go to investing pro, this is what I get so excited about, and you look at a company, you could get their forward earnings if you have their Pro Plus membership. I'm a big fan of this. Yeah, I'm also sponsored by them, but that's because they got their flash sale going on and you can get an extra 15% off if you use coupon code me Kevin.
Now, what's really exciting about this is what drives earnings here, folks. Well, what drives earnings? Jobs, people having money. That's what's missing from Raul's threat is first of all, he probably doesn't have the investing pro plus membership, which yes, #sponsor, but is amazing because they've got their flash sale going on between now and Wednesday.
So, really encourage you using that coupon code me Kevin. You can actually use uh this forecast tool uh to understand where these earnings are showing up for companies and what works out. We compared it by the way in to the I won't mention any names but certain like terminal software where people pay like 30 grand a year and it's pretty dang similar which is amazing that you could get these earnings forecast but think about that when we factor in Raul's uh thesis he didn't talk about jobs at all what happens if AI is super productive for some people but it doesn't actually drive revenues instead what it does is it makes existing people more productive which means you need fewer people that creates a really ugly negative cycle.
So think about this in in a more clean line. Okay, let's do this together here because I think there's a lot of value in understanding when when people are so bullish sometimes they do miss you the forest for the trees. So what do we have here? Look at this. you start with AI is productive for some.
Okay, this doesn't necessarily mean a biz makes more money, right? Like, are you going to sell more Caterpillar tractors because of your workers and human resources being more productive? No. But you need fewer workers. Those people get laid off. What ends up happening when those people get laid off?
earnings per share at companies like Cake or Dave and Busters or, you know, whatever go down. This isn't a surprise. I mean, even look at like Dutch Bros, for example, right? Earnings go down. This is also why I'm so excited about seeing where the market's head is and why I put this banner up here because we could see where the market's head is on earnings expectations for companies using Investing Pro.
Uh, and then uh here, let's do an example here together. I don't know. Let's let's pick Bros for example. You can also see what's going on with their earnings revisions. Look at this. So, if I go to Bros., you could oneclick a PDF here. And this is what's so exciting about them. Go down over here. Look at this earnings revisions.
EPS revisions. You can see they're starting to trick up trickle up over here on the right after coming down substantially after uh um what's it called? The uh the Trump the Trump liberation. Uh but a lot of those impacts are still potentially to be felt and I think Raul mentioned nothing about this and this is where again people have this mindset that oh AI is going to create keep pushing this boom of chip sales and that great so who wins in this case who wins the rich get richer the rich get richer that's just unfortunately how it works over and over again these companies are able to do more with fewer people the rich get richer the rich earn more money and everybody else loses.
I mean, think about this. If you had a company with 10 employees and you make $10 million of revenue, okay, we're just going to make an example here together. So, so this makes as much sense as possible. Now, enter AI. All right. So, AI comes in. Uh, you can do the work of 10 with five people. Okay.
So, you lay off five. You lay off five people. Your company revenues. Company revenues still 10 mil, right? But you did it with half of your human labor. That's going to take that'll take a long time to show up. Uh but when it does, it's going to suck. Uh so, that's that's the Achilles heel of this analysis.
Now, does that mean this is going to roll over very soon? Maybe not. But let's just put it this way. We're we're setting up for a lot more catalysts over the next few couple months here than what we've had over the last uh three weeks. The last 3 weeks we've been in a really fortunate situation. We've been straight up uh obviously since uh since April, which is where we first started advocating for trailing stops.
If you had trailing stops over here, you would have been riding the market all the way up. Now though, we have new catalysts to deal with, a lot of catalysts to deal with, and I'm most worried about a double jobs report and then a potential subsequent deleveraging. So, it's not saying be bearish immediately.
But what it's saying is, hey, if you've got a bunch of debt outstanding, you know, you've got margin, don't get rugged like some of the people did this weekend. Did you see what people were writing this weekend on social? I don't know how much of it is like bull crap. I spend very very very little amount of time actually looking uh on any kind of scrolling sites.
But uh like here this guy, you know, this guy was echoing some of what we saw this weekend. I don't know where this guy is from. Jake Jakey from Super Kick. He's got kicked down, but whatever. People legit lost their whole portfolio. Biggest liquidation event in history. And then basically Trump says, "Never mind.
All good." 48 hours later. Insane. I mean, he's got a point. He's got a really good point here that, you know, people did get screwed here by what happened over the weekend. But it's not just that. It's the insider trading that you had. The insider trading that we had was insane with people minting hundreds of millions of dollars on insider trade shorts with crypto wallets opened up just moments before this news drops.
It's almost like they're sitting in the Oval Office going, "All right, everybody get their bets in. All right, let's send the to the the truth social or or probably goes more like uh you know Trump pulling something like a all right, I'm going to schedule this truth to go out, you know, and people are quickly setting up their trades.
I mean, like I don't know how much of this stuff is true, but look at this guy. Today was the worst day of my life financially. Over $9 million gone instantly. Typic typing this feels like ripping open a wound that's still bleeding. But I'm posting it because this space needs more honesty. You see wins, the 100x calls, the yachts, but you rarely see what happens when the market humbles you.
It wasn't a rug. It wasn't a hack. It was me. Overconfident, overexposed that the market did what it always does. Reminded me who's in charge. I wasn't gambling with crazy leverage. It was a quote safe play. The one that can't go wrong until it does. One bad trade, one liquidation wick, and boom, 9 mil erased in seconds.
The truth is no one is untouchable, you know. And it wasn't just this. There was another guy, too. Where did I have it? I think I bookmarked it here somewhere. There was another guy who had uh Yeah, here it is. This guy, I don't know, sounds very similar, but he says, "I thought about taking my own life multiple times since.
I can confidently say my mom saved my life by answering my phone call at 3:00 a.m. on a random Saturday. I owe my life to my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ." And he's basically talking about how he got fully liquidated, you know? So, it's it's the leverage, man. Leverage, leverage, leverage. If there's one thing I could just say to people, take like recognize that as humans, we are when things are going good, we are going to naturally be greedy.
We're going to have that we're going to be looking at our margin accounts. We're going to be like, damn, bro, I'm almost max margin or whatever it is. We're going to look and be like, "Oh crap, almost max margin." But then the candles are green, you know? Then you look, it's like, "Ah, the cues are up 2%.
Dude, I'm making so I'm printing money on margin." But you like Friday was a wakeup call. Look how quickly the market tanked on Friday, dude. The Q's were down almost 4%. If you were in on a leveraged Nvidia position, let's say, you were down 10 to 15% on the largest company in the world in the span of a few hours.
And that's just on one well technically on two truth social posts. So, imagine when actually hits the fan. Nvidia on a leveraged ETF position, not considering options, just a 2x or 3x leveraged ETF uh Nvidia position would have sent you down 10 to 15%. On two truth social posts, imagine the pain when we get a double bad jobs report or like, oh my gosh, wait a minute, we haven't been paying attention to the Achilles heel.
So, you know, I'm not here to be bearish. Trust me. Look, I got a bullish price target on MP Material in the course member liveream. Uh, and we are about to hit it. Like, this is insane. MP material, we've been tracking this one for quite a long time. We're about to hit the bullish catalyst and the me Kevin membership uh or or of the price target, which is way sooner than I thought, but it like wow, we're almost at my target.
Now, I have longer term thoughts on that like is that a profit take? You know, what to do? We talk about that in the me Kevin membership. Remember, you could join using uh Schumer Siesta. Did we add Siesta to the soundboard? If we haven't added the Siesta to the soundboard, we really ought to. I don't think we added the Siesta to the soundboard.
That's unfortunate. Uh I I do have a breaking news thing I could play. Put that on. Does that work? No, it's not working. All right. So, I'll just put the hat on. It's all right. So, coupon code Schumer Siesta. But anyway, uh yeah, I think that's like that's what the bulls are missing right now, right?
And that's probably that doesn't make me bearish, but it does make me unwilling to be full margin. Like if you go to uh the was it meat.com/data? We just made this the taco chart, right? Uh the taco chart. If you go above the taco chart, we still need to update the bull bear scale because this is supposed to be at a 10.
So we made a little mis the designer made a little oopsies over here. But I'm actually like the little bare bull scale. I put it at four out of three out of 10. So, it's actually probably more of an orange over here. And the idea here is like in the mid-range, the goal is you could be bullish, but just don't go crazy debt.
Like the time to go full bull, full debt is when the market's like low low. Like, as an example, when I bought in March of 2020, I refinance everything. I go buy like crazy. or you know at the end of 2022 when I sent out an alert and I'm buying chip stocks you know of which you know Nvidia is up like I don't know what's it up now 100x or something like that 10x I can't remember cuz it's up a lot uh it's probably more like a 10x but anyway it's up a lot you know that's great like those are the times to to lever up but anyway so uh okay that's u a little bit of insight in terms of where we sit bond market is closed today.
Obviously, we expect the bond market will open up again tomorrow, so we'll get a little guidance. We did get a drop on the bond market uh on Friday. Uh this will probably go up a little bit. Uh and I'm curious where our 102 spread goes. Our 102 spread should be stable tomorrow because we're not really getting much shock out of this whole Trump thing.
Uh because there's so much hope that oh, okay, yeah, Xiinping and that they're still going to meet. Everything will be fine. All right. Well, we'll see what ends up happening, I guess. oil still under 60 on that western blend though. Pretty pretty incredible. So, uh, very very very interesting. Uh, anyway, okay.
Uh, that, uh, that gives us a little bit of a thought on bulls versus the bare thesis and the Achilles heel of the marke.
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