저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프가 중국 관세 강경 입장에서 물러서는 'TACO' 신호를 보였고 비트코인도 114k로 회복했다. 중국은 희토류 수출통제 라이선스를 문제 삼으며 미국 정치를 비판 중이다. 셧다운 장기화와 일부 해고가 GDP를 깎을 수 있으며, 시장은 반등 후 CPI·FOMC·실적 등 촉매를 앞두고 있어 신고가 돌파는 쉽지 않다는 전망이다. 10년물 금리는 4.10% 부근까지 오를 수 있다고 봤고, 나스닥은 약 80~120bp 반등을 예상했다. 주택 리노베이션 홍보 비중도 큰 편이다.
다듬은 글
Great news everyone. Donald Trump is already tacoing. Now this was the escape patch from what we heard on Friday. Everybody's like Trump's going to taco, right? He always tacos. He He always That's That's what taco is after all. Trump always chickens out. It's not like Soo where it's like Trump sometimes chickens out.
It's always chickens out. And that's literally what we just got in this Truth Social post, which we'll talk about in just a moment. As we can see already, Bitcoin finally moving back over not just 110, which it broke briefly uh between yesterday and Friday, but now back to 114. Nice recovery here. Should lead futures to move higher once the futures actually open at 3 p.m.
California time. In addition to that, we should look at betting markets and then understand, of course, what was said and what this means. So, betting markets were already anticipating a taco. If we go to poly markets US tariff rate on China by November 12th, which is just basically 30 days out, we can see that betting markets on the oh no, Trump's going to increase tariffs.
You plummeted the odds that tariffs would be between 25 to 40% from 69% uh down all the way here to a low of about 19%. However, that quickly started fading as people thought, "Ah, Trump's just going to taco again." Then we started hearing commentary that the meeting that Donald Trump said he was going to cancel with President Xi Xiinping is a meeting that just has neither been confirmed as happening or not happening which is very different from it's cancelled.
It's uh maybe we'll talk. And then we started seeing this go from a 19% chance up to a 50% chance. And then of course here very recently we've now heard this latest taco from Donald Trump on Truth Social in addition to commentary from JD Vance. See JD Vance this morning he had commentary on exactly this as well.
Uh JD suggests, "Hey, we're going to be reasonable with negotiating." And this is all coming in response to China starting to slam the United States just as early as well, Sunday morning China time, which of course is probably what, you know, hours ago at this point. Uh well, not probably, it is, right?
They're hours ahead of us. uh you know they slammed the 100% tariffs as a double standard and they started talking about how like hey you know we just want these basic licenses on our rare earth controls. We're not trying to limit your ability to get uh pro you know material for civilian use. We're just trying to protect our national security just like the United States is.
Meanwhile, you guys have just removed the dimminimous exemption on basically everything which is hurting us. Uh, and so China is sort of like, hey, we're trying to be reasonable here. Now, let's be clear, okay? It is China. So, China obviously is establishing these licenses. So, if there's ever like a war or a larger conflict, they could just ratchet the dial from you're allowed to to click click click.
You're not allowed to export rare earths anymore. It gives them a lot of control and registration over where the flows are, who the buyers are. It gives them a lot of surveillance. So when and if they actually need to stop the flow over our earth, they could do it very quickly. So understand China is being very cunning here, okay?
Like this is not, oh, you know, China's right in this. You know, China's playing their game too, but you know, as they should. It's their country to defend just like what we're trying to do, right? This is a negotiation. But what's wild about this is actually the Chinese are now taking an opportunity to slam our entire political system, which we're going to talk about that and Trump's taco in just a moment, what this is going to potentially mean for stock prices and otherwise.
But I want you to see is their argument. Now, this is the um uh basically the propaganda wing of the Chinese Communist Party. Uh the Global Times. I mean, basically all media over there is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, so it doesn't really matter. But anyway, uh I want you to see this. China doubling down.
We we do not want to try a trade war, but we are not afraid to fight one. Willful threats of high tariffs are not the way to get along with China. And following these statements, we have now seen the taco from Donnie T. Uh which my phone locked. So, let's unlock that. There we go. Don't worry about China.
It will all be fine. You know, this sounds a whole lot like Donald Trump going, you know, don't be a panicking panicking by and then, you know, hyphen DJT Donald Trump, right? Uh, so don't worry about China. It will all be fine. Highly respected Xiinping just had a bad moment. He doesn't want a depression for his country and neither do I.
The USA wants to help China, not hurt it. President DJT. See, that's the same way. He's not doing the thank you for the attention of this matter. It's a similar way that how he signed off on basically buy the dip back in April which was a fantastically timed tweet as are or truth as are many of Donald Trump's actions relative to insider trades.
Like let's not even get into the fact that on Friday somebody opened a brand new crypto wallet and shorted the crypto market just moments before Donald Trump made this announcement. Let's not talk about all the fraud and insider trading that is ruining the institutions of American integrity, what's left of it.
Uh let's just ignore all that for a moment and just be grateful that it looks like we are getting taco, which doesn't mean there won't be tariff effects in a lasting manner. We know that we're really just at the beginning of the potential impacts of tariffs. We had a 90-day pause from April, which took us obviously through May, June, and July.
Initially in April, we thought it would take, you know, 90 to 180 days to actually see the impacts. But then when you factor in all the pauses, you've really only been at this trade war for maybe 3 to 4 months, which really means 2026 is probably we're going when we're going to see most of the compounding of the actual impacts of the trade war, which does lead to some bad calculus by people who defend tariffs.
Like I'll get messages, I got a message from somebody, and I feel bad for these people, but I'm just going to speak to you, not like I'm not a politician, so you know, I'm just going to speak to you as like an economist, a financial analyst, and and a news provider. the terrorists will hit and and the pain will hit.
It's just going to take time. And when people send me messages, like somebody sent me a very respectable message. Thank you for You actually actually texted me in our little community, uh text platform, which uh I can actually put that number up. But I do read these and I try my best to reply. Oh, here it is.
But, uh that's the number if you want. But anyway, um they said, "Hey, Kevin, you know, I've I've seen firsthand, I know you don't like tariffs, and I get it, but I've seen firsthand the destruction of like basically what global trade has done to small communities in America." And uh the reality of this is totally real.
Like this is true. Yes, globalism, global trade does negatively affect those smaller unfortunately less efficient uh towns compared to Chinese manufacturers or you know what we saw happen with truckers with NAFTA, right? There are real issues that come from globalism and it's why Republicans always promote protectionism because those smaller towns are more likely to vote Republican anyway and so they want to see be seen as defending that part of America.
The problem is the vast majority of Americans benefit from globalism in the form of deflation. The fact that now you could get a 4K uh, you know, 55 inch Amazon Fire TV for $399 is insane. We could never build that in small town America. It would cost us, you know, probably $3,000 just to make it and it would have to sell for $4,000.
It would be insane. I mean, we're talking about a factor of a 10 difference in pricing for solar panels, um, keyboards, mice, computers, hardware, chips. This is why we manufacture so much in Taiwan. the manufacturing is so much more advanced and and it's unfortunate and it's not to say that we don't want to help smaller town America.
It's just to say economically globalism helps cause deflation. So all of that aside, what's important to remember in this trade war is we are getting blasted by China for this tariff war and it's leading Donald Trump to walk back his aggression. Look at what China says here. China argues that the US unilateral actions have dealt a heavy blow to global market confidence, raising concerns that the two largest economies could once again slip into a trade war if the US claims a see or claims to seek dialogue while simultaneously escalating unilateral measures and resorting to fabricated justifications and trade bullying.
It would only deepen the trust deficit. This is, I think, why Donald Trump's already starting to taco. is like, "Ah, yeah, okay. We're going to have to I was a little too aggressive here." Of course, he's blaming Xiinping. But Trump was the aggressive one this weekend for sure. Friday, uh, China's trade and export control policies have always been highly transparent and predictable, and we remain open to trade applications, products intended for military.
Okay, we already talked about this with licensing. Uh, hypocritically criticize, the United States hypocritically criticizes China's normal regulatory measures, a clear US double standard. Uh, China says the United States or or somebody who used to be a a former China director at the uh NSC, the National Security Council, so an American says the United States is playing 2D chess while Beijing is playing 4D chess.
Uh, and so really what you're getting is this doubling down of China going, "Hey, like we don't want this trade war, but if you want to go, we'll go." And Trump's kind of like, "Maybe maybe we don't." Because, you know, if he doubled down on this trade war, we'd probably have a Black Monday. And I don't think he wants that.
And I think that's why he's already tacoing. So the taco trade is great for the stock market tomorrow. Now what this is opening a door to, which is kind of sad, but this is all opening a door to China now literally writing opeds. The Global Times editorial board writing opeds about how the US government sucks.
And what they're doing is they're saying that we're basically playing this judo judo match uh with our two-party system and that every week the shutdown goes on, we're shaving 0.1 to2% off of GDP. And this time is like the worst shutdown ever since 1976 where we've had more than 20 shutdowns because now, you know, you've got a shutdown where Donald Trump is front and center purposefully doing layoffs.
You know, he accidentally laid off a bunch of CDC scientists working on like measles research and then rescended that layoff. A that was a mistake. JD Vance was on face this n the nation this morning and he's like, "Uh, yeah. Um, that was a mistake." And it's Democrat's fault. It's Schumer's chaos. Uh, as far as why we accidentally laid off those people, but we are laying off others just to, you know, keep the government operating.
But in prior shutdowns, we've always been able to keep the government operating and we just temporarily furlow people. What's different this time, and China is making fun of us for it, is we're using the shutdown as an opportunity to literally fire people permanently. Uh, and so they literally say the two-party system was originally designed as a check and balance mechanism, but under trends of polarization, the system is turning into a self-consuming loop.
Multiple. So basically, they're saying like, see, look, the American experiment fails. Capitalism fails. American like American politics plus capitalism fails because you get a two-party system and nothing gets done and it turns into a selfserving loop of bull crap. Multiple factors including electoral redistricting, money-driven politics and a social media ecosystem have accelerated the entrenchment of extreme positions in the United States.
I I agree with this. Like I wholeheartedly agree that and this is why I you know I take a very neutral point of view in in America. Uh and the reason I do that is because I think vast majority of us are very neutral. The problem is it's it's just you're going to offend people on the far sides. Like I'm sorry to the you know small town person who's like oh but tariffs protect us.
They might protect 200,000 Americans but tariffs might protect 200,000 Americans at the cost of 20 million Americans. Right? So, so this is where you kind of have to like balance out like what are the costs here? Would it be better to provide stimulus to those 200,000 Americans and then let everybody else have lower prices for example, right?
Uh so that those are the debates to have and I think that's a neutral position rather than the entrenchment of extremes. I think China's right about that. Uh and and they argue that basically what we have in American politics is zero sum thinking that dominates people's political imagination. That's what it is.
It's well, you know, uh like everything that hurts everybody else I'm okay with as long as I don't get hurt. And then as soon as you get hurt, it's like, oh, this is this is wrong. Uh you know, there was actually a great video on this. I don't know that I'll be able to find it here quickly, but uh I will look for it.
There's a video uh it is ah here it is. Don't be a sucker, 1947. Okay, so I I'm not going to play this whole thing. I just encourage you to watch it because I want to talk about the market here. But uh it's this right here. It's don't be a sucker 1947 clip from anti-racist short film. And it's really interesting because if you play it uh what you'll find is these guys are at a political rally and there's this guy over here on the podium yelling about like how, you know, hey, we got to get the Negroes out or whatever.
And then you got, you know, a black guy in the audience who's like, man, what the hell, dude? This this is bull crap. Right. Uh, and then you've got uh over here you've got these guys talking uh and this guy's like, "Yeah, damn right. You know what? Like, hey, I'm a union worker. Like, anything to that that's going to help us." And then all of a sudden, the politician uh the guy up on the uh uh the podium or whatever, he starts going and you know who else we got to get out?
Those union workers. And then all of a sudden, the guy is like, "Wait, what? Now he's talking about me. This is bull crap. And then this guy leans over and he's like, "It hits different when he's talking about you, doesn't it?" And it's just like, it's so powerful. It's such a I mean, it's from 1947, so it's like super old school here, but it's such a powerful message.
Uh, and it's worth seeing cuz like that's how politics works. There are winners and losers, and wow, what a surprise when all of a sudden a politician wants to hurt you. You hate the politician. And this is kind of what China is starting to weaponize, right? But the the big thing out of today is, you know, Trump is going in the direction of taco, which is great for markets.
It probably means we're going to get a nice rebound. Now, we'll have a full strategy set up tomorrow morning in the meet Kevin Alpha report. So, we'll be talking about call options. We'll be talking volatility. Uh we'll be talking historic volatility to see where there are opportunities in options. So, if you want to be part of that, remember you can do so over at the uh Meet Kevin membership.
But uh it's it's worth remembering that it's not just this meet Kevin membership. Uh you could use coupon code Schumer Siesta. Uh but uh let's let's talk a little bit about bonds as well and what could happen broadly with chip stocks and otherwise and and just set some ideas up here. Uh quick heads up tomorrow.
Also, Investing Pro, not yet. Okay, not yet, but tomorrow investing pro is starting their flash sale again where you get 50% off plus 15%. So don't don't use it yet, but just be prepared for that. Really really great if you're into like fundamental analysis or even technical analysis. So we'll have some comments on that coming up.
But um yeah, let's think about this. So strategically, look um yields plummeted on Friday because there was some panic uh that we were going to get a resumption of a trade war. The assumption at this point uh is that the uh futures will turn green to offset a 3.5% decline on the NASDAQ and we'll get some kind of bounce back.
The aggressiveness on this bounceback will probably lead the 10-year yield to rise again. So my guess is and we'll see with futures in a few hours, but my guess is we'll probably see the 10 go back to like 4.10. I don't think it'll go all the way back to 4.15. And I think we'll see some modest green over here.
like maybe and honestly like modest in response to this could be like 80 bips up on the Q's which is actually on a normal day pretty damn good. Uh but uh you know seeing 80 bips maybe 120 bips on the cues totally reasonable on bounce back here. Remember though the market is now going to be primed for all the catalysts that we have coming up.
The CPI catalyst the October 31st and November 1st uh meeting potentially between Trump uh and China. So that's going to be catalyst. Fed meeting at the end of the month. Are we going to get the release of jobs data before the end of the month? All of those things are going to be catalysts that now the markets like plus earnings crap like Donald Trump's Friday tariff warning was sort of a warning shot where you know does it make sense to start going while we're at all-time highs.
Let's enjoy a little bit of a recovery here but we start taking money off the table until we get earnings to confirm everything's good. My opinion is we're probably gonna have a harder time now hitting some of these all-time highs while people are a little shell shocked. Yes, Taco is going to help us go green, which is fantastic.
But we are going into that era where all right now earnings are going to not only this quarter, but you know, really the forecast going forward are going to start telling us who's really going to be eating these tariffs. And so it's going to take some nuance to go through all these earnings. As usual, I'll be covering earnings as much as I can.
Uh, and uh, if if you want, I'm considering it. Uh, but if you want, leave a comment down below if uh, if I should go live for uh, earnings after the bell. I was thinking maybe we go uh live for earnings, cover the earnings, and then do little summary videos. Uh, I don't know if that's of interest to people.
I think most people like market open, but I thought I' I'd mention that. Uh, so this is uh, this is good. This is a good rundown so far as far as sort of like geopolitical news. Otherwise, you know, so far it looks like Israel is pulling back troops to be determined. You know, they're saying, "Hey, we're not going to pull back all the way unless we get all our hostages.
So, you know, we actually got to see all the details get worked out here, but so far so good." And you got to give Trump credit for that, you know. So, as much as like I like to poop on uh politicians, you got to give Trump credit for that upside down diplomacy he pulled off. That was that was impressive.
And it really sends a signal that, you know, Iran is eating bricks right now. Uh, and I don't even know if that's uh that's the right phrase to use there, but anyway, this gives you a little Sunday update. Uh, great news. And uh, folks, uh, thank you so much for watching. Remember, use coupon code Schumer Siesta if you want to join.
from the wildness in the stock market, check out the opportunities to invest and diversify into house hack backed by American Real Estate, great quality real estate. We do a great job remodeling our properties. You know, I was looking I drove by a rental the other day and and I'm like, what? $4,500.
And I'm looking at it, I'm like, dude, it's all like original 1970s stuff. This is disgusting. Like, how are you renting this out? Uh, and you know, I'm not going to mention names or put pictures up because I don't want to bag on anybody else, but let's just put it this way. House hack doesn't operate that way and we we provide quality products to to our tenants.
We we want to be America's best landlord. Uh and people need landlords. You know, I know sometimes people are like, "Oh, but you know, landlords are taking away a home from another." We're not taking away homes from anyone. We're taking empty homes most of the time or at least a lot of the time. Uh and we're renovating them into a quality property that people can rent.
Like there are like people are always going to rent. there are always going to be like 30 to 40% of Americans who like I need a rent because I might only be here for a year or two years or short term I'm not ready to buy or this that or whatever. It's like somebody's got to provide that service. I think sometimes people don't understand that but uh I think that's reasonable what I'm saying.
Uh, it's also fun to note that uh yesterday, and I love this. Uh, I I spent maybe I'll post some more pictures on my IG if you want to see this, but uh some of you have been following me on Instagram commenting on some of the uh real estate pictures that we're posting. Uh, but yesterday I spent like all day with Jack just going to different properties, working our renovations.
Uh, and I think it's so great because, you know, we'll go through our renovations. Uh, and we'll look at, hey, like, all right, here's what we got to do. Here's the checklist we got to do. We're bringing product. Dude, I threw so much crap in the back of the Cybert truck. It was crazy. Um I I even used this rack over here to deliver a vanity.
And sometimes people wonder, they're like, "Why are you doing this?" So the trick is if you go order stuff at Lowe's and you buy stuff for like four properties at a time, you get a much bigger discount than if you just ship everything directly to the properties, right? So, we're just like loading up on stuff and then I load up my garage at home with all the equipment and then I just bring it.
I mean, I'm not going to do that with like toilets or things that are like ridiculously heavy. Like over here's an example. We got toilets uh delivered. Uh so, you can't do it with everything, you know, and I'm not going to go buy like a giant trailer. But if I could go to a store and pick up like little junky stuff, I'm going to do that because I need to go to the properties to manage the renovations anyway.
You know what? My team does the same thing when when they're doing it versus me. You know, here's Jack and I picking up stuff at Lowe's and we're like, "Ah, we're missing a few exterior light fixtures or like the lights inside the garage, so we're going to go pick those up." Uh, and and I love it cuz I just put him to work and then when I put him to work, uh, you know, I make him go load everything and, you know, I pay him or whatever, of course, but I figure like, hey, like it's probably a good experience to learn.
Uh, and then of course after that, you know, I take him to uh to D&B as as just sort of a little end of the day reward. Uh, we're playing Down the Clown or Break the Plates. Those are some of our favorites over there. Of course, the freaking Down the Clown machine was broken again. This is what pisses me off about Dave and Busters.
They're spending all this money remodeling their restaurants, but the whole top row was broken on Down the Clown. How am I supposed to get the jackpot when the whole top row is broken? It's so freaking annoying. Uh but it's sort of classic. You know, here's just another house hack photo of uh you know what I like to do is when the painters are painting the interior of the property, we'll put out the baseboards.
So that way while they're already doing, let's say Swiss coffee semig gloss on the doors, they can paint the baseboards. And the benefit of this is when the flooring company comes, the baseboard's already painted. I don't have to paint them after the fact. Then I was joking a little bit with Jack. I'm like, "Bro, this house got a brand new air conditioner.
like we don't even have a brand new air conditioner. And I was teaching him a little bit about like how furnaces works. That's the old furnace over there. Uh and um you know, pretty excited about that. I'll give you an example of a kitchen over here, too. Obviously, you know, this is just all work in progress right here.
But I think this is beautiful. This white on white and timeless, too, which is which is really critical. Uh you know, work obviously all of these are works in progress. Uh but it's fun, you know. I love it. I'm teaching Jack about uh the different types of faucets. Uh when we're going looking at properties, I just use the meta glasses when I go through too because they sort of become my checklist of of things to do or things that I want to see.
We even went through um a moldy home yesterday which we loved uh with like they literally had the mold contamination sign and everything. This was it. And we just started playing football in the back. So, uh whatever, man. you know, like we'll go to your we'll go to your moldy open house. This was it.
Uh I don't have video unfortunately of the mold part, but they uh you could see sort of like a lot of the walls have been removed and then they've got their contamination uh fans going over here and it smells pretty stinky. So, I have P100s and stuff in the truck, too, for when we stay in these puppies longer.
But, uh I said I wouldn't show it, but this was pissing me off. I was looking at this uh this rental and I'm like, "Bro, I really I shouldn't show this picture because it's got the house number there, but uh you know, maybe I h whatever." But I'll just I'll just show this. Like this is the zooming down under the house number.
This is the the front of it. And I'm like, "What the heck? You've got weeds, dead plants, the grass looks like crap. The paint job looks like crap. this is like super ghetto looking, you know, front over here. Like everything about this is just like trash. And I'm like, nah, that's just not how hack operates, you know.
We we we want we want our tenants to like the property they live in. Uh and and we think that actually keeps tenants longer. For example, one of the things we're doing is we're actually using a different flooring now. And so we're going to be doing a lecture actually probably right after I film this in the uh property management and rental renovations course.
and I'm going to be revealing this new flooring that we have uh in addition to like new ceiling fans and stuff like that that we're using. But um this flooring is actually a little bit more expensive than what we've been used to using because the uh previous material that we used, which was about a dollar cheaper per square foot, it actually uh I don't think the longevity is that great.
After about 3 years, we're starting to see some buckling on, you know, some of the edges of the plates. That's probably just because the surface is a little thinner. And so we'll be having a conversation about the uh you know cost versus benefits of that and I'll be revealing the material that we're using exactly uh in addition to like where to save money and where not to save money like for example these you know ceiling fans.
And of course I go around and I just shake my head because then I see little things like this that drive me nuts. I'm like are you kidding me electrician? Are you kidding me? The damage to the I was like it's fine but now I got to fix it. So, it's all right, you know, little things like that. Uh, but that's my job, you know.
I also, just for giggles, I put up a new um American flag yesterday, which I thought was beautiful. Uh, the uh the old one was uh very I wasn't very tattered. You know, I tried to replace them like every 6 months. Uh, and then of course, while I was up there, I'm like, you know what? May as well give the the camera a little squeegee, you know?
You just got to get stuff done. You got to get SH19 done. You know, I also heard your comments yesterday. You know, a lot of you are like, Evan, the children on the side are distracting. Uh, so I I won't do children on the side anymore, unless we're um specifically referencing the children. But look at these little cute children.
This is all with the meta glasses. Uh, I love this stuff, you know. I I just think it's a great way to connect with the children in the f like not the biggest fan of Mark Zuck. In the future, that'll all be different. But uh you know in terms of options uh there'll be so many companies to choose from.
But anyway, that gives you my little Sunday update. I hope you enjoyed it. Uh join the Me Kevin membership over at me.com. Check out Houseackag over at househag.com. And good luck tomorr.
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