There's a growing world economy with pockets of negativity: Ken Fisher

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결론: 2019년은 작년 말 조정 이후 주식시장이 상승할 가능성이 크며, 바닥은 이미 지나간 것으로 본다. 시장 반등 근거: 과거 S&P 500 조정 이후 12개월 평균 수익률은 약 34%이며, 작년의 밸류에이션 축소는 다음 해 확장으로 이어지는 경우가 많다. 대통령 임기 3년차 효과: 1939년 이후 매년 상승했고 평균 약 17% 상승했다. 수익률 곡선 역전: 과거 역전 후 경기침체가 없었던 4번의 사례 모두 두 자릿수(15% 이상) 상승을 기록했다고 주장한다. 다만 시장에서는 이를 부정적 신호로 보는 시각도 있다고 언급한다. 나쁜 해 다음 해 효과: 세계적 경기침체나 세계대전이 없다면 시장 부진의 다음 해는 대체로 좋은 해였다. 글로벌 경기: 주요국 선행지수(LEI)와 PMI 대부분이 성장 국면이며, 전 세계의 약 85%가 성장 중이고 15%만 부진하다. 중국·유럽 둔화가 있더라도 미국 경제와 주식시장은 버틸 수 있다고 본다. 정부 셧다운: 장기 셧다운 이후 12개월 뒤 수익률은 두 자릿수 플러스였다고 언급하며, 셧다운 자체의 단기 영향에 대해서는 예측을 피했다. 밸류에이션: 이익이 늘어나는 가운데 높은 밸류에이션은 문제가 되지 않는다는 입장이다. 리스크: 세계적 경기침체 또는 세계대전이 발생하지 않는다는 전제가 붙어 있다. 시장이 기대만큼 V자 반등을 보이지 않은 점은 아쉬움으로 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 2019년은 매우 행복한(긍정적인) 해가 될 것이라고 낙관한다.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you said you were optimistic about 2019 it's going to look a lot different than the end of last year so is that it have we seen the bottom are you willing to go there I'm pretty sure we've seen the bottom I'm a little disappointed in how the markets gone up in the last few weeks it hasn't gone up as strongly as I'd like I've been expecting kind of the V concept I talked to you about last weekend before and written about and fundamentally it's been a little less steep in that but there's so many reasons that stock should rise this year and I don't have the next seven and a half hours that I need to cover all of them but the fact of the matter is you know we could rather do the point after point after point this should be a very happy year so what if it is the top couple of reasons why we should rally we had a correction the aftermath of Corrections on average in the history of the S&P 500 thirty-four percent in the next 12 months the fact is we had valuation contraction last year obviously every year when you've had valuation contraction the next year you get valuation expansions so unless earnings fall you get a positive year we've got the third year of a president's term I've talked about here before which has been positive every year since 1939 and averages positive 17 percent but you can go on and on Oh some people believe which I don't really that we've had a yield curve inversion but if you look at yield curve inversions as formally defined in the past you got four of them where there was a yield curve inversion without a subsequent recession and the fact of the matter is they're all positive and they're all double-digit positive actually all over 15% that you can go on and on and on and on the aftermath of bad years for the market is good years unless you get a global recession or you get a world war and neither one of those are in the cards let me just go back to one more point real fast look at le eyes around the world and look at p.m.

02. eyes around the world and people poke at negatives but the fact is that's what the sentiment is looking for negatives overall the overwhelmingly positive speaking to growth does it concern you at all that the government is still shut down with seemingly no end in sight I love that you asked that question oh by the way look at the aftermath twelve months later of government shutdowns it's particularly the long ones are double-digit positives the fact is the fears in the market now I don't want to speak to what happens in the next few days or weeks about government shutdown another clue but the aftermath of all of these government shutdowns you can lay them all out and the aftermath is positive in the long ones super positive exactly you get through the the rest of it for now what do you think about their growth global growth outlook and if we do see a slowdown in other international markets that that's China or Europe do you think the US economy and stock market can shrug that off let me go back to that again if you look at le eyes in China and le eyes in Europe they're strong high and positive they bounce around a little and trying to be too precise about little bounces is a wrongheaded way to do it but if you just look at the leading economic index as a pan-european they're strong if you look at the PM is in the countries where they're individually weakest the PM eyes are strong we have a growing world with minor pockets of negativity but most of it eighty-five percent of its growing 15 percent of its not and the 85 percent will pull the other 15% and if it only pulls it this much instead of that much it's still positive and in a world where people are looking for the negative that's enough that's all you need higher valuations with rising earnings is plenty you