원문 보기
hey guys what's up welcome it is the impeccable investor here in today's video we're going over why Michael burry is predicting the index fund bubble now again guys we're going to go over what exactly he's saying here why it makes sense and if it's actually something you should be worried about all right guys let's get into the first clip here and we'll discuss more about this B's zero double B's zero triple B's zero and then that happens what is that that's America's housing market in this clip of the big short it shows how Michael burry predicted the 2008 housing market crash this is a great movie that shows exactly how these investors knew exactly what was going to happen but Michael burry knew exactly what was happening in the housing market way before it actually happened he thought it would even happen as early as 2007 but it didn't actually happen till 2008 that's how far ahead his predictions were well does that actually hold any weight with this new index fund bubble hypothesis well let's actually look into that here in just a quick sec as stated by CNBC Michael burry of the Big Short which is the clip I just showed you it says that he's found another market bubble alright guys he's saying that passive investments are inflating these stocks and bonds prices and a similar way to 2008 with the mortgages alright guys she's also saying like most bubbles the longer it goes up the worse the crash will be so is that something that should scare you well let's get into that real quick and explain what's going on all right to start off you need to understand what an index fund is and ndex fund examples include the S&P 500 the Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ of the russell 2000 and so much more these are index funds which means they are a fund that holds a bunch of different stocks for instance the S&P 500 tracks the performance of the top it says 500 here but if I thought it was around 502 but the point is these funds track at the top performing so many number of stocks for instance the Dow Jones tracks the top largest US firms so if you can see here each thing is tracking all this these different stocks so again you're not investing when when he's saying an index fund bubble he's saying that the fund is related to all these indexes not necessarily to individual stocks but now that you know what an index is it's just something that tracks a bunt a bunch of stocks you'll be able to understand when we go into why this is an index fund bubble that he's discussing all right to understand this more you need to understand the difference between active and passive equity flows so basically you have fund managers the hedge funds the money managers the people who do a lot of big-name stuff like Wall Street ok there's two different ways that they invest your funds either they actively invest in individual stocks or they invest in indexes and ex's have a return of 9.8 percent over the past 90 years that they've been on the stock market so that's why a lot of people go with passive funds because it just it's it's an easy way to do it you put your money in it and long term it goes up right you don't have to worry that you're picking one bad stock ok well if you can see here the white portion of this picture it's from all the passive equity funds so people who are putting their money and from passive forms like an index fund the red is the money that's leaving from individual stocks so what is this showing you're showing that more money is going into index funds then into individual stocks well why is this a problem well I'm actually about to show you why as you can see the pde ratio is what is being effect effect adhere when people invest solely in the index fund so what's happening is when people invest in a single stock the stock price rises because it's a good buy because more people are investing in it however when people put their money in an index fund what that fund does once it gets that money from the investor it goes out and buys more shares more holdings of the companies that it holds so these stock prices are being raised because they're being bought from the index fund that means that the stock price may not actually be increasing because it's a good buy because investors want it but because the index fund is receiving more money needs to allocate that money to those stocks I know this doesn't this may be going over your head so let me simplify it a bit the p/e ratio shows if a stock is overvalued or undervalued based on the stock price and the earnings so the price of these companies especially the tech companies are starting to increase massively and is not because of their earnings not because the company is good but because the index funds are investing in them because they have more people investing in index funds so what this is how happening is we are seeing indexes raise the price of stocks our two fish are artificially because we don't actually know what's going on here the side price isn't rising because it's natural it's rising because index funds are making it happen so let's talk about the implications of this bubble right here and how it actually affects you again if you're liking this video please leave a thumbs up and subscribe because I have so much more content coming down the next video will actually be over what Michael buries stock portfolio looks like even though he's predicting this bubble alright guys so what are the implications of a stock market crash well let's get a quick look at the flash crash of 2000 and now people are trading out out through the video now you're gonna get a local breakup 1103 even guys sorry of those two loud are exciting but when the stock market crashes everyone gets hyped up because people are losing their retirement they're losing investment accounts they have they're losing so much money and that's something that we want to prevent you from so let's discuss it does this actually hold waiting are you actually going to be affected by this index fund crash well as we discuss here I'm going to discuss in a second that it actually doesn't really matter because it's just how the stock market works so let's get into that right now all right guys what I think is that the index funds are a way to make money in the stock market right there are a way to diversify your portfolio holdings in an easy simple way these stocks are always going to be overpriced or underpriced at certain times in the market just based on bull runs and bear runs well at the moment we've been on a 10-year bullish run meaning that these stocks have been increasing in price for the past 10 years since 2008 over time you have to see a progression of bull markets and bear markets and bull markets in bear markets and again it's just natural for the stock market to see that decline will we see a bear market in 2020 well no one knows again guys you can watch the 200-day moving average to get you a precursor to understand if it's about to happen but again you never know so basically what this guy's saying is index funds are leading the way for a bubble but what I am saying is it's just a natural progression of movement you don't have to take my opinion I'm not obviously a professional I haven't predicted the 2008 crash but to be honest I wasn't even old enough to know what the 2008 crash was really happening but what we can learn learn from this is that we need to be safe and understanding the fundamentals of a company we need to make sure not to invest with cotton and companies that have high p/e ratios and if we're in index funds we need to make sure that we're monitoring the price at which it is if it starts to drop massively and stocks are seeing that nice pull down then we may want to look for other places to put our money say say for Holdings that won't be affected by this index fund purchase stocks like that are the dividend kings investing in individual stocks that have products that people will need will need to buy regardless of its if if it's a recession or not for instance you're looking at like Walmart Procter & Gamble all those companies they produce goods they sell goods that everyone needs to buy regardless of what the economy is doing alright guys if you have and that subscribe button and turn on those alerts our next video is going to be over what does Michael burries portfolio actually look like
Comments 0