저자: JoseMayer · 외국인
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Howard Marks 최신 메모 'What Really Matters' 요약: 매크로 예측·변동성·샤프비율은 개인투자자에게 중요하지 않고, 진짜 중요한 것은 상승장 초과수익이 하락장 초과손실보다 큰 '수익의 비대칭성'이다. [매크로 예측] 금리·인플레이션 같은 거시지표가 주가에 미치는 영향을 일관되게 예측하는 것은 불가능하며, 주가는 기대와 현실의 차이로 움직여 심리 예측도 어렵다고 주장. [투자자 성과 평가] DALBAR 자료를 인용해 투자자 평균수익이 시장 평균에 못 미친다고 언급. 단일 분기·1년 성과로 투자자 실력을 판단하는 것은 한 경기로 선수 기량을 평가하는 것과 같아 부적절하다고 설명. [샤프비율·변동성] 샤프비율은 위험을 가격 변동성으로 잘못 정의한 지표이며, 장기투자자라면 기업을 잘 알 경우 주가 하락에 전략을 바꿀 필요가 없어 변동성은 무시해도 된다고 설명. [비대칭성] 상승장 초과수익이 하락장 초과손실보다 커야 우수한 투자자라는 기준을 제시. 발언자는 이 기준에 따라 캐시 우드(ARKK)를 예로 들어 2020.3~2021.3 상승장에서 S&P500 대비 약 100%p 초과수익, 2022년 하락장에서 약 40%p 초과손실로 비대칭성이 양호하다고 평가. 다만 이는 2022년 초 시점의 과거 분석이며 시장 전망 발언은 없음. [결론] 개인투자자의 강점은 단기 성과에 흔들리지 않는 인내심이라고 강조하며, 메모 작성자 Marks는 고령에도 성장투자·암호화폐 관점을 바꾸는 유연성이 있는 투자자라고 평가.
다듬은 글
hey everyone my name is Jose Mayer I'm founder and CEO of stock card and today I want to summarize the key takeaways and learnings from Howard Mark's latest memo what really matters in my opinion Howard marks is one of the best investors you can follow and learn from he has this great habit of summarizing his thoughts and learnings from what's happening in the current market in his memos a lot of good investors have the same habit of writing about their thoughts Warren Buffett does that in his annual shareholder letters as we all know but something very special and different about Howard marks at 76 years old and more than 2 billion dollars in net worth he has no reason to keep learning and change his mind and ideas about the world but he does it anyway he has changed his mind about gross investing although he's been a value investor especially in bonds distress bonds for many years he even changed his thoughts and ideas and her perceptions about cryptocurrencies that's why every time his memo lands in my inbox I'll make sure to put everything aside on the same day and read and learn from his memo so today without any further Ado let's get to the takeaways from his latest memo how are the starts this memo by talking about things that do not matter the first thing that he talks about is that macro predictions macro factors like inflation rate he believes there is no way anyone can consistently forecast the direction of macro indicators and even more importantly their impact on the stock market and stock prices he believes even professionals don't do a good job at predicting and interpreting the results of those macro factors on the stock market that's why he believes number one that doesn't matter to individual investors is trying to learn and predict the impact of macro factors on the stock market Howard argues that the reason we should not worry about the macro factors and their impact on the stock market is that no one has been able to consistently predict us and the reason no one has been able to consistently predict the impact of micro factors on the stock prices is that in the short term based on Howard point of view stock market prices are the result of the difference between the reality and the expectation of the investors we've seen this in companies earnings results we've seen the company's Revenue go up but the stock price goes down after an earnings report and it's always about what investors expected to see in that earnings report and what really happens that's why Howard believes it is very difficult to guess the difference between the expectation and reality and it's all driven by psychology and no one can predict the overall Market psychology on a consistent way he also brings some good facts and statistics from dalbar Institute and that in the past for many many years every time the average return of investors is convert to the average return of the market every day investors on average have underperformed the market so he says over the history of the stock market if you've never been able to over perform the market that should tell us something about our ability to predict the impact of macro factors on the stock market prices in the short term Howard then continues that individual investors like you and I should not worry about the short-term results of our portfolios he explains that in let's say sports if we want to gauge the athletic quality of an athlete we never just look at one game the results of that one game to say if this athlete is good or not and he brings that analogy back to investing and says trying to predict the quality of an investor based on the result of their portfolio in one quarter or in one year is as similar as trying to gauge the quality of an athlete based on just one game that means we should not make a quality decision based on the results of one quarter or one year portfolio so if someone have made a great killing during the GameStop frenzy or if someone has a fantastic portfolio during the latest bull market before the 2022 that doesn't mean that person is a grading master and specifically if you are aggressive enough and if the market is rallying those aggressive behavior results into higher return and as individual investors when we want to fund those people who we want to follow we should be mindful of that fact Howard Marx continues his Memo by bringing up the second things that he thinks it doesn't matter when it comes to investing he believes that Sharpie ratio Sharpie ratio is a risk adjusted return formula that a lot of investors use in order to evaluate the risk adjusted return or potential of an equity or Bond or overall stock market and Howard believes it doesn't matter to pay attention to Sharpie ratio although a lot of financial media and even professionals use that the reason Howard Marx believes that Sharpie ratio doesn't matter is because he believes the definition of the risk that we use in calculating Sharpie ratio is wrong Howard says if you invest in a bond for example the risk is not the volatility in the price of that Bond the risk is that if that companies that issued Bond goes Bank carbon would not be able to cover its liabilities as such if you calculating a sharp ratio of that Bond asset by taking its return and dividing it by the volatility of that asset price you're basically using a wrong definition of risk therefore Howard marks believe sharper ratio is not an indicator of risk and it's not something that the investors should pay attention to continuing on the same chain of thoughts Howard believes that paying attention to volatility is a useless activity or basically volatility doesn't matter he argues that if you've done your homework and invested in a company on an asset that you truly understand the fact that the stock price is going down should not change your strategy about that company therefore for long-term investors volatility should not matter and in times like this in 2022 as the stock prices are crashing down he believes that long-term investors should not worry at all because volatility is among things that they should not worry about and does not impact their overall return in the future so here let me pause on Howard Mark's memo and tell you about what my point of view is here I've always believed and actually I've learned this from Howard marks that investors as individual investors we need to figure out what our Edge is over professionals fund managers and even algorithms because we don't have bosses who every quarter come to us and say show me your portfolio's return show me how you over perform the market every quarter we have this unique advantage that we can close our portfolios and not to worry about our quarterly returns or even annual returns that is our Edge over every professional investor even an algorithm our Edge is our patience and ability not to look at our portfolio return during the market downfall now back to Howard Mark's memo this section is one of the favorite sections I've ever read and Howard Mark's memos he talks about how can we age the quality of an investor it can be us ourselves or it can be a Creator a YouTuber we're following or even someone that we don't know or a celebrity that we want to follow and listen to their advice he talks about this concept of asymmetry in return so let's talk about that and let's understand what Howard marks explains I'll assure you at the end of this section I want to take you through an example and prove to you that Howard marks actually believes Cassie wood the founder and CEO and CIO of art invest is one of the best investors we've ever come across even though her return in the latest yeah is not uh as glorious as it was was and actually really really worse than the market so stay tuned first we want to talk about Howard's definition of asymmetry and how he would evaluate equality of an investor and then we'll get to Kathy Wood and use her example to decide whether she's a good investor or not so let's Imagine One exam sample investor he or she has 10 return over the market during the market rally so the portfolio is returning 10 more than the stock market during the market rise and the same portfolio uh underperforms the market by 10 during the markets crash now so this person although during the good times have been over performing the market but during the bad time also we've been on the Performing the market with a roughly same amount so this is the definition of an average investor an average investor that has no over performance over the market because he or she is underperforming the market with the same amount that he or she has been over performing in a market during the market rallies so this is one example now only if your over performance of the market during Market rallies is bigger than your on their performance during a market crash you can be a better than averaging master so for example if the market has been growing by 10 during the times that the market is in the upward Trend and you and you're over performing the market by an additional 10 so your return has been 20 percent only if you return during a market downturn is less than those additional 10 is that you're actually a better investor than average and that's what uh Howard marks defines an asymmetry so your over performance is higher than your underperformance during the market uh rallies and market downturn so that is an estimatory of Return of course in an ideal situation you would want to follow and become actually an investor who can over perform the market both during the time that the market is up trending and during the time that is Market down training so you would want ideally in an ideal word to always stay in the green and always have a better performance than the market but Howard says if you ever come across an investor like that tell me about that person call me and let me know who that person is I guess it's the sort of an instead joke as saying that he's never been coming across someone who can consistently overperform the market during the uptrend and downtrend so if you've been following my role with our CEO portfolio you know that I'm a big believer in kathywood but because I believe in the quality of research category does and her team of course supporting her uh as the ETF has started to move downwards from its all-time high sometime in 2022 I started to adding more and more to my positions I was very excited about uh doing this exercise with Kathy Wood's return so the first period is March 30th 2020 to March 30th 2021 and the S P 500 during this time period have gained more than a 50 percent if you look at arkk's return during the same period the return is more than 156 so during the market uptrend arkk Kathy Woods Flagship ETF uh performed the SMP 500 by more than 100 percentage point now let's go during the period of downward trend for this a period of time I took the return of the S P 500 for 2022 a year to date so from the start of the year uh to the date that I was doing this research which is a few days back at the market has lost more than 19 the market has lost more than 19 and during the same time period Ark has lost almost 60 percent so compared to 19 to the 60 percent uh drop in between S P 500 and arkk and you realize the arkk has underperformed the market by a little bit more than 40 percent now let's compare during the market rally the ETF overperformed the S P 500 by more than 100 and during the Market downturn arkk ETF underperform the market but 40 percent Kathy Woods arkk based on this example has the estimatory of return it is able to over perform the market almost two times bigger than the underperformance of the market and that tells me and proves to me that Howard marks believe Kathy Wood is an excellent investor so with that I want to summarize what we've learned Howard marks is one of the best investors we came across the reason for that is that like many good investors he summarizes his thoughts and learnings on a regular basis but he's also a little bit better than some of those uh older investors he actually has the ability to change his minds and his strategy about growth investing or cryptocurrencies even though he's a wealthy investor and he's the sort of older and he doesn't really need to change his mind he's already achieved it and succeeded in the world of investing his latest memo is called what really matters and he starts this memo by talking about things that really don't matter first and the the few things that he talked about that really don't matter are the macro factors like what Fred would do and what the inflation rate would be and the reason he believes it doesn't matter is that no one can consistently predict the impact of these macro factors on the stock market prices that's why it's a useless exercise he believes volatility doesn't matter especially if you're a long-term investor and if you can basically ignore the volatility in your portfolio you'll be better off he also believes that Sharpie ratio which is a way of calculating researches that a return of a portfolio is useless because the definition or the formula of Sharpie ratio is the return divided by risk of the asset or the portfolio you're investing and he believes that the way we Define risk in modern finances and right right way of defining risk and he believes that's what sharper ratio is not a critical map factor that we should pay attention to and then he also wrap up his Memo by talking about what really matters which is the asymmetry of return and he defines asymmetry of return as the difference between Market over performance during the upward Trend and the market on their performance during a downward Trend you are a good investor and what really matters if having an asymmetry in your portfolio if you can over perform the market bigger amount than even your underperforming in the market during the downturn there you have it folks that's a summary of my key takeaways and learning from Howard Mark's latest memo and as always if you want to help us spread the world of intelligent long-term investing like and share this video And subscribe to the channel including the Bell so that the Google or YouTube algorithm knows the content will create it's valuable and help us become available to more intelligent long-term investors across YouTube thank you very much for watching I will be back with another episode of thunderbagger stock analysis series sometime later in the week stay tuned and I'll see you then
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