저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼은 중국 경제의 구조적 리스크(위안화 방어 부담, 신용·주식시장 불안)를 우려하지만 장기적으로는 중국 소비 성장과 주식 장기 강세를 낙관한다. 거시·중국: 중국은 지나치게 강한 통화를 유지하려 하면서 경제가 그만큼 좋지 않아 압박을 받고 있다. 최근 소폭의 위안화 절하가 더 큰 절하의 시작일 수 있으며, 통화정책 수단이 제한되면 일본식 잃어버린 10년 위험이 있다. 2008년 같은 위기인지는 모르지만 상당한 경기침체 가능성이 있다. 외환보유액이 한 달 새 약 960억 달러 줄었다는 질문에 대해서는 중국 지표를 직접 언급하지 않았다. 중국 주식시장: 과도한 신용거래 장려와 붕괴하는 거품 관리 시도, 주식 매도 제한 및 공매도 세력 기소는 투자자 신뢰를 훼손했다. 다만 중국인의 역량과 기업가 정신은 높이 평가하며, 장기적으로는 중국에 강세 견해를 유지한다. 종목·포지션: 2분기 실적은 중국 등 요인으로 부진했으나 포지션은 변경하지 않았다고 밝혔다. 하워드휴즈(HHH)는 주가가 하락해도 자사주 매입 기회로 활용해 장기 가치가 높아진다고 보며, 시포트 등 개발 자산 가치를 강조했다. 캐나디안퍼시픽도 자사주 매입을 활발히 하고 있다고 언급했다. 소비재: 몬델리즈는 중국 중산층 간식 수요에 따른 장기 성장 시장으로 보며 포지션을 유지한다. 최근 유로·파운드 노출 덕분에 환율 측면에서 개선될 것으로 봤다. 행동주의: 맥도날드 사례처럼 매장을 가맹점에 매각하고 브랜드·부동산 로열티 회사로 전환하는 전략을 설명했다. 버거킹이 3G 인수 후 이 계획을 따라 성과를 냈다고 언급했다. 다든(Darden) 사례는 잘 모른다고 답했다. 정책·기타: 최저임금 인상에는 찬성하지만 대폭 인상은 고용과 자동화 투자에 영향을 줄 수 있어 신중해야 한다고 봤다. 고빈도매매는 단기 변동성을 키우지만 장기 투자자에게는 오히려 기회라고 보았다.
다듬은 글
starting today our exclusive conversation with the world's most successful hedge fund manager at the close of last year Pershing Square capital of 40% as compared to the S&P 500 14% game so far this year most managers have been hurt too by volatility Bill Ackman included the fund was down at 9% as the S&P 500 it felt 6% Bill Ackman stated China as one of the reasons why I asked him if he's changing any of heavens investments based on China's slowdown China has some real issues I think they're trying to maintain an overly strong currency while their economy is not doing nearly as well and that makes it very difficult for them to use the kind of tools we use to recover in China's at risk of going through its own version I don't know if it's 2008 but it could have a fairly big recession and without monetary policy tools you know you could have a Japan like Lost Decade so I think they're under a fair amount of pressure this recent small devaluation could be the beginning of a larger one I think they could solve a lot of their problems by letting their currency depreciate and I think ultimately that's where they're gonna end up how much do you let the markets and what we've seen is extreme volatility affect the way you make decisions has almost no impact unless something we own or something we want to buy it becomes interesting because the price moved up and down I mean I think there's there's a huge amount of capital that's relatively short-term you know obviously you talk about high-frequency trading but even just you know general trading oriented capital people trying to make money every day every week every month and that kind of trend following money can cause fairly dramatic moves and markets and in short periods of time speaking of China I mean Mondelez does have some exposure selling snacks the idea is selling snacks to a growing middle class and you are an investor in Mondelez so does that make you rethink that position no no I mean China is gonna be a very long-term growth market for Mondelez it's not a place where it's not a particularly meaningful component of revenues today it is one of the faster growing markets and things like chewing gum ultimately chocolate and some of these sort of treats that middle-class people like I mean I think the Chinese economy in order to long-term be successful will need to develop more consumption this is sort of a luxury small ticket consumption it's the kind of thing I think would do very well in China over the long term not particularly affected by any of the things that are happening now actually interestingly you know we were looking at recently Mondelez sort of portfolio of occurrence exposures and in the last month or so we think that actually things would improve for them because of exposure to the euro exposure to the British pound for example and relatively smaller exposures in Asia well when you speaking about currency Iran actually yesterday Monday China the FX reserves were down something like ninety six billion dollars do you ever think China only has two years before it runs out of money and this could be the next subprime I don't know about that subprime look I'll start with saying that Chinese people are extremely bright incredibly motivated really you know remarkably entrepreneurial if they I would be a very long term bull on China I do think they've made some mistakes in the short term and the way they managed in some ways managed upward the stock market so the most promoting speculation margin lending and then attempting to manage a imploding bubble I think that's not been a great doesn't build a lot of confidence for an investor to find out that the stocks they own and they can't sell and and prosecuting short sellers things like that do not inspire a lot of a lot of confidence because long long term I'm I'm bullish on China you're the second quarter numbers were tough for you as they were for from numerous hedge fund managers and you did cite China as part of that reason but you're saying long term you're a bowl you're not concerned you're not changing anything based off that no we did not do anything we didn't change our we didn't sell Howard Hughes because of stock market downturn a quarter which brings us back to the original we own great companies we focus on what's going in on the underlying businesses and the businesses we own I would say even in the month of August became more valuable these are companies that almost every day become more valuable you know the Seaport right big announcement today with John George I mean this is really just the beginning of what's going to become you know one of the most important assets of the company that asset is more valuable today than it was yesterday you know the stock market could assign a higher or a lower value to Howard Hughes in the short term and generally that's an opportunity you know the company had an opportunity to buy back about ten percent of the company from its shareholders when the stock was 72 a couple years ago you know it was a good purchase the short term the stock market you opportunities to buy back more of your company an attractive price the in Canadian Pacific has a very active stock buyback program that stocks gone from a high of 240 to something in the high 180s 190s company's been pretty active in you know buying out the partners who are more skeptical and so I think the you know what's nice about a public company is they'll be brief moments of people having losing confidence or maybe not so much in the business but just selling because of fear those you know for businesses who long-term retire their shares that's a good thing the business will become more valuable over time so in that way it provides opportunity for you and even long-term opportunity maybe the market is under valuing an asset and that provides you with an entry point sure with Howard Hughes and this long-term activism there are other activists who are looking at retail properties and I'm thinking of Darden which has gotten a lot of attention spinning some intreat I know you pressured McDonald's 2005 ended up dropping it how do you see star board for example with Darden do you think that they're doing a good job what do you see when you survey the landscape I don't know the Darden story that well but I will say just going back to McDonald's what we push McDonald's to do was to sell their stores to the franchisees and become a pure real estate what we call it brand royalty company so what McDonald's would simply own the brand and the real estate and you know rent those stores and collecting a royalty from the franchisees McDonald's took a couple of steps in that direction and our goals were not purely financial they were operational in franchisees are much better operators of stores because you know you only five stores and then you live in the community and you it's your whole net worth you worked very differently in those store than perhaps someone spending six months from the Donnell parent company hoping to get to corporate after a stint in the stores what's interesting is that Burger King which was acquired by 3G adopted our plan from McDonald's very explicitly in fact they called me when they bought the business and they said look Bill we're going to take your McDonald's plan we're really going to implement it and they've done a remarkable job turning around Burger King which was really a you know years and years and years same store sales now they're there they're leading you know I think with respect to Darden I mean the true test of a shareholder activist is not you know presenting an idea in convincing company it's ultimately and I have a lot of respect for someone stepping in buying a stake you know becoming chairman of the board and and I wish them a lot of luck with the company but it seems like you know from I'm not it's kind of small for us to having focused on it closely but focusing on you know how hot the breadsticks are when they brought to the table or whatever their various initiatives are I mean it sounds like they're digging into the nitty-gritty of the company speaking of nitty-gritty where do you stand on on minimum wage there have been numerous cities who have raised it obviously there's a been a populist outcry sure look up the number one I'm all in favor of people who earning middle Quest's minimum wage type wages making more money I'm a bit wary about making large changes in minimum wage in terms of impact on employment you know I think many of the you know the typical minimum wage job the Burger King job someone you know 17 years old 18 you know going to Burger King but you know those are entry-level jobs but you can make 90 100 hundred ten thousand dollars being a manager of a burking store and the way you get there is by starting out at the bottom and making your way up I think you know you move increase minimum wages by 50 percent it does encourage companies to start it becomes economical to spend money on automation and other things so it's I'm very much in favor of people earning minimum wage is making more it's hard to make a living on a you can't it's very difficult to live on a minimum wage but if it's a point of entry and you work hard and you can become assistant store manager and store manager it's it's an entry point into the marketplace and and so it's a it's a complicated question I don't know the well especially in certain urban centers it makes more more sense than than in others you mentioned high-frequency trading we spoke with Mark Cuban who was very vocal actually and said this is causing a lot of volatility it's actually causing it it's not just exacerbating it what is your position on it I think it's too hard to know I didn't ask Brad Katsuyama yeah he knows okay volatility is the friend of the long-term investor and the and potentially the friend of a good short-term trader but I don't know that many good short-term traders find out why Bill Ackman does not invest in most tech companies and why he is making a big bet on a famous part of New York
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