저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
요약 보기
데이비드 테퍼는 2023년 주식시장에 대해 약세(숏) 입장을 밝혔으며, 이는 그가 주로 롱 베팅으로 돈을 벌어온 투자자라는 점에서 의미가 크다고 영상은 강조한다. 테퍼가 CNBC 인터뷰에서 든 첫 번째 근거는 연준이 아직 할 일이 많다는 점이다. 금융여건이 충분히 긴축되지 않았고, 모기지 금리는 채권시장 되돌림으로 내려왔으며, 정크본드 스프레드도 낮아져 위험선호가 되살아났고, 10년물 금리도 하락해 주식에 도움이 되고 있다고 봤다. 두 번째 근거는 중앙은행들이 매우 매파적이라는 점이다. 연준은 금리 인상 의지를 분명히 했고, 전 세계적으로 유례없는 긴축(금리 인상·양적긴축)이 진행 중이며, 인플레이션은 정점에서 내려왔지만 연준 목표 2%와는 거리가 멀다고 보았다. 세 번째 근거로 테퍼는 채권 숏 포지션을 언급했다. 채권 숏은 금리가 계속 오를 것이라는 베팅이며, 이는 연준이 말한 대로 실제로 긴축할 것이라는 그의 시각과 맞닿아 있다. 그는 주식에 대해서도 숏 쪽으로 기울어 있다고 밝혔다. 네 번째로 시장 밸류에이션(PER)이 너무 높다고 지적했다. S&P500 PER은 약 18배로, 2009년 저금리 시기의 약 12배와 비교된다. 예시로 주당순이익 225달러에 16배를 적용하면 지수 약 3,600선이 나오며 현재 약 3,800선보다 낮다. 현재 이익 190달러 기준, 이익 성장 5%(약 200달러)에 16배를 적용하면 약 3,200선으로 현재 대비 약 16% 하락 여지가 있다고 계산했다. 영상은 이를 앞선 영상의 시나리오 3(고금리 장기화와 경기침체 우려)과 연결하며, 높은 채권 수익률이 주식과 경쟁하고 경기침체 위험이 남아 있어 현 시점에서 롱은 최선이 아니라고 결론짓는다. 발언자는 '개인적 의견'이라고 덧붙였다. 리스크 및 조건: 경기침체가 2023년에 실제로 오고 연준이 피벗하는지 여부가 핵심 변수로 제시됨. 채널은 유료 멤버십 홍보도 포함. 출연자 전망: 데이비드 테퍼 — S&P500 약세(숏 기울기), 채권 숏, 금리 상승 지속 전망.
다듬은 글
if you watched my video on stock market predictions for 2023 you saw that I laid out three possible scenarios well since the posting of that video a lot has happened and one of the greatest investors of this generation has publicly stated that he thinks one of those scenarios is unlikely to happen and that is influencing how he is running his hedge fund who is this investor his name is David Tepper he is the founder and president the CEO of Appaloosa management which is a hedge fund located in Miami Florida Tepper is considered one of the most successful investors in the world having made billions of dollars investing in the stock market his current net worth is around 15 billion dollars and that net worth is generated primarily through his Investments that he has made over the last decades in the stock market now David Tapper is mostly known for his aggressive style of investing and his ability to make high profitable trades he tends to be optimistic he tends to be bullish and he tends to make make his money on recovery and growth I'm like generally an optimist you know I have just the way I'm that I just have that sort of uh lean that way some of his most notable Investments include in 2009 he made a profitable bet on the recovery of the financial sector after the great financial crisis he took on large positions in Bank of America and Citigroup and if you take a look at those charts you can see that that was a very successful investment he bought when everyone was too afraid to buy into those stocks another great investment he made was in 2013 when he took a large position in Netflix which ultimately became a super growth stock and had massive returns in 2017 he made another good investment buying a large steak in Amazon and as you can see Amazon from that time has grown tremendously he also bought a stake in Tesla in 2020.
that's right around the time where the momentum and fomo in that stock was at its prime and the stock had a massive move to the upside which is falling apart in this bear market so as you can see he makes his money betting on stocks not betting against them so when he says he is bearish you better listen in the most recent interview with CNBC he laid out three main points point one is that the FED still has a lot of work to do Financial conditions have not come down enough and the FED is not happy with where they're at right now mortgage rates are easing because the bond market is retracing junk spreads are also down meaning investors are again willing to take on more risk and the yield or the interest rate on the 10-year treasury has come down as well which helps stocks He also mentioned that the stock market returned since 2019 or about average which isn't really causing too much economic pain the second point that he made is that central banks are extremely hawkish they're telling us what they want to do the Federal Reserve has been very clear in its message there's also Global tightening like we've never seen before with a rising rate environment here in the United States and elsewhere and also quantitative tightening happening here and elsewhere as well and inflation while it is coming down from its peak is still a long ways away from two percent which is the fed's target so if the FED is telling us that they are going higher with rates and they have access to all the information that everyone else has and something has to give with the bond market which is pricing in a Fed pivot in 2023.
the third point that he made is that he is a leaning short he is leaning short stocks and he is also leaning short bonds um but for me as a as a hedge fund manager I'm going to lean uh short you know I'll be you know I'll be short bonds and I'll I'm not a great I'm like generally an optimist you know I have just the way I'm that I just have that sort of uh lean that way so it's like I don't I'm not I would probably say I'm leaning short on the equity markets right you know so right now because I think they're you know I think the upside down side just doesn't make sense to me what I have so many people call me so many central banks tell me what they're going to do being short bonds means that he has a bet that he thinks interest rates are going to continue to rise and that falls in line with his view that the Federal Reserve is saying what they're actually going to do because the cheaper a bond is being sure a bond the higher the interest rate or the yield is for that Bond the fourth point that he made which is a very a very important point is that market multiples are just too high the current price of earnings multiple and the S P 500 is around 18.
why do we have such a high multiple if rates are going to go higher coming out of 2009 in a very low rate environment we had multiples of around 12. if you have an estimated earnings of 225 which is way too high in my opinion and is just an example he threw out there and you tack a 16 price to earnings multiple off of those earnings you have the s p a 500 at around thirty six hundred dollars Which is less than the current price right now at around thirty eight hundred dollars the current earnings on the S P 500 is a hundred ninety and in this environment with a potential recession right around the corner it's not unrealistic to think that we have a low growth no growth or even an earnings decline but let's say that we see a five percent growth in EPS for the S P 500 that would put us right around 200 the attack a 16 price earnings multiple off of those earnings you have the S P 500 at around thirty two hundred dollars and that's a 16 yes 16 decline from the current price so there's a lot of risk still embedded in the market David Tepper is basically laying out outcome number three from our prior video of the stock market predictions in which we see higher rates and for longer from the Federal Reserve there's more competition against stocks because bond yields are higher so as a person who is managing your money you can get a pretty good return risk-free in the bond market so you take money out of the stock market which would result in a drop in the prices of stocks and on top of that because we have a higher rate environment for longer there is a looming potential recession still hanging over our head and that means we cannot price getting out of a recession until all of that is resolved it for sure is not the best Market to be long and that's why as a hedge fund manager and one of the most successful investors in the world he is currently leaning short while typically he is very optimistic in this environment it is so reasonable to be leaning short but that's my opinion at least comment down below higher rates if you think they are going higher for longer comment down below recession if you think we're going to get a recession in 2023 and the FED will have to Pivot and if you would like to support this channel you can do so by joining the patreon it's super cheap priced at only five dollars a month and it provides you value as well you get access to this private Discord server there is a dedicated channel in that Discord server where I post all of my live trades and here are some trade results of Trades that we have posted publicly over the last couple of months members will also post their trades in a dedicated Channel as well and in other channels as well we will provide news on the stock market we will provide briefings my personal opinions on the market overall and we will have discussions on trades and investment ideas that wraps it up for this video I thank you so much for your time this is we are investing and that's a wrap see ya
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