저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 단기금리(Fed funds)는 10년물 금리 대비 약 100bp 낮아야 하므로 3~3.25% 수준이 적정하며 2026년 초까지 도달할 것으로 봄. 이번 25bp 인하는 신중한 출발이고 50bp를 선호했다고 언급. 스티븐 미란의 50bp 반대표와 크리스토퍼 월러의 25bp 지지를 두고 트럼프 측 인선 변화 가능성을 논평. 비트코인 급등은 은행 시스템의 규제·낡은 송금 구조 때문이며 달러를 완전히 대체하진 않겠지만 중앙은행 준비자산으로 편입될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Joining me right now is the chief economist of Wisdom Tree. He is Wharton School finance professor emmeritus Jeremy Seagull. Jeremy, it's great to talk with you this weekend. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you, Maria. Happy to be here. And once again, we saw record highs this week for the major averages.
You wrote a book a long time ago, stocks for the long run, and have been bullish and right on this market. What did you take away from the market performance and from the uh Federal Reserve's comments on the state of the economy right now? Well, I think the market wants rate cuts. I think the rate, the short-term Fed funds rate should be lower.
Um, I actually think it should be around 3 and a4% and I think we should get there, you know, by, you know, early 2026. So, this is this is a beginning. It's a cautious beginning. I might have preferred maybe a 50 basis point cut, but we are beginning that cycle. Uh, you know, Maria, the the short-term rate should be below the long-term rate.
And we have the 10-year fluctuating between four and four and a quarter, which if you go through history, the Fed funds rate usually about 100 basis points under that. That would put that at 3 to three and a quarter. And right now, we're still above even with this cut 4%. So, I do think we have a a distance to go, but I'm glad we're getting there.
So, let's talk about that because um Steven Marin, who of course was placed on the Federal Reserve, President Trump's nominate nominated person, he dissented, the only one who dissented 25 basis points because he wanted a bigger cut. He wanted 50 basis points. That was the only denter. What are your thoughts on that and on the fact that Christopher Waller, who is a candidate for the chairman of the Fed, actually did not and he voted for 25 basis points.
Yeah. I mean, that surprised me. I mean, right away, uh uh that that he went for 25 and he was considered a top, you know, a top candidate. I mean, obviously, um, you know, we have, uh, uh, you know, Wars also, uh, but, uh, um, I mean, that that that he only went for 25 when clearly President Trump wants, uh, a 50.
Does that put him out of the running as one of the others? you know, it's Kevin Hasset and uh you know, there's um uh Chris and then Kevin Worsh are usually given the three most important. I think listen, I think Waller is excellent. I I uh and I think Worsh is excellent. Um and and you know I think that you know all three of those picks I think are are excellent there.
But I am wondering whether uh you know Trump might have second thoughts now without with him going at a at a very cautious pace when obviously Trump wants a more aggressive uh pace by the Fed. Interesting. Let me switch gears to Bitcoin and crypto because you wrote a great op-ed about this and you know you've been sounding the alarm over cryptocurrency saying that Bitcoin could tank the US dollar and its global power uh and become a competitor to the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
This is such an important discussion particularly as we're watching the dollar trade lower. What's your worry here Jeremy? Well I I think Tank is you know a little bit too strong. I don't think the dollar is, you know, going to not be the reserve currency. But, you know, Bitcoin has risen dramatically and I I think a lot of it is the staginess and overregulation of our banking system.
Um, uh, you know, the the fact is that, you know, you have to make transfers on Monday through Friday between, you know, 10:00 a.m. and and 300 p.m. And, uh, you know, that hasn't changed for 50 years. and and and and the lack of innovation, the high transactions cost, the 3% fees to merchants, uh the high wiring costs, all that uh is uh you know is is I think has contributed to the rise of Bitcoin and the alternative uh uh coins there.
And uh you know I mean I I really you know blame the the overregulation of the government, the Fed for not encouraging uh 247 transfers internationally and domestically. Uh they have just sort of just gone into a hole and uh really not supported innovation. But the private market has come up there and said, "Hey, you know what?
We're going to invent an alternative uh money here uh that has much better uh characteristics." And uh as I said, I'm not saying it's, you know, certainly going to topple the dollar. there's a dollar crisis. But uh uh you know certainly I think as time goes on we're going to see reserves of central banks begin to go into Bitcoin just like they still hold gold from you know as they have for hundreds of years but um as a as an alternative.
All right we will leave it there. Jeremy it's great to have you and let me just fully disclose uh Wisdom Tree firm my husband works there is the CEO of Wisdom Tree. Thank you so much Jeremy Jeremy Seagull joining us.
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