저자: ShankarSharma·VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 중소형주(스몰·미드캡)에 대한 기대는 크지만 업종 편차가 커 종목별 접근이 필요하며, 수출 중심 IT 서비스 대신 내수 중심 투자를 선호한다. 중소형주 투자 기회: 경영진들의 열정이 높고 인도 내수 시장 규모가 커져 중소기업도 큰 매출 확대가 가능하다는 주장이 나왔다. 구체적 수치나 목표가는 언급되지 않았다. 업종별 특성: 중소형주는 기술·물류·소비재 등 업종이 다양해 단일 테마로 묶기 어렵다. 일부 산업은 수주에서 매출까지 2년 이상 걸려 성장이 느리고 복제 가능성이 낮다는 리스크가 지적됐다. 출연자 포트폴리오: 드로나차리야(드론 교육), 섬싯 루츠(뭄바이 부동산), VIP 클로딩(의류) 등 소형주에 투자 중이며 특정 테마에 집중하지 않는다고 밝혔다. IT 서비스 및 수출주: 서구 시장의 경기침체와 지출 축소로 IT 서비스 수출주는 당분간 주목하지 않는다는 입장이다. 내수 중심 성장 포켓에 더 집중한다고 말했다. 2023 거시 환경: 2022년 유동성 긴축 이후 2023년 성장 둔화 가능성과 하락 추세 지속 여부가 논의됐다. 예산안 발표가 주식시장에 영향을 줄 것이며, 특히 세제 방향이 관건이라고 봤다. 수급·정책 이슈: 인도 경상수지 적자와 달러 부족이 문제로 제기됐다. 해외 기관(FPI) 세금 인하로 자금 유입을 유도해야 한다는 주장이 나왔으나, 실제 실행 가능성은 낮다고 평가했다. 대상 자산 방향 예측: 대상 목록에 해당하는 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 금, 비트코인, 코스피 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Good morning, thank you very much. It's nice to see you with us, Vijay and Shankar in the market. Vijay and Shankar are joining us for their part. What's up, so let's start from there. Vijay Bhai said that nowadays when he meets small cap companies, he gets a lot of energy from the management. These 25 trillion, 10 trillion, all these policies that the country is making, the corporates are making, they had not got this energy from midcap companies for a long time.
You too, in a way, if I say, are the biggest advocate and lover of this space. Right now, you see a very good opportunity in the midcap space. I think you have a better chance of coming on a platform with Unity Vijay than me [laughs]. Both of you like music, singing and travelling. So, if we talk about small caps, there is a lot of enthusiasm in the small cap companies.
And I had said this on another show that I was in Dubai last Sunday and I was preparing to come to Mumbai at night and on the same day I had five meetings on Sunday Punch Bowl. Did the promoters come to Dubai to meet on a Sunday? So you can imagine how enthusiastic this management is today to tell its story, we go to animation and other places as well and I would say only one region for this, leaving aside everything else, there is only one region according to me and that reason is that today India has become a trillion dollar economy, so on an average, every part of India, that is North, South, East, West and Central, forms an area of 100 to 800 million dollars, a block is formed, block means only North India and if we take only Central India Limited, I don't know how much, if there is a GDP of 400 billion in between, then you can imagine that each part of India is an internal GDP equal to several countries, so these small companies, you can understand that if someone is selling snake food in North India only, then that is effectively speaking, understand each hole, whether Saudi Arabia is selling it or a part of Europe is selling it.
So because of this, the addressable market, which we call the total addressable market, has now become so huge even for small companies that they do n't need to struggle to reach a turnover of Rs 200-500 crores. And if we are playing only in the North, by playing only in the East, we can reach a turnover of Rs 200-500 crores in the South.
So, it comes after time, it comes together. But which topics are you researching? What kind of management have you met? Don't mention names, but tell our viewers something about where you should research. No, small companies, many companies, and I want to say this much about the difference. I have a company which is a very big company.
There is a particular difference in this. So, I have some knowledge about the difference in the industry. Not much, but I have some knowledge. And this knowledge tells me that it has very long delays, it is very slow, and the replicability is very low. If you get a tender, get an order, then for two-two years, their orders don't come.
Yes, there is a lot of enthusiasm among investors about this, but the basic economics of this sector is that there is no single sector in small cap. Sir, small caps are of different types. They involve all kinds of sectors, technology, logistics, consumer products. So, I have invested in some companies like Dronacharya, which is a small cap company.
That one is in drone training, drone tech. I have invested in some other companies as well. I have invested in Sumit Roots, which is a small real estate play in Mumbai. I have invested in VIP Clothing, which makes the VIP friendship brand and I have not taken systematic investments. I have invested in advertising, which is a CAT company, from an overall perspective.
I think a small company will do well in the short term. So, I have not picked up any one theme. Just to give you my recent investments, in 2022 we saw liquidity tightening. Will there be a growth slowdown in 2023 as well? Will there be a growth slowdown in 2023 as well? The downtrend may continue, or you think it's time to buy IT and sustain it.
I'm not buying IT services. I believe that the cycle is n't in their market right now because their favorite market is the western market, and there's a recession in the western market. Call it mild, strong, or whatever, but there are restrictions on spending in that sector. So, I'm not focusing too much on that right now.
I'm playing more on the domestic side. I'm not focusing too much on export- oriented companies. I think there are enough growth pockets in India itself, as I said, companies in different sectors are working, and there's unlimited choice there, there's unlimited choice in terms of investment opportunity.
So, I'm not focusing on these export-oriented companies. Politics, services, and the equity market play a central role, and today's budget announcement will impact the equity market as well. The biggest thing is what can it do on the tax front? What do you think will be seen on this, how is the silver lining seen in this, because every common man's eyes are on what will the government bring out on the tax front, SpiceJet will definitely be there, so I believe that in this short, if I look at the problem area in India right now, the problem is shortage because you can see the outsourcing of FBI, there is a deficit in balance and payment, growth in export growth, it is not right to even say growth because we are sitting in this growth environment, so India needs dollars, a prudent finance ministry policy should be made, the tax on foreign SBI should be cut, there is no time for this, right now it should be said that they need dollar deficit in the current account, I don't think something like this will happen, but if I were the FM, today I would have reduced SBI to zero, today I do not need dollars and you should see the figures, January figures, that means outflows from India, they need to be brought back, India will fund our balance of payment deficit, thank you very much to us today Shankar, I know you are very busy to talk to us and Vijay Bhai, today
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