저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 라므데브 아그라왈의 핵심 메시지는 성장 순풍이 있는 고품질 기업을 골라 장기간 인내하며 보유하라는 QGLP 투자 원칙이다. 투자 프레임워크(QGLP) - Quality(좋은 사업·경영진), Growth(높은 성장, 최소 3년 매출 2배 기대), Longevity(성장 지속성), Price(합리적 가격 매수)를 핵심으로 제시. - 워런 버핏의 영향을 받았으나 성장성을 더 강조한다고 설명. 자본 효율 분류 - 기업을 great(높은 ROCE, 재투자 수익률 높음), good(높은 자본수익률), gruesome(자본비용 이하 수익)으로 분류. 복리 및 장기 투자 논리 - 연 25% 성장(3년 2배) 가정 시 장기 복리 효과가 크다고 설명. - 순풍(tailwind)이 있는 산업·국가·기업에 집중해야 한다고 강조. 투자 실적 회고 - 1992 강세장 당시 10 lakh이 30 crore로 증가, 이후 크래시와 반등을 거쳐 2013년경 약 700 crore 수준으로 성장했다고 설명. - 주요 수익 종목으로 Hero Motors, Bharti Airtel, Birla Corp, United Spirits, HPCL 등을 언급. 리스크 및 원칙 - 레버리지를 쓰지 않는 것을 원칙으로 강조하고, 규칙 1은 돈을 잃지 않는 것, 규칙 2는 규칙 1을 잊지 않는 것이라고 설명. - 자산 매매 방향 예측이나 특정 종목의 단기 가격 전망은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망 - 구체적 가격 방향 예측 없음. 장기적으로 성장 순풍 있는 기업에 투자하는 전략을 강조.
다듬은 글
chapter 2 ramdev agarwal this is a master class with super investors we are now going to learn some of the key insights from the chairman of motilal swallow mr ramdev agarwal a lot of things to learn from him the biggest one is qglp framework that he shared inspired by his readings and learnings from warren buffett where qglp is quality business look for companies with which have a quality business meaning the business has some sort of tailwind and it's good business the business with good quality management so that's the queue good quality business and quality management second is the business that grows i think this is his he emphasizes growth much much more than warren buffett is what he says himself so he looks for really high growth companies and we'll find out later that he likes those that double in three years revenue at the minimum and so he likes to go for high growth companies and longevity of growth is the third pillar and at a reasonable price you don't pay too much you buy it at a reasonable price so that's the qglp framework that ram devagraval shares that is his key framework that he uses for all of his investments that his managers in motilal oswal currently follow so his journey is pretty interesting so let's see what his journey was like so very big family six brothers two sisters he claims that he was relatively very rich when he grew up in the village near raipur studied in hindi but the key thing that helped him was his family had huge emphasis in education and they made sure that he studied especially a big role of his mother reading this chapter that his mother somehow always envisioned him to be a chartered accountant he had no idea what his chartered accountant is and long behold he actually becomes a ca after doing his bcom so goes from raipur uh and then eventually lands in mumbai right tries applying for uh it took five years to clear his chartered accountancy took applied almost 150 places got rejection from everywhere and uh but he loved reading balance sheets so he would like scoop up as many balance sheets that he could from anywhere he could find so he analyzed balance sheet uh and his brother was the source of savings he was in merchant navy and uh they had 30 000 a month of income that he could invest in a lot of it he could invest in so he started investing his brother's money and doing equity research was the next big thing for him so he didn't like ca at all is what he claims and then at some point where he was living in mumbai lokhandwala area he found this neighbor of his called mutilal and both of them actually had interest in stock market motilal had two other brothers in one in ahmedabad and one in chennai and they were looking for a broker and who would trade in mumbai so both of those other brothers were buying those shares in other stock exchanges and they had recently been cheated by someone in mumbai so they were looking for someone so mutilal and ram dev ji they partner to build a partnership and they they become a sub broker and start earning brokerage so the 10 lakh that they invested from brothers saving eventually that took them four years to to get to that investments but then in two years that becomes 30 crores so that's the biggest jump the 1992 bull run is where they made a lot of initial money and every brokerage that came every day they used to just put that money in and use the equity research background that mr ramdevji had and invested and keep kept buying stocks so 10 lakhs to 30 crores and then there was a crash 2 in 1992.
so 30 crores becomes 10 crores but again 10 lakhs becoming 10 crores right it's a 100x so that's a huge huge jump so that was his first leg up in terms of how he made the money then that same thing went from 10 crores to 2 to 100 crores in 2001 so over the next eight years that became 100 crores and then in 2003 crash uh 911 and others 100 crores became 30 crores but then eventually that 30 crores went to 500 crores in the great credit boom in 2007.
and uh 2013 he says 700 crores 500 became 700 so it's a huge journey but if you think about it it's a 30-year investment cycle and he's more than 10x in 10 years right so he's done much more but the key key inside of this journey is if you look at it overall he has consistently stayed in the market and he he had a vision he put money in the stock market and then kept consistently compounding so that's the key learning from this consistent compounding with great quality companies so what sort of companies did he buy the big wins that he had were in hero motors initially parthi airtel birla corp united spirits hpcl and so many that are listed in the book but a key thing to learn that he was able to quickly classify companies in the g's great good and gruesome great are those companies which have high return on capital employed and are able to redeploy more and more capital at higher and higher rates of return and good companies just have the high return on capital and gruesome are the ones that give you return less than the cost of capital so he's able to quickly identify companies and was able to put money into these companies and stay patient so that's what he's the insights that he shares with us is having the vision to see if you can at least at the minimum see a revenue growth of 25 every year meaning doubling in three years if only then he invests and he says that's a good strategy for what he used um and so that means in 10x in 10 years it'll become 10x in 20 years it becomes 100x so if you if you start with one lakh that becomes one crore 10 lakhs in 10 years where it becomes one crore in 20 years and that same thing becomes 10 crores in 30 years right so that's a huge compounding effect and and you only do that via companies that have huge tailwinds that's what he's looking for he's looking for companies which have a lot of tailwind behind them meaning they're going to become really big group finance was another investment that he talked about and he advised this to average up which was a really good one to say hey focus on 15 to 20 companies that you invest in which have a tailman tailwind business is good management is good long growth potential then keep averaging up in some of those focused companies value migration was a new book that i found that he referenced which i'll check out but he reads a lot that's another key insight he reads 15 to 20 books every year and warren buffett is his biggest role model he's also called the warren buffett of india in some sense maybe rakesh junjin nuala would be uh rakesh in january would be a closest match but uh he he does a lot what warren buffett does and he's inspired by him he's also inspired by michael porter's five forces which is what i found really interesting reference to the competitive structure analysis she's built a lot of these frameworks in his mind uh value migration like from scooters he saw the value migrating to motorcycles because of very clear advantage that the motorcycles had in terms of mileage that the motorcycles gave much doubled right so he saw those value migration he and he's able to see and apply these mental models that he has built around like monopolistic structure like you can see which companies have a monopoly and who can actually build that large leading share can employ network effects and can understand what the supply side dynamics demand side dynamics is and he can forecast these things which is pretty interesting he's actually using a series of this mental models to find out which companies to bet on right and in the end he he ends with these few things which are really interesting he says be positive for you to make money in the stock market you have to stay positive with the right value system and right behavior if you are not if a lot of people with even lower iqs can make a lot of money if they behave well in financial markets are positive for the long run have a vision as to which companies are doing well having a vision but then courage to invest and then patience to hold those are the three things that he says are really important a lot of people might not even have the vision so we need to first find out where are those tailwinds which companies are growing which countries are growing he says that even the best fishermen can't fish if there is no fish in that area so there's no growth if the country is not growing the companies in organ the industry is not growing then it's in material if you have good skills you're not going to make money so that was the biggest insight i took from unique from him which was look for tailwinds and have that vision clear and then have the courage like he every investment brokerage dollar that every investment brokerage rupee that he got he invested like same day and then he had the patience 30 years right he's uh he's investing and compounding for a long time and after a certain point like if you imagine he his 10 10 lakh became 30 crores and then 10 crores but 10 to 10 even if it reduced 3x from 30 crores or 10 crores he still made a lot of money so there's there's nothing to lose and his his values are not leveraging money really helped him because then he could sleep well he could invest and not have to worry about uh leverage and eating uh you know going down below what he's invested right so he says to find your true style he says there are million ways of making money you don't have to use all of them find out which one works for you find out the tailwinds and he ends with two rules of investing one is rule number one is don't lose money meaning don't invest in speculative behavior he doesn't leverage really good rules and then second he says don't forget rule number one right and i think he one of this is i think borrowed from warren buffett or charlie munger but this is a really interesting one right um and he he ardently follows them look at what berkshire hathaway has done they have published reports uh from 1977 to 2020 and he started that too look at that muthila loswall started doing that too and he is now 25 years that he has been publishing some of these reports uh as well so really interesting of how he is inspired by warren buffett and he's uh actually scaling this up so a lot of things to learn from mr muthilal mr mutilal is not his name his name is randee vagarwal but he he partnered with mr mutilal and uh he's a chairman today of swat so ram deva lots of interesting wins and learnings from him the biggest one look for tailwinds fish where there is fish right if it doesn't matter if you're a good fisherman if you're fishing an area that doesn't have a fish right thanks
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