저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 목표가 4700 유지(현재 대비 약 6% 상승여력)로 강세 전망이며, 현 랠리는 인플레이션 전쟁이 끝나는 과정에서 나타나는 재평가로 본다. 연준 긴축 관점: 많은 경제학자가 전통적 경기사이클로 보지만, 이번은 인플레이션과의 전쟁이며 기대인플레이션이 꺾이면 연준이 긴축을 늦추거나 멈출 것이라고 주장. 1년 기대인플레이션 3.3%로 소비자 기대가 급락한 점을 근거로 제시. 과거 인플레이션 전쟁 사례: 전쟁이 끝나면 증시는 이전 고점 수준(약 4800 언급)으로 복귀하는 경향, 27개월 약세장을 4개월 만에 회복한 사례 언급. 현재 경기민감주 주도로 4800 복귀 시도 중이라고 봄. 경기 전망: 경기침체에 빠지는 것이 아니라 확장으로 미끄러지고 있다고 판단. 2분기 에너지 제외 실적이 6분기 만에 전년비 증가로 전환, 실적 바닥 가능성 제기(Morgan Stanley Jack Gorman 언급 인용). 초기 사이클 매매 관점 제시. 섹터/종목: 1순위 섹터는 FANG 계열이나 소외된 후발주에 관심 권장. 시장 확산에 따라 AI 인접 통신장비주 Cisco, Juniper, Motorola, F5를 언급. 소비재 재량 소비 섹터, 특히 항공주(에어라인)를 인플레 전쟁 승리 수혜로 제시. 밸류에이션: Cisco 선행 PER 약 13배, Juniper 약 14배로 밸류 매력 언급. AI 관련 자본지출을 Cisco가 포착하면 멀티플이 20~30배까지 확장될 수 있다고 봄. 리스크/조건: 소형주 참여 여부(Russell 2000 등)를 관찰 중이며 확산되면 S&P 목표 상향 가능성 언급. 전술적 조정(VIX 등 요인)은 가능하나 이는 매수 기회로 보라고 조언. 출연자 전망: S&P500 4700 목표 유지, 상황에 따라 상향 가능, 단기 조정은 매수 기회로 인식.
다듬은 글
all right time now to bring in our halftime headliner Mr Tom Lee he's the head of research and a managing partner at funstrat also a CNBC contributor Tom it's great to have you here at post nine great to see you all all right so you got a new note out today I want to I want to make sure I point out you are the biggest bull on the street s p Target of 4 700 about a six percent upside from where we are right now next closest only a two and a half percent Rise um you put out this note today saying that we're not seeing the normal Fed Playbook with their tightening cycle this is an inflation War how does that shape or how should it shape investors view of the rally that we're seeing and your outlook for the rest of the year I think it I think that there's two things the market sort of framework uh I think is changing and and that's why there's momentum in stocks the first is I think too many economists think this is a traditional business cycle fed cycle tight until you break the economy but it's really an inflation War and the FED will slow down or even stop when inflation expectations break we got the umish uh one year inflation service I don't know if people saw it 3.3 percent that's an utter collapse in consumer expectations of inflation I mean just utter collapse so I think the feds a lot has done a lot sooner than people realize so did that change the Rules of Engagement when you're looking at this market and where to put money or maybe even pull or trim money uh yes a couple things if you look at past inflation Wars when the inflation War is Over strangely enough the market pins itself to the original level meaning like 80 82 you saw the stock market recover the entire 27-month bear Market in four months and I think what we're seeing today is the stock market is trying to pin itself back to 4 800 led by cyclicals because these companies survived an inflation war and you know they've been battle tested but I think the second thing that people have been sort of expecting widely held as a recession but instead of us falling into a recession we're actually slipping into an expansion I mean look at Q2 earnings X energy it's up year over year the first time in six quarters so I think earnings at bottom Jack Gorman at Morgan Stanley said the same thing at a conference that you know talking to all the CEOs his gut feels that the economy's bottom so we have an inflation trajectory that could get the FED to cool off and we have an expansion that's an early cycle trade that we see the old hives you also put out some fresh money ideas in this group you are looking at Tech but it's not the tech we've been talking about those seven names I'm talking Cisco Juniper names like that why are you feeling bullish about names like that right now and the tech space but outside the AI plates uh well you know our our number one sector pick remains Fang and you know we're recommending people look at the laggards of the Fang but that's not necessarily easy as Josh was saying to put a huge allocation to work uh there is a lot of evidence the Market's broadening and I think pretty adjacent to a lot of the talk about AI is com equipment and and so that's why we we've listed names like Motorola and Cisco and F5 but at the same time the consumer discretionary space really benefits from a broadening market and also an inflation War that's being won and that's why we highlighted the airlines is it also a valuation Story I mean I'm looking at Cisco's valuation 13 times award earning Juniper 14 times forward earning in that space are these you know below the trend valuations does that make this play more attractive in your mind or is it the business itself uh it's a little bit of both Frank because you know I don't want to discourage anyone when you have a secular story you don't want to be valuation sensitive so no one should really be disputing the PES of an AI play but when you think of allocated dollars in capex to AI that Cisco is going to capture if if they can have sustained growth the multiple is going to go up towards 20 or 30.
so there's a multiple expansion story on top of an earnings story so as I said you're the biggest bull in the street s p Target of 4 700 any thoughts about raising it uh you know we could raise it if breath is expanding I mean I think one thing we're watching is the small caps uh you know Josh is pointing out they are starting to participate but though of course you know investors need to be wary that nothing goes straight up so I think there is a chance of course a window where there could be a tactical pullback I mean maybe it's going to be caused by the vix or some other stumble and and we would just I think it's more important for the viewers to know that that's that's a dip they need to buy instead of thinking it's a top a stumble then it goes back up again yes all right Tom Leah funster at Tom thank you so much for being here at post nine
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