저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 2차대전 때보다 훨씬 나쁜 상태이며, 부채 디폴트에 가까운 구조적 인플레이션이 이어져 금과 비트코인에 대한 수요가 늘어날 것이라는 주장. 재정 상황: 2차대전 후에는 전시 세금이 폐지되지 않아 부채를 상환할 수 있었지만, 지금은 세수 여력이 없고 이자비용이 연 1조 달러 가까이 증가 중이며, 사회보장·메디케어 등 복지지출이 훨씬 크다는 주장. 디폴트 전망: 미국은 디폴트 이후 재조정을 거쳐 더 나은 재정 상태가 될 것이며, 채권자는 명목상 원금을 받아도 구매력이 크게 떨어지고, 연금 수혜자도 실질 가치가 줄어들 것이라는 전망. 인플레이션: 연준이 물가를 2%로 올리려 한 정책이 실제 인플레이션을 만들었고, 정부 CPI가 물가 상승을 과소 반영해 2%로의 복귀는 어렵다는 주장. 시장은 연준이 문제를 해결한다고 믿어 인플레이션 헤지를 하지 않고 있다고 진단. 금·비트코인: 투자자들이 결국 금을 사게 될 것이며, 비트코인도 일시 상승할 수 있으나 궁극적으로는 붕괴할 것이라는 견해. 경기침체 관련: 폴 튜더 존스가 제시한 경기침체 신호(장단기 금리차 확대, 텀프리미엄 상승, 주가 약 12% 하락 가능성)에 대해 직접 예측은 제한적이며, 침체 시 금과 비트코인 등 장기 자산 매수가 유리하다는 맥락으로 소개됨. 리스크: 디폴트, 연금 실질가치 하락, 인플레이션 장기화, 세수 부족. 출연자 전망: 시프는 미국 정부가 재정적으로 극도로 취약하며, 현재 주류 낙관론은 과소평가라고 주장.
다듬은 글
I said I wanted to talk about Robin Hood but I also just looked uh on the screen behind you and I saw the price of Bitcoin and I know every time we've spoken uh you you've had a take on bitcoin do you have a new take I I I I think I think now the barbarous relics and I would lump gold and Bitcoin together I think they probably take on uh a larger percentage of your portfolio than historically they would because we're going to go through both a challenging political time here in the United States and we're going to go through we've obviously got a geopolitical situation so I would I would say but High interest rates were supposed to be the thing that was actually going to be unhelpful to bitcoin well and I think on a relative basis look what's happened to Gold it actually has been clearly it suppressed it so you know that more likely than not we're going to go into recession there's some pretty clear-cut recession trades the easiest are the yield curve gets really deep term premium goes into the back ends of uh of debt markets right into into 30-year and 10 year and 7-year paper uh the stock market typically right before recession declines about 12% that's probably going to happen at some point from some level uh and you look at the big shorts in Gold more likely not in a recession the Market's typically really long assets like Bitcoin and gold and that was Paul tutor Jones giving his thoughts on bitcoin and gold during a recession if you should be buying them and welcome back to the channel Aaron from the Bitcoin Bros coming back at you with another video today if you're new to the Channel please consider subscribe we have new videos coming out every single day and in today's clip we'll be checking out Peter Schiff he's responding to what Paul tutor Jones just talked about in that clip he talks about what he thinks is going to happen with the US economy over the next couple of years and he also gives some brief thoughts on how it will affect Bitcoin you guys know how Peter Schiff thinks about Bitcoin the Bitcoin Bros obviously do not agree with him but I want you guys to check this out leave all your thoughts in the comment section below let me know what you guys think and let's go ahead and play the clip what he said he said that this is the worst shape we've been in since World War II meaning he believes that we were in worst shape during World War II than we are now and he's wrong we're in way worse shape now than we were at the end of World War II to because even though uh we had run up a bunch of debt to fight that war we had the capacity to pay it back uh you know we had a a very productive Workforce uh we were the world's wealthiest creditor Nation uh you know we had trade surpluses uh we had a lot of national wealth that could be tapped into and was tapped into uh because during the war taxes were raised significantly remember before World War II started nobody paid income taxes really except the very rich uh there wasn't a withholding tax where people's uh money came directly uh out of their their their their paychecks and there were a lot of other taxes that were added in 1943 as part of the victory tax to fund the war now when the war ended none of those taxes went away and so the government had all this tax revenue after the hostility stopped and we demobilized 20 million Soldiers the government had all this Revenue coming in from wartime taxes that were never repealed and so we were able to pay back all of the debt that we incurred to finance the second world war that is not the situation that we're in today we have no capacity to pay this debt we have no extra tax revenue now uh we didn't raise taxes really on anybody to fight the coid war or the war on terror or any of these wars we ran deficits and now we have this huge interest expense that's Rising rapidly closing it on a trillion dollars a year and then it's going to keep going on the debt we already have and you know people don't have the capacity really to pay higher taxes the way they did uh you know in the second world war because taxes were very low before the war started and even after the war uh you know they were still on average lower than they are now the problem is massive spending we didn't have this bloated Social Security program Social Security was very uh new in 1945 it didn't even start until the 30s there were very few people collecting it in 1945 you had lots of people paying the tax but very few people getting the benefits you didn't have Medicaid you know medic Medicare started but again it was a tiny expense uh compared to what we have now and of course we have a bomb care in addition to Medicare and Medicaid Medicaid didn't even come in until the 1960s um so the government is in a far far weaker position it's not even close so uh tutor Jones he he is so sugarcoating the degree of the problem and you know the fact that he's one of the only guys out there that was an interview on CNBC he's one of the only people that comes on there that even says we have a problem but even he isn't doing it the justice that it deserves because the problem is so much worse uh than what he acknowledges yeah and well we'll be much stronger Nation after we're finished with the default than we are now we'll be in much better shape fiscally right if a if there's a company that's bankrupt and they restructure and they get rid of a lot of debt at the under end of the process they're they're in much better shape so we're going to be in better shape after we do this it's not just it it's not just it's not just our creditors that we need to default on we need to tell people on Social Security on Medicare A lot of people are not going to get that money it's not g to happen what is going to happen is nobody everybody's going to get paid what they're owed except it's not going to buy very much so the bond holders are going to get their money but when they go to buy stuff with it they're not gonna be able to get much right so my way is honest and our creditors end up with more purchasing power my way the way the government's going to do it a dishonest way creditors will lose even more they're going to get their money back but their money is not going to have any value when they get it or very little value right so they're not going to cut your Social Security benefits they're going to give you all the money it's just that you're going to use it all up uh you know you know uh you know just you know with one bag of groceries right because it's not going to go very far is because the conventional wisdom is is so flawed when it comes to the outlook for inflation uh most people believe that 2% inflation uh is around the corner that you know maybe another quarter point hike maybe a half a point uh you know another year and you know we're just going to be back at 2% and then the FED is just going to be able to cut rates and everything is going to go back to the way it was uh in the last decade or two and and this is wrong this is just not going to happen you know I I heard this you know this fool on CNBC this morning you know saying that look you know the FED doesn't have anything to do with inflation and he said look you know for years and years the Fed was trying to get inflation to go up to 2% and all of its policies had no effect you know they were doing QE they were doing 0% interest rates and it had no effect on inflation I mean of course it did that's why inflation's so high right now it's because of what the FED did to raise the inflation rate to 2% that It ultimately went so much higher than 2% and it's why it's never going back down to 2% in the foreseeable future it did have an effect we're dealing with the effect now it's just that there was a lag right it took a lot longer uh and and part of it was hidden by a a CPI that understates by Design the degree to which prices were going up so all the years that the FED claimed that prices were going up less than 2% they actually were going up more it's just that the the government numbers didn't didn't reflect that but um get get it back to um so the the markets don't get this so they don't realize that they need an inflation hedge because they don't think there's any inflation to hedge they trust the FED they think the FED is going to take care of the problem the FED is not going to take care of the problem the FED created the problem and it's going to make the problem worse and so they should be buying gold and eventually they will be buying gold now whether some people buy Bitcoin instead of gold or in addition to Gold who knows right some people might decide to do that and that might push the price of Bitcoin up I don't know but even if it goes up it won't stay up eventually it's going to collapse uh you know so whether it has another rally before collapse is anybody's guest and thank you for watching all the way to the end of the clip if you haven't already make sure to hit that like button if you found any value subscribe for more videos let me know what you guys thought about what Peter Schiff had to say in today's video put that in the comment section below my name is Aaron from the Bitcoin Bros I'm out I'll see you guys in the next one have a great your day
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