저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리가 엔비디아에 대해 풋옵션 등 약 10억 달러 규모 공매도 포지션을 잡았다는 소식을 다룬다. 엔비디아는 매출 106%, 이익 120% 증가 등 호실적을 기록했고 PER은 약 29배로 나스닥100(34배)보다 낮다. 배리는 기업 간 순환 자금조달과 감가상각 과소계상 가능성을 문제 삼는다. 영상은 강세·약세 근거가 모두 존재하며 결론은 미정이라고 정리하고 투자 권유는 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry, the guy who predicted the 2008 crash and turned into $725 million just put over a billion dollars into betting against Nvidia. Meanwhile, Nvidia just posted the best quarter in the history of the company. Revenue up 106% profit up 120% and Wall Street's biggest bulls are calling it wildly undervalued.
So, who is right? The guy who called the last crash or the company literally reporting record cash? By the end of this video, you'll know exactly which side the numbers actually support and the one number that decides who wins this bet. Let's set the scene. Nvidia's is up roughly 1,000% over the last 3 years.
It briefly become the most valuable company on planet Earth. Touch a gap $5 market cap. Just to put the in perspective, look that's the larger than the entire GDP or every country expect to. Right now, the stock is trading around $228 a share. It's still just under its all-time high of about two $235 it peaked in May.
And the fuel behind this run isn't hype anymore. It's actual numbers. Nvidia's most recent quarter revenue of $96.2 billion up 106% year over year. Non-GAAP earnings of $2.22 per share at up 100 20%. Both numbers crushed what Wall Street expected and they are not slowing down. Nvidia guided for around $108 in revenue for current quarter.
For a company already this big, that kind of growth rate is almost unheard of. And here is the engine behind it. The five biggest hyperscalers, think Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, are expected to jump their AI infrastructure spending for all 800 billion dollar this year to 1.3 trillion dollar next year, and a huge chunk of every one of those dollars flow straight to Nvidia's chip.
So, on the surface, this looks like the easiest trade in the markets. Company grows 100% plus, stock goes up, everybody's happy, but that's exactly the story that should make you suspicious because the market has seen this movie before. Here is the part of the most headline skipped. Despite the run-up, Nvidia isn't actually expensive compared to the rest of the big tech, at least not by the standard math.
Nvidia trades at about 29 times earnings. The Nasdaq 100, the index of its old tech peers, trades at 34 times. Even on forward earnings, Nvidia's multiplier is roughly in line with or slightly above the index average. The analysts are now forecasting Nvidia's earning per share to hit 9.29 dollar next fiscal year, a 95% jump.
If that happens, at the stock simply holds its current multi- multiple, the some analysts analysts think Nvidia could be trading north of 370 dollar within two years. CEO Jensen Huang has a blunt response to bubble talk. His argument, this isn't speculative retail pipe dream stock. It's the 10 biggest, most cash-rich companies on earth building physical infrastructure.
They have already said they need compute demand in its words still outstrips supply. And honestly, the bull case is simply and it's backed by real cash flow, not just a story. That's usually that's usually a very hard trade to bet against. But right around here is where I need you to pay close attention because this exciting very huge respected investor looked at the same numbers and came to complete opposite conclusion.
Quick fact check before we go further. Pause for 1 second and ask yourself, when a company grows revenue 106%, where does that growth actually come from? Who's writing the checks? Because if you don't know the answer to that, you don't actually understand this stock. You just understand charts. Stick with me.
The next 4 minutes are part that actually decides whether Nvidia is the safest stock in the market or the most dangerous one. Michael Burry made his name being the guy in room who didn't believe the story everyone else believed, betting against the housing market before 2008 and walking away with hundreds of million.
In late August, he posted a piece on Substack literally titled "Nvidia, Friends, and the Rebel Alliance". In it, he had disclosed he had winded his short position against Nvidia along with Oracle, Palantir, Micron, and several other AI like names. Specifically, specifically Burry hold put option on 1 million Nvidia shares with a strike price of $110 expiring 2027.
In plain English, for Burry to actually profit, Nvidia stock would need to fall by more than half from here. So, what's actually argument? It's not that Nvidia is a bad company. Even Burry admits it's executing executing well. His concern is about how the growth is being financed. He argues a meaningful chunk of Nvidia's demand isn't coming from end customers actually using AI profitably.
It's coming from a web of companies investing in each other and financing each other's purchases. Nvidia invests in an AI startup. That startup uses the cash to buy Nvidia chips. A cloud provider borrows heavily to build data center, books that spending as a long-life asset. And reports show you earning that the cash flow really really supports.
Burry even stated a back for international shipments report argued this kind of leverage is being hidden inside normal capital spending and that some hyperscalers could be understating depreciation by 176 billion dollar between now and 2028. That's That's not a small technical detail. That's Burry saying the earnings you're seeing might not be quite as real as they look.
Now, is he right? Nobody knows yet, including him. His Nvidia short, as of the most recent filings, was still unprofitable profitable. Betting against Nvidia has been one of the most reliable losing trades of the last 3 years, but Burry isn't immune to being early and lonely before being proven right.
So, where does that leave us? Let's boil this down to what actually matters if you are deciding what to do with this stock. Reason one, the bull case isn't fake. Nvidia's cash flow, margins, and demand are real today, not hypothetical. This isn't a revenue storage stock. It generates enormous free cash flow right now.
Reason two, the bear case isn't fake, either. The circular financing concern is legitimate structural question. Even bullish analysis analysts privately admit that if AI monetization disappoints or almost any large-cap tech funds, you already own a large concentrated bet on this one company story, whether you mean to or not.
Reason three, the size of the bet means the stakes are bigger than usual. Nvidia alone makes up roughly 7.6% of entire S&P 500. If you own a total market index fund, an S&P 500 fund, or almost any larger cap tech funds, you already own a large concentrated bet on this company story, whether you mean to or not.
Short term, watch two things closely: hyperscale earnings call, red flags guidance gets too wise in real time, and any sign of AI monetization actually slowing at the application layer, not just the chip layer. Here's the honest Angular news takeaway. This isn't stock where just buy the dip or just short the bubble is obviously correct.
It's a stock where the bull case case and bear case are both being made by serious people using real data data. And the deciding factor won't be visible for another year or two. When you find out When you find out whether all this infrastructure spending actually turns into profit for the companies buying the chips, that uncertainty is exactly why Nvidia is the most watched most debated stock on the planet right now.
To be clear, nothing in this video is buy or sell recommendation. Michael Burry could be earlier and right, or he could be wrong or another two years well, the stock keeps climbing. Both have happened to him before. What matter is that now you understand both sides of the trade, not just the headline.
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