저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 개별 종목은 기업을 이해하고 장기 보유해야 하며, 경기·금리·시장 방향 예측은 시간 낭비라는 주장. 종목 선택 원칙: 자신이 이해할 수 없는 회사는 보유하지 말아야 하며, 10살에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없으면 사지 말라고 주장함. 일반 투자자들이 가전·자동차는 조사하면서 주식은 남의 팁으로 사는 점을 비판. 예측 무용론: 주가 방향, 금리, 경기 전망을 맞히려는 시도는 헛수고라고 주장. 과거 1981~82년 고금리·고인플레 시기도 아무도 예측하지 못했다고 언급. 경제 지표보다 업종별 실물 지표(중고차 가격, 호텔 점유율, 알루미늄 재고 등)를 보라고 조언. 시장 변동성 역사: 93년간 10% 이상 하락 50회, 25% 이상 하락 15회(약 6년에 한 번). 하락은 불가피하므로 이를 감당할 준비가 없다면 주식을 보유하지 말아야 하며, 하락은 좋은 기업을 싸게 살 기회라고 주장. 장기 보유와 성장 사례: 월마트는 상장 10년 후에도 35배 상승, 마이크로소프트는 상장 3년 후에도 기회가 있었다고 언급. 코카콜라는 주당순이익이 32년간 30배 늘며 주가도 30배 상승한 반면, 베들레헴스틸은 이익 감소로 주가가 반토막이 났다고 설명. 주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 실적을 따라간다고 강조. 본인 경험 사례: 던킨도너츠에서 10~15배 수익을 냈다고 언급. 카이저인더스트리스는 부채가 없는 복합기업으로 주가가 26달러에서 3달러까지 떨어졌으나 자산가치 대비 저평가였다고 회고. 폴라로이드는 100달러 아래에서 사는 식의 가격 기준 매수는 위험하다고 경고. 리스크와 조건: 부채가 없는 기업은 파산하기 어렵다고 강조. 3달러짜리 주식도 0원이 될 수 있으므로 '싸다'는 이유만으로 사면 안 된다고 주장. 주가가 떨어졌을 때 매수 이유를 기억하지 못하면 불안해서 매도하게 된다고 경고. 결론: 주식은 기업이며, 시장은 나를 모른다는 점을 기억하고 기업의 펀더멘털을 기준으로 판단하라는 메시지.
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foreign actually you really pressing down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain upstairs you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less while you're on a stock you shouldn't own it and that's true I think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a one megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk floating Point data IO array processor or optimized compiler a 16 dual Port memory a double diffused metal oxide semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma Matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16-bit dual memory it has a Unix operating system for Whetstone Mega flop poly silicone emitter A high bandwidth that's very important six gigahertz double metalization communication protocol and asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture four-way vendor lead memory a token ring and change back plane and it does in 15 nanoseconds of capability now if you own a piece of crap like that you will never make money never somebody will come along with more wet Stones the less wet stones or bigger Mega flop or a small Omega flop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money at Dunkin Donuts I can understand it I uh when there was recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people were still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I mean I just kind of you know I can understand it and you laughed I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful the money the public when they buy a refrigerator they got to consume reports they buy micro oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or what kind of car to buy they do research departments and they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get a mobile travel guide or California and they go to Europe they get the Michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on the bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings and It Before Sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions it's program Trading that is garbage they didn't do any research they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we're being driven to and it's self-fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way they're that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh Coca-Cola is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earned less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock company does well for stocked as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates I mean this is it if any interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire concerned there's not that many billionaires on the planet it's very you know I took I had logic excited syllogism in the study of these when I was in Boston College they can't be that many people to break into traits because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one could predict the economy a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and 82.
we had a 20 prime rate with double digit inflation double digit digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I studied all the stuff I remember every time we had the worst recession since the depression what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average year from now would be X that we're gonna have a full-scale recession our interest rate is going to be 12 that's minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that now I have to be I have to be fair I'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year the upturn or M1 and m23b and all these all these M's the uh I'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when I own Auto stocks I want to know what's happened to use car prices used car prices going up it's a very good indicator when I own hotel stocks Hotel occupancies you know chemical stocks don't know what's half the price of that these are facts if aluminum inventories go down five straight months that's relevant I can deal with that home affordability I want to know about my own uh Fannie Mae I own a housing stock these are facts you get their economic facts in this economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and uh interest rates Alan Greenspan's very honest guy he would tell you that he came from the chemistry he could tell what short rates is going to be the next six months try and stick them on what the long-term rate will be three years ago they'll say I don't have any idea so how are you the investors supposed to put interest rates if they had a Federal Reserve can't do it so I think that's uh but you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear Market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's gonna go down somehow if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get the 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific six to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen there'll be very people tell you about it after fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility in the market if you understand what's your own so I think that's the key the element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970.
1907 went public already had a great record they had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your steam operating small towns your trade they can only make in seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more States you keep waiting you get about Walmart 10 years after they went public I made 35 times your money you bought it when they went public you would make 500 times your money but you could wait 10 years after Walmart in public made uh 30 over 30 times a month you can wait three years after Microsoft went public if you knew something about software I know nothing about software if you understand my software you would said these guys happen I don't care who's going to win compact IBM I know who's going to win Japanese computers I know Microsoft Ms Loss is the right thing you could buy Microsoft again I'm repeating myself Stock's not a lottery ticket on every stop you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this it's a the uh you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of uh Smith Klein this is a stock that had tag in it and you didn't have to buy Smith Klein when tagment was doing printable trials you didn't have to buy Smith Pine with tagmat was talked about in the New England Journal medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought Smith Pine where tagging that first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you're a nurse You're a druggist you're writing all these prescriptions tag event was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and it was a wonderful appeal for the company because we just stopped taking it we also came back so it wasn't a crummy product that you took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the whole company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times a month I mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're out buying oil companies it happens and then three years later or four years later glaxo even a bigger company it's a huge company Bridge Company broad Zantac which is a better at that time an improved product you could have seen that take market share do well you could buy glass on triplinger so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry I think of people if you'd worked in the Auto industry let's hear an auto dealer for the last 10 years you would have seen Chrysler come up in the minivan you've seen your Buick deal or a Toyota deal Honda dealer you would have seen a Chrysler dealership packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on Chrysler a year after the minivan came out Ford enters is a tourist Sable the most successful line of cars in the last 20 years Ford went up Seven Fold on the tourist table so if you're a car dealer you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five Baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so in your own industry you're going to see a lot of stocks and that's what bothers me they're good stocks out there looking for you and people just aren't listening and they're just not watching it and they have incredible edges people have big edges over me they work in the aluminum Ministry I see aluminum Industries coming down inventories coming down six to eight months they see demand improving and America today you know it's hard to get an EPA permit for a bowling alley never mind an aluminum smelter so you know when aluminum gets tight you just can't build seven aluminum so when you see this coming you can say wait a second I can make some money when an industry goes from terrible To Mediocre the stock goes north and it goes from mediocre to good the stock goes north and it goes from good to terrific to stock goes north there's lots of ways to make money in your own industry you can be a supplier in the industry you can be a customer this thing this thing happens to the paper industry it happens in the steel industry it doesn't happen every week but if you're in you're in some field you'll see a turn you'll see something in the publishing industry these things come along and it's just mind-blogging people throw it away one of the things that I find a rule i i a couple rules I want to throw out and I find useful excuse me because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further going to go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record whatever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know it didn't get below 100 a lot of people bought on that base and say look it's got 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18.
and this is coming with no debt I mean it was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from 26 dollars a share to 16. I said how much lower can it go it's 16. so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American soccer visor industry so 14.
this is you know it's number 26 to 16 how much more can I go well at 10 I called my mother and said mom you're going to uh give me the skies or Industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10. well I went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh and I unfortunate this happened rapidly I would probably be still cattying around working at the Stop and Shop but it happened and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40 of Kaiser steel they own 40 of Kaiser Aluminum they own 32 percent of kinds of cement you know Kaiser broadcast and then Kaiser sand gravel Kaiser Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt tricky some people can approach that and so it's a real achievement they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this workout and they what they do is they gave away all their shares and their shareholds they passed out shares and kind of cement The Vessel chairs aluminum they passed off the Publishers and types of Steel they sold all the other businesses you got about 15 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock I got from 26 to 16 and then it could be 10 what would you do when you went to nine what would you do in one day what would you do and went to seven this is the problem that people have they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now thanks for the coin if you're walking around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists that haven't worked so far I've never seen them running into something the psychological Psychiatry Point I've never seen this is for the SEC to make it through as a mutual fundra so they haven't seen the help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company you have this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either people think RCA just about get back 1929 high and General Electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those beauties floppy disks Western Union the list goes on and on people saying don't come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I've had people call me up saying I think they're buying a stock at three how much can I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh and if you put twenty thousand dollars in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put twenty thousand at full and 50 to the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars into three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a recent research has done the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they're not sure at Walmart they're not sure at Home Depot they're not sure the great companies Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown capsules it's bonus zero and they're selling shirt seven they're selling a shirt at six and five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know what I should sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower can it go you know the uh now here's a subject that you probably uh all talked about getting close and close all right we'll drop that one out the uh the it's getting very close so it uh everybody has to go somewhere so uh the important thing is you can't get too attached to a stock you have to understand there's a company behind it you can't treat this like your grandchildren you have to deal with the stock and say I understand the company and if they deteriorates that the fundamental slip you have to say goodbye to it you have one rule you want to remember is the stock does not know you own it what we do here is go back back back back
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