저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 가치투자 방법론을 설명하는 영상이다. 핵심은 단순하고 예측 가능한 사업, 대규모 잉여현금흐름, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위(해자)를 가진 기업을 고르는 것이다. 코카콜라를 예로 들며 해자가 있는 기업이 일반 기업보다 훨씬 높게 평가된다고 설명한다. 투자 판단은 자산의 평생 현금 창출력으로 가치를 평가하고, 시장가가 그보다 낮을 때 이유를 확인해 매수하는 방식이다. 단기 시장 예측은 무의미하다고 보고, 장기 관점을 유지하며 단기 변동성을 무시하라고 조언한다. 가치투자는 기다림의 전략이며 시점을 예측하는 것이 아니라고 강조한다. 틀린 베팅은 리스크 관리가 없으면 치명적일 수 있으나 베팅 자체는 일상적으로 바뀌지 않는다. 주식은 사업의 지분이며 종이 조각이 아니므로, 투자 전 사업을 철저히 이해하고 실사를 해야 한다. 감정을 배제하고 부채수준, 이자보상배율, 밸류에이션 등을 담은 체크리스트로 합리적으로 판단하라고 권한다. 안전마진(내재가치 대비 큰 할인)을 확보하면 내재가치를 정확히 맞출 필요는 없고 대략 맞으면 된다고 설명한다. 실제 사례로 2008년 웰스파고(워코비아) 투자는 약 4시간 분석으로 결정했다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 장기 가치투자 원칙을 중심으로 이야기한다.
다듬은 글
ranked as america's 25th richest hedge fund manager in 2020 william bill ackman boasts a current net worth of over 2.2 billion dollars ackman is a famous american philanthropist investor and head fund manager but best known as a founder and ceo of pershing square capital management since he is most known for being an activist investor it would be a surprise to some people that bill actually uses some value investing principles activist investing is often both controversial and confrontational so it generates a lot of press interest that usually leaves the value investing part of his system in the background but that does not mean it is less critical unlike other funds which simply invest hoping that shares will increase in value akman actively pushes for change at companies pershing is invested in the investor became well known in the financial world for a short position on bond insurer mbia and his accomplishment from mall operator general growth early on in his trading career but we could say with certainty that bill ackman's career has been a roller coaster over the last several years he became a billionaire through operating the pershing square capital management hedge fund that he founded in 2004.
still over half a decade he went from being one of the most well-regarded hedge fund managers in the industry to having a string of well-publicized failures as a result of shorting herbalife and betting on valiant luckily he has managed to recover and nowadays ackman has an army of highly trained quant computer algorithms analysts and skilled people on his side to do the calculations however he is the brain behind each operation this is why today we're here to see how bill ackman evaluates a stock according to bill ackman the best businesses are simple and predictable besides these businesses produce large amounts of free cash flows this means that ackman opts for companies with economic modes that are durable competitive advantages and make it hard for competitors to unseat them by simply copying their product one classic example of a company with a vast moat is coca-cola co even though it's not very difficult to make sweet carbonated water coke is valued at orders of magnitude higher than a generic soda company just as warren buffett's berkshire hathaway ackman's pershing square seeks out high quality businesses these are expected to thrive for a long time and continue producing large quantities of cash any investor no matter how conservative needs to make certain assumptions about the future you need to have some level of confidence that the business you are buying will continue to generate cash while you hold it and so it helps to have a predictable and straightforward business rather than something where the prospects are less clear if the value of any asset is the amount of cash that asset will produce throughout its useful lifetime the long-lasting businesses have something going for them this is also why predictability is so important the asset needs to be durable but it also needs to be reliably productive after the value is accurately assessed an investor only needs to see whether the asset is trading at a lower price if so he then needs to find out what the reason for this discrepancy is if the reasons aren't disqualifying then it's worth the investment this type of philosophy applies to any capital allocator not just a billionaire activist investor bill ackman believes investors should look at making investments keeping a long-term perspective in mind which would help eliminate the fears of getting caught up in short-term market volatility for investors who have a long-term view buying a stock and experiencing a loss over the short run should not be a concern so if the company's financial outlook suggests that it continues to be a sound investment it would be pretty irrelevant how it performs over a matter of weeks or months he stated short-term market and economic prognostication is largely a fool's errand we should invest according to a strategy that makes the need to rely on short-term market or economic assessments largely irrelevant according to him a successful investor must retain a fine balance between confidence and humility so it's okay to go against the herd and look silly to many as it takes a while for the market to catch on warren buffett states value investing is like vaccination either you get it right away or you don't value investors use structural analysis as part of the value investing system to decide when to make a bet about whether something will happen so they do not fool themselves into believing that they can anticipate when that happens people who are not famously immunized into value investing often can't see the difference between waiting opportunistically for something to happen and attempting to foretell when something will happen waiting opportunistically for something to happen is not predicting arguments that the unchanging assumptions that underlie value investing our predictions are a rhetorical sideshow if you don't understand the patiently waiting then opportunistically pouncing rather than predicting element to value investing you won't ever understand value investing sometimes bets turn out to be wrong and they can create catastrophic failure if they are not adequately risk managed but beds like this one are not daily weekly or yearly decisions they are made only a few times over a lifetime according to ackman there will always be ups and downs in the investment world and even the most successful people in the world have significant failures from time to time what makes them unique and successful is their ability to bounce back from adversities so however challenging the times might be ackman advises investors to hang in there and patiently wait for better times to come one of the principles of value investing is to manage a share of stock as a comparative interest in a business a share of a stock is not a piece of paper to be traded based on what you think others will think or about what others will think about the value of a piece of paper to be prosperous at value investing you need to understand the actual businesses in which you invest ackman advises investors to conduct proper due diligence before making any investments you can do this by reading about great value investors and following their investment philosophies or watching their videos and listening to their words of wisdom reading is a good habit to learn new things akkman believes that before investing in a business it is essential to understand that business thoroughly a successful investor needs to possess the necessary skills of distinguishing between a great business a good business a fair one and a lousy one find a business that you understand as a record of success makes an attractive profit and can grow over time emotions only impede your chances of making profits however it's definitely challenging to ignore emotions in any market situation ackman insists that he is not emotional about investments and according to him investing is something where you have to be entirely rational and not let emotion influence your decision making just the facts an easy way to help accomplish this goal is to establish an investment checklist that can include a range of facts and figures company debt levels interest coverage and valuation metrics must be sufficiently analyzed before investment they drive an investor to examine fundamentals when making any decision concerning their portfolio companies that do not meet the requirements listed in a checklist may prove to be unattractive avoiding them may lead to more productive use of capital in the long run market volatility can panic some investors and they can become nervous about the probabilities for their portfolios ackman advises that investors ignore their emotions and use logic when evaluating stocks instead another bedrock principle of value investing is the margin of safety which is a discount to an intrinsic value that should be significant to be effective back in 1994 buffett wrote to berkshire shareholders that inherent value could be described simply it is the discontinued value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life what creates a margin of safety is buying at a significant discount to intrinsic value if you have a margin of safety you don't need to accurately predict intrinsic value which is a slightly obscure concept that different people calculate in somewhat different ways this explains bill ackman's use of the phrase reasonable band of outcomes the critical thing about intrinsic value is that you only need to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong if you wonder how much time you would need to spend on evaluating a stock ackman's answer might surprise you namely in one of his numerous interviews he stated that one of the best decisions he ever made only took four hours this occurred when pershing square acquired a 42 stake in financial services company called wachovia court citigroup had agreed to purchase the banking subsidiary of wacofia leaving the holding company intact this holding company still had a sizeable amount of cash and securities on its balance sheet and a strong wealth management business monkovia's stock had halted while the citigroup announcement was being made during those four hours ackman and his team went through the wachovias 10k and determined that the holding company was worth between 11.14 per share after the announcement the stock opened at 1.84 cents giving them a chance to build up their 42 position this is an example of the type of analysis that can be done by any investor willing to put in the work be sure to comment down below and let us know if we've missed something hit that subscribe button and turn on the bell to never miss an upload thank you very much for watching you
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