저자: TomNash · 외국인
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팔란티어는 2023년 들어 140% 상승했으나 Tom Nash는 $5 이하만 관심 있다고 밝혀 매수를 놓쳤다는 입장. 영업현금흐름과 자유현금흐름은 개선됐고 부채는 현금으로 상환 가능한 재무구조. 그러나 주식 희석(발행주식 수 7.13억→20억주)이 '침묵의 살인자'로 지적되고, 매출 성장률 둔화(분기 전년비 약 15~16%)와 EPS 성장 둔화가 우려됨. 주당 약 $15 수준에서 Stock Analyzer 기준 적정가 $1.3~$10(중간 $4~5)로 제시, 현재가는 고평가, 관심가 $6 이하라고 결론.
다듬은 글
palantir is up a hundred and forty percent year to date it was merely this January 24th 2023 the stock hit a low of 584 52 week high 52 week low all-time high though when our good friend Tom Nash won't reveal where he lives in January of 2021 he picked the absolute top of the market to say buy this company at 45 a share the self-professed value investor sat there and said this is a value play and we came out go watch our videos from the past we said we're only interested at five dollars or less it never hit that so I don't own any shares but again I could be wrong look the Stock's currently at 15 a share I could have missed the boat on this so in this video we're going to go over a lot of things here we're gonna go over some news we're going to go in our community and see what they wrote about the Bull and Bear cases we're gonna go over some analyst estimates of course we're going to cover our eight pillars in the company and then we're gonna finish it off with probably the most important question you're asking which is what's a good price to pay for palantir so whether you're a beginner or Advanced investor there's something in this video for everyone so make sure you follow along we want to teach this process it's confusing to start but as you listen more and more it'll become easier trust me it was confusing for me it was confusing for the other 200 000 people who subscribe to this Channel at some point but it gets easier over time let's check it out MO this is a 32 billion dollar market cap business if you want to buy every share outstanding 32 billion but the Enterprise Value is less than that 30.24 what does that mean this market cap is buying every share in the market this is buying every share and adding in the debt and subtracting the cash so you would actually get cash at closing essentially you're going to pay less than the market cap to own the company that's a solid solid balance sheet just to compare it let's look at a company like Nike Nike's a big company down a lot today their market caps 155 billion and their Enterprise Value is 168.
most companies have a higher Enterprise Value than market cap because they don't have enough cash to pay off their debt palantir does they can write a check and pay off all their debt in the company with a stroke of a pen that's a great business okay another thing I love about palantir 79 gross margin it's very large that means every extra thing they sell 80 80 cents of it goes to the bottom line that's incredible now some interesting things about palantir their net income last year was a loss of 48 million and over the last five years it averaged a loss of 460.
one of the benefits their free cash flow last year was 375 million and the last five years it's averaged negative 6 million so they're showing cash flow much better than net income much better than net income Mo isn't that awesome yeah I'd rather see that that's something we've always talked about with palantir there's also been some weird stuff remember the past what was the weird stuff that occurred on palantiro do you remember it would beat by like one cent per share conveniently every single time and they would have some new accounting thing they did that just barely beat yep that was kind of a red flag for us always make them beat by one cent Always by the way it was but this is the thing is like nine or ten quarters in a row of free cash flow yeah and that's a big positive here for the company it's um as far as I can see five six seven eight nine ten 10 quarters let's look at their quarterly Revenue numbers so I look for example here they did 533 million in the last quarter and the previous year's same quarter was 473.
that's a growth of 16 about 15 year over year okay that's pretty good that's really good but I would expect it more for a company like this right now I do know they've been trying to get a lot more contracts so they have to get a lot smaller contracts to get more contracts but their job is they're going to take data and answer your questions solve your problems whether you're a government or your major corporation and also one of the founders here is Peter Thiel who we love a lot he one of the he's one of the guys who funded Facebook to start he did PayPal he did a lot of great stuff so very smart man so MO why don't you give us some of the Bull and Bear cases in our community because we have our chat here and we we created the chat for palantir why don't you go through some of the things that people loved and didn't love about the company so siatra said it's a monopoly on what they're doing actually it's like one of three companies out there that are doing this so it's not total Monopoly but there is uh no other company that takes structured and unstructured data currently that he knows of it is run one of three there are new AIP products is very clever they will integrate large language models into privately operated networks it's one of the true AI companies that does AI well um oh they helped catch Bin Laden back in 2011.
did they really when nobody was caring for AI interesting now his uh we gotta verify that yeah what he calls crap case I like this crap cases not rare cases they have uh shares outstanding I'm assuming increasing 190 stop right there I want you to set up guys I want everybody to see this this is very very important this is that we call this the silent killer in investing what this is is it's sitting there saying look at the number of shares outstanding you got our income statement go to the very bottom 713 million shares five years ago 2 billion now this is diluting investors so let me explain how let's say a company has 10 shares outstanding and you own one you own 10 of the business if they all of a sudden go from 10 shares to 20 to 25 shares like that happened here you still own one share but now you're an owner of one shot of 25 you now own four percent of the business they just diluted You by 60 percent and that's what essentially happened here so even though the business might have gotten five times better you only saw like two times growth in that one it's the silent killer investing and I hate the fact they do that but now that they're cash flow positive it might be slowing down you'd think so right Moe yeah so this is interesting he elaborate a little more so they diluted a lot of shares in 2021 got rid of their debt so they kind of switch I'm not sure if that's at yeah I can't say it's true or false so they use so they issue share so let's talk about that let's say that it's true and we haven't done the research to verify or not verify that if somebody out there can verify that put it in the comments Below on YouTube and somebody in our community please verify and put in our general chat tag Mo and I I don't like that because why would you pay off lower interest debt if you think the company has a ton of potential if you think the company can grow at 20 15 20 a year on earnings per share you would want to keep your debt as long as it's lower than that so I don't really get that very much but it could be the company the company's way of saying listen we don't like having this debt outstanding let's remove that I think Mo just tagged everybody in the yeah great job it's not a this is more from him it's not a Value Place speculation growth place or way more risk having their earnings always beat by a few cents seems catchy actually a big reason to avoid so it looks like he's avoiding I don't just I don't agree that it's necessarily not a value play value is found in paying less today than what you think a company is worth and with a company with a lot of growth potential and free cash flow I think it's easier to figure it out now I do believe it's more speculative because I do worry about the potential of this the growth rate the growth has slowed and also also the fact that the dilution is still an issue for me and the the beating by a few pennies it shows me that maybe the and by the way I think a couple times when they beat there were options that were going to be exercised that came into play for those executive teams so are they in it for the investor are they in it for themselves that's the question yeah a couple other people uh J Money put uh both case Gap profitable no debt growth rates are still scaling margins are solid difficult switching costs okay so he means basically if your existing customer it's hard to switch to somebody else client base have Deep Pockets and or pre-approved budgets okay um possible S P 500 inclusion will help value volume long term okay great Fair case too many bleeping shares uh carp is a wild card yeah certain markets growing extremely slowly and or not at all not not scaling as quickly outside of existing client base okay so there's some issues there so one other bear case that I actually got from our analyst Dalton he said those those government contracts are year to year so it's not that they're guaranteed after one year they're year to year I never I did not know that okay and Keenan asked the question apart from just saying they Analyze That what do they actually do like does anybody know anybody who's used their product listen they're very very big kind like contracts like five ten twenty million dollars none of our neighbors are doing that and I imagine there's probably a lot of confidentiality on it who knows all right so let's take let's go back to the software uh portion of our community and let's take a look at analyst estimates oh let's look at the eight pillars first remember guys if you're part of our community you can customize your pillows up to 12 different all right but on the pillars a lot of x's yeah p e negative five-year price of free cash flow not really existent because they're uh they're negative as well shares out standing up 180 listen you're not buying this on our pillars no to me it's just saying the pillars are telling a story here and by the way you should never buy or sell based on pillars but these are the questions that I'll ask why are these like this this is the thing to me it's got to stop first I gotta feel comfortable they're not going to issue any more shares and dilute the crap out of me all right let's look what analysts are saying here I'm actually quite surprised that the earnings per share I think I said this in the last video too what's that that I can't believe how little earnings per share growth there is over the next five years holy cow yeah you're right they're expected to make 22 cents this year and grow to 48 cents in the next four years that's only two in two and like 200 125 growth yeah wow yeah I would have thought much higher all right Revenue growth that's the thing look at the revenue growth revenue is almost like this is revenue girls is two and a half times which is it's 138 growth because it's not people always confused that when you double you go up 100 so if you up with 2.4 it's 100 plus the point four hundred and forty percent so that I agree with you Mo it is not as much growth that I would expect that on the earnings per share yeah now the free cash flow may be a different story true and at the end of the day free cash flow is what matters and I like the fact that this company is showing more free cash flow than earnings by by a mile I love that completely so means it's our final question what's the appropriate price to pay for the company so before we get in the stock analyzer tool as you guys know part of our community is a community community of Traders and mo here is our expert Trader mo why don't you take a look at the charts and see whether you see anything from the charts I remember when it comes to the charts we don't care anything at all about the undermining fundamentals of business all that matters is what are the charts show so to me this is one of those companies where if you were very very patient you were going to do very well and the reason I say that is if we just look this is a long-term chart and you can just see over the past uh year you can see that it's just kind of stuck in this consolidation range with the exception of this little area up here so if we can get this thing to just break if you can be patient and let this break out above or below that consolidation Channel that's exactly where you're going to be able to make your money just be patient don't get caught up in all of the hype the day-to-day and the movement you can do that if you're day trading absolutely but this is a great opportunity to just sit and wait and this Probably sounds like Chinese to a lot of people but you we have a web class that's going to be coming up 12th of September at 2 pm Eastern Time yep sign up the link below it's an absolute free web class where we're going to talk about trading and how you can add it to your tools you know one of the things I like about trading mode is it allows me to like when I'm waiting for my fundamentals to get better on a company it allows me to keep busy so I don't force myself to always keep making decisions and this is one of those companies where I'm I don't necessarily want to own right now but I would absolutely trade it if I get an opportunity to do it absolutely and it can be one that can move a lot because there are so many people that hype it up and down absolutely okay so now the stock analyzer tool and remember guys this is our most important most our most used tool our most popular tool in our community the reason being it allows people to make assumptions about the future not considering balance sheet but make assumptions at the future of the business and it'll tell you based on your assumptions what price to pay for the company today so when was the last time we did palantir let's pull that up and see if we still agree with the assumptions palantir was done August 21st yep at 11 12 a.m eastern time let's pull it up and see if we still agree with this all right we did a 10-year analysis and again you can do it for 20 years here but we did 10 years Mo Revenue growth we did 12 18 24 what do you think I like it I will say this though okay go ahead the 15 growth in the last year kind of concerned me yeah um they really made an aggressive attempt to get more and more clients at smaller Revenue numbers yeah so you think we should just go low go lower on the low end you know maybe maybe eight maybe 9 15 and 21 might be better or eight I only I kind of like the 18 and 24 just because I think that's probably where they'll land okay but I do see your point can we just do 8 16 and 24 sure okay so what we did sit here is we look at this and this happens a lot guys we see information we sit there and change the point is you shouldn't be buying a company that's barely it's one of those things where yes these we always come up with different numbers every time we run the analysis but it's not it's rarely going from a point of like this is uh because the point of being an investor is you want to buy when it's pretty clear that you should own this company not when it's maybe sell profit margin this is the hardest one for me because they haven't shown a profit so we're speculating 10 20 30.
I think it's fine it's a fair speculation fine by me yeah profit free cash flow higher oh you want higher and current oh you want I'm sorry you're meaning it is higher but I agree with 15 25 and 35 yes yes I'm still fine with that I'm still okay with that now the next two questions what earnings multiple and what free cash flow multiple should be a sign of the company at the end of the 10 years of this analysis what should it be selling for in the market the market average is 15 but you want to go higher or lower based on a return on invested Capital its growth rate it's moat Etc so here they're one of three companies doing this probably the market leader I don't know who the other companies are what do you think Moe 15 20 25.
that's what we did last time yeah I'm only putting that in there because I really have no idea what else to put that's exactly I mean I don't know if it's a high of 40. I don't know if it's a low of 10 I just don't know no clue and that's what's hard about companies that are still in their early phases and still growing like oh it's an industry that it's in a new phase yeah I mean yeah it's a new phase industry companies yeah AI I mean people are like talking about AI too like oh they're implemented but they've been using AI in some fashion for a while yeah now finally guys what is your desired annual return you can get nine or ten percent from investing in a long-term ETF so obviously the risk of the preposition the higher assumptions you make the more return you need I think there's a lot of unknowns in this company a lot of unknowns so we actually had 15 20 and 25 as our desired annual return because we really sit there and say listen if it's gonna at this point the juice is worth the squeeze potentially but if you're trying to make 10 on this I don't think that's a 10 company I think you've got to get a higher return because of how many unknowns there are and the risk involved Mo what do you think I did 15 20 and 25 as well as I did okay yeah so guys we hit the analyze button do me one favor stick around for just one or two more minutes what's the end of the video we're gonna explain the numbers a little more detail because remember we're trying to teach you how to use our community and our software to make better decisions for yourself and it's just our process we're trying to teach so value a dollar Thirty to two dollars 850 to 10 and four to five bucks for the middle number if you paid today's price in the low assumptions occur you're going to lose 10 a year today's price and the middle assumptions occur you make five percent High assumptions occur in 19.
so there's a lot of potential here and we put in I have it on my watch list at six bucks I'm fine with that at six bucks if it goes there I'm gonna take a deeper look I will say I don't like the fact that they're the numbers that seem to hit on the earnings it's the right time perfectly that would actually get me to possibly never own the company because I don't think it puts us in the same light in the same line with the with the main management team so guys thanks again for watching again we have our community we have our um live stream next week webinar on trading click the link below sign up for free thank you for your time foreign
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